- The launch of the EU vaccination is going so badly that China and Russia are now moving to sell their own supplies to Europe.
- China and Russia are using the contracts as leverage to extract concessions from Europe.
- The development has far-reaching implications for the relations between the powers and the West.
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The implementation of EU vaccination is going so badly that China and Russia are now intervening to make up for the difference, with far-reaching consequences for relations between the two powers, Europe and the USA.
“In both cases, there is a geopolitical agenda,” Dalibor Roháč, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said in an interview with Insider this week.
“Whether Chinese and Russian vaccines are effective and help [European] countries emerge from the pandemic earlier than their neighbors, China and Russia will have bought a goodwill in the region – at the expense of Brussels and Washington – which can profit at the moment of their choice, “he said.
The EU vaccine program is failing
The European Commission has been heavily criticized in recent weeks for the slow progress of its vaccination effort, which has been centrally coordinated from Brussels to avoid leaving smaller states behind.
China and Russia will have bought a goodwill in the region at the expense of Brussels and Washington
A number of factors, including shrinking supplies, production problems and a dramatic fight with the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, mean that the EU has received far fewer vaccines than it ordered, prompting Germany’s finance minister to label the efforts of “one total shit show “. Russia and China are more than happy to try to fill the void.
Hungary was the first European member state to lose patience with Brussels and follow its own path with vaccines. After his overtly Eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared “I’m not waiting”, he asked for 5 million doses of the Chinese state vaccine Sinopharm and 2 million doses of the Russian vaccine Sputnik V, accelerated his approval and started administering the two jabs in February.
The launch of the vaccine program in Europe was chaotic
Other European countries, including Poland, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, have also begun to examine Russian or Chinese vaccines, Politico said, although none of them have been approved for use by the EU drug agency.
The change would fatally undermine the EU’s approach to vaccine procurement, but for these countries, the calculation is simple.
“Politically, for these smaller countries, their economies really need this. It is hard to say no,” said Theresa Fallon, director of the Russia Europe Asia Studies Center (CREAS) in Brussels, in an interview with Insider.
“Everyone is struggling to get a vaccine, and if there is an efficient one that they can get their hands on for a little money, they will accept it. I don’t think they will think twice about it. The launch of the vaccine program in Europe has been confusing. “
Russia and China are using Europe’s failure to their advantage
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Whether Russia and China will be able to deliver on their vaccine promises remains an open question, Fallon said.
Data published by the health journal Lancet indicated that Sputnik V jab was highly effective in preventing COVID-19, but Russia has not vaccinated much of its own population and there is speculation that it may be struggling with vaccine production – albeit one agreement reached in Italy is expected to produce 10 million jabs this week could improve the situation starting in July.
Meanwhile, vaccines from China are already being distributed worldwide, but Beijing has refused to publish comprehensive safety data for Sinovac and Sinopharm jabs. Fallon also said that fake vaccines containing mineral water and saline that were shipped from China abroad could undermine confidence in his efforts to distribute vaccines to other countries.
If Russia and China keep their vaccination promises, it will be much more than a good public relations exercise for both regimes. It can also provide them with a geopolitical influence that makes it harder for countries to impose sanctions and easier to ignore actions in bad faith.
“China is using [its vaccines] not just to win hearts and minds. It’s clearly very transactional, “said Theresa Fallon.
Beijing has already shown its willingness to use its vaccine as a tool for political gains, allegedly delaying the shipment of its Sinovac vaccine to Turkey, as it sought to obtain an agreement from the Turkish government on the extradition of Uighur Muslims.
Both regimes will seek to extract concessions later
“Both regimes will seek to extract concessions later,” said Dalibor Roháč.
“It will be more difficult to argue in favor of imposing more sanctions on Russia when Putin decides to cause problems in the neighborhood if several member states are indebted to Moscow for reversing the pandemic.
“Likewise, it will be more difficult to argue even for partial decoupling with China if Chinese vaccines play a role in the recovery.”