Southern California is about to reopen a wider range of its economy in a matter of days. But, as has always been the case during the COVID-19 pandemic, the pace will be uneven – with some counties advancing more quickly than others.
In the long run, this probably won’t be much of a problem, especially if newly confirmed infections continue to fall and more Californians are vaccinated. But in the short term there may be a patchwork quilt where three of the state’s large urban counties – Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino – can begin a wider reopening before neighboring Ventura, Riverside and San Diego counties.
The first phase
According to state data released on Tuesday, Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties recorded coronavirus case rates low enough to position them to escape the more rigid, or purple, layer of the reopening script for four California layers.
The moment when they can officially progress to the less restrictive red category, however, depends on how quickly providers give vaccines to those living in the most disadvantaged areas of California.
In an attempt to address inequalities in vaccine administration, California is now dedicating 40% of its available supplies to residents in target communities – those in lower quartile of a socio-economic measurement tool called the California Healthy Places Index.
Once 2 million doses have been dispensed in these areas, the state will ease the criteria so that counties move from the purple to the red layer.
As it stands now, counties must have an adjusted rate of 7.0 new coronavirus cases per day or less per 100,000 people to move to the red layer. When the state reaches its 2 million dose target, counties with a case rate of up to 10 new cases per day per 100,000 people will become eligible to move on.
California has about 73,000 doses below 2 million, according to the latest available state data, which means that the goal is already within reach.
The state consistently receives more than 1 million total doses of vaccines per week. And officials are hopeful that supplies will continue to increase gradually as vaccine shipments manufactured by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna increase and Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine arrives.
Under the existing reopening structure, LA, Orange and San Bernardino counties would not be in a position to advance from the purple layer this week. However, since all three reported adjusted case rates of less than 10 new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people in the past two weeks, it appears that they will be able to progress to the less restrictive category soon after the state overcomes the obstacle of vaccination.
The latest average coronavirus case rates released by the state, which are adjusted based on the number of tests performed in a given county, were 5.2 in LA, 6.0 in Orange County and 6.7 in San Bernardino.
Next steps
After the goal of 2 million doses is reached in low-income communities, the California Department of Public Health will move county level reassignments quickly. They “will be announced the next day and will take effect the day after the announcement,” the agency said by email on Monday.
“Our understanding is that, within 48 hours after the state announces that the vaccine trigger has been fulfilled, LA County, along with other counties with qualified case rates, would move to the red level,” said the director of public health. from LA County, Barbara Ferrer, on Tuesday.
So, by the time the state publishes its routine level report next Tuesday – weekday level assignments have normally been announced – the new relaxed red level limit should already be in place, allowing LA, Orange , San Bernardino and a few other counties to reopen their economies even further.
Riverside, San Diego, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, however, would need at least another week to move to the red level. The latest adjusted case rates tabulated by the state were 8.3 for Riverside County, 8.8 for San Diego County, 9.7 for Santa Barbara County and 9.1 for Ventura County. Two consecutive weeks of case rates below 10 are required to get out of the purple layer.
What it means to be in the red
Red-level counties may allow indoor restaurants and cinemas to reopen with a capacity of 25% or up to 100 people, whichever is less. The face-to-face classes could also be resumed for students from the 7th to the 12th grade.
Indoor gyms and dance and yoga studios can open at 10% capacity. Museums, zoos and aquariums can open indoor activities at 25% capacity, and non-essential stores and libraries can open at 50% capacity, above 25%.
State officials also announced last week that amusement parks would be eligible to reopen, with restrictions, in red-tier counties starting April 1 – meaning long-closed attractions like Disneyland, Universal Studios, Knott’s Berry Farm and Six Flags Magic Mountain in Southern California could be just a few weeks away once again to receive visitors.
Capacity will be limited to 15% for parks in counties that are at the red level, with the limit increasing to 25% when a county changes to orange and 35% when it reaches the softest, yellow level. Participation will be limited to visitors from the state.
However, state rules are for reference only. Counties have the power to impose additional restrictions – meaning that it is not certain that a region will be fully reopened immediately after meeting state requirements.
Sisson writes for the San Diego Union-Tribune.