Why California may not reach the May 1 Biden target

Governor Gavin Newsom and California’s chief health officer love to hear President Joe Biden’s plan to make all adults eligible for coronavirus vaccines by May 1.

But they are stopping agreeing that California will open the door to vaccinations for everyone just seven weeks from Saturday.

Instead, responses to Biden’s speech on Thursday evening from Newsom and Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of the state’s Health and Human Services Agency, placed the burden of keeping that promise back on the federal government.

“We share the president’s commitment to ensuring that all adults who want a vaccine can receive it,” Newsom said in a statement on Thursday. “We look forward to learning more about the president’s plan and working together to make this important goal a reality.”

Asked during a meeting on Friday about Biden’s vision to mark COVID-19’s “independence” by celebrating July 4th with backyard meetings, Ghaly said: “We are not setting a date yet – but we are ready for something around that time if all these different pieces come together as we all hope. ”

A key piece, according to Ghaly, will be to provide California with many more COVID vaccines.

The state now administers 200,000 to 240,000 shots a day, Ghaly said, but it will need to distribute perhaps twice as much – 350,000 to 400,000 a day – to get closer to Biden’s goal.

“Our job in the state is to be ready for everything that the federal government (and) manufacturers can send us, and that is what we are working hard to be ready for,” said Ghaly.

Tight supplies mean that those who are eligible for vaccinations now – including people aged 65 and over, food and agriculture workers, educators and health care professionals – sometimes find it difficult to book appointments, while some Bay Area providers have had to cancel or stop scheduling new ones. .

And while vaccine supplies are not expected to increase dramatically in the coming weeks, California will expand its eligibility pool to more than 4 million people on Monday, allowing residents who have certain serious medical conditions, as well as public transportation and hospital staff. airport, among others, to get photos.

State officials said they believe substantially more doses will begin to arrive in April, as Johnson & Johnson’s single injection vaccine manufacturing increases, adding injections by Pfizer and Moderna.

California’s logistical ability to provide injections will also be crucial, said William Padula, professor of pharmaceutical economics and health at USC. Biden’s goal would be doable if the state and Blue Shield – the nonprofit healthcare organization with which California leaders struck a controversial deal to manage vaccine logistics – created a system that could deliver on its promise to provide multiple million vaccines a week, said Padula.

“It is possible,” he said. “But I don’t know if it is likely.”

If all of this happens, removing eligibility restrictions on May 1 would still not mean that everyone could be vaccinated immediately. If done poorly, Padula has warned that it can create an “impasse” for people who seek consultations, making it even more difficult for those who are less experienced to get injections, even if they are at greater risk.

A better model, said Padula, would be more of a waiting list system – something that California’s vaccination program does not currently have. In that system, instead of furiously updating the MyTurn.ca.gov website every day while looking for open appointments, people can guarantee their place in the queue by putting their name on May 1st and, eventually, getting a compromise when there is a available.

“They are in line,” said Padula, “and they know that their name will appear.”

The team editor, Marisa Kendall, contributed to the report.

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