Conference tournaments are the last chance for teams in crisis to hold the NCAA Tournament to present their case to the selection committee. Or, they can make the decision out of their hands, winning their league’s automatic bid. We can also see teams winning their tournaments that could not otherwise “steal” a move, bursting someone else’s bubble.
Here is a conference-by-conference summary at this week’s major conference tournaments.
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ACC
ACC tournament schedule
This can be fully opened. There are some good teams in this league, but none great, providing the greatest opportunity for an outlier to run a race.
Bubble Teams
Syracuse – Orange starts the week as the second team out of my league. Their main problem is the lack of quality wins away from home. They are only 2-7 away from home. The best of these two wins is at NC State.
NC State – The Wolfpack is late and its stay may be short. They have won five consecutive wins to reach four games over 0.500, but only the victory in Virginia is significant. This is their only victory in Quad 1 and they are only 4-8 against the first two quadrants. It will take a lot of effort to get the selection committee’s attention.
Possible bid thief
Duke – After throwing themselves out of the bubble, the Blue Devils are just five wins from a spot on the field. They need to channel that mojo they had a few weeks ago, when it got hot.
American Athletic Conference
AAC tournament schedule
Houston is the only thing right, although regular season champion Wichita State has been doing better lately. For a team to get a free spot, they will likely have to go through the cougars.
Bubble Teams
Wichita State – Shockers ended up winning the regular season title and beat Houston along the way. They also did not play SMU due to COVID problems with the Mustangs and only played Memphis once, which represented a 20 point loss. They should be fine as long as they lose to Houston. Any other loss makes things nervous.
Memphis – The Tigers came agonizingly close to achieving the big victory over Houston that they needed to end the tournament. The big win over Wichita State is good, but it is difficult to see Memphis as a big team without beating the Cougars. They have two defeats to Tulsa, preventing them as well.
SMU – We don’t know much about the 11-4 Mustangs, which have been put aside with the problems of COVID since February 8. They were swept by Houston and separated from Memphis in the regular season. They also lost at home to Cincinnati, the only result that really stands out. They are not in brackets so they can play against Houston before the conference final, so if they get that far, we’ll have to see if winning Wichita State helps enough.
Possible bid thief
SMU – Although I have Mustangs as a bubble team, they may have to win the conference tournament to enter.
Big 12
Big 12 Tournament Calendar
With seven dominant teams this season, there are no bubble teams or any likely bid thief.
Big East
Big East tournament schedule
It’s been a tough year for Big East with COVID and injury issues and there may not be many teams on the field. Three appear to be in the upper half of the support, but there are a few others that may not enter.
Bubble Teams
Xavier – The Musketeers started the season well, but were hampered by COVID. They lost five of the last seven and only one of those defeats came to a likely NCAA tournament team. Home wins over Creighton and Oklahoma are keeping them afloat for now, but the margin for error is very small
Saint John – The Johnnies are a long shot. They have some big wins against Villanova and Creighton, but lost at home to Marquette and DePaul. If they don’t get in, that’s why.
Possible bid thief
Marquette – The Golden Eagles have been on the rise in the final stretch, winning four of the last five, including one in North Carolina. There is something to be said about being hot at the right time.
Big Ten
Big Ten Tournament Calendar
The bubble has been fluid in the Big Ten this season, with at least four teams passing by. More recently, the state of Michigan has been the team to watch, but suddenly Maryland is back for another try.
Bubble Teams
Michigan State – The Spartans made a remarkable run of the dead in the water to the middle of the key. The only thing that could slow them down now would be a defeat in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, and even that may not be enough.
Maryland – Just a week ago, Maryland won their fifth consecutive victory, beating Michigan State 18 at home and advancing to 14-10, with games remaining against Northwestern and Penn State. The Terrapins only had to win one to be safe on the field. Instead, they exploded big advantages in both games and now enter the Big Ten Tournament at 14-12. An opening loss fell to 14-13 for a very nervous team on Sunday. The selection committee will have to swallow hard to bring a game to a team above 0.500, even in a pandemic season.
Possible bid thief
Penn State – There aren’t many good choices here. Healthy Minnesota would be great, but that’s not a thing. Indiana has talent, but often seems lost. Penn State has had some good times this season. The Lions of Nittany swept Maryland, beat Wisconsin, VCU and Rutgers at home and won at Virginia Tech. Can they get five consecutive wins in this tournament? Probably not, but they will resist.
Mountain west
MWC tournament schedule
This league was established in the bubble, with only the regular season champion San Diego State among the four potential teams in the NCAA Tournament. Boise State is among my last four at the beginning of the week, while Utah State is among the first four.
Bubble Teams
Colorado State – The Rams have a game below 0.500 against Quad 1 and also Quad 2, but have no other losses. Their schedule is reasonable and everything good they did came from the league game. They must do this if they can avoid a disorder.
Boise State – The Broncos fought throughout the season, losing three in a row at the end. The first two losses were at San Diego State, which is not a problem, but the third was at home for Quad 4 Fresno State. They were also swept by Nevada in the regular season. They have the only Quad 1 championship win outside the conference, which came at BYU.
Utah State – The Aggies finished second in the conference, but are at a disadvantage because of two defeats in the third quarter, one of which occurred outside the conference. They are only 3-5 against Quads 1 and 2 and the three wins came at home.
Possible bid thief
Nevada – The Wolf Pack had some good times in conference games, including a sweep at Boise State and a win over Colorado State in their only encounter this season. They have a lot of bad defeats to form a team on a large scale, but they can be dangerous this week.
Pac-12
Pac-12 tournament schedule
Pac-12 had a difficult time in games outside the conference and this will likely appear in lower seeds for their best teams. My current key has USC as the Pac-12 team with the best ranking and the Trojans are only six. That said, there is only one team still in the bubble, and it is one of the stars of the sport in a year that has been difficult for that group of teams. Arizona would also be a bubble team, but they were banned from the postseason.
Bubble Teams
UCLA – The Bruins were defeated at the end of the season and are in a three-game losing streak to enter the Pac-12 Tournament. They are still on the high side of the bubble and should be fine if they can avoid a bad loss.
Possible bid thief
Stanford – Despite having lived a nomadic existence from the beginning, the cardinal had a good start to the season and has a victory over Alabama to his credit. They have been fighting in the home stretch, however, losing four in a row this week. If they can find their way, they have a chance to be dangerous.
SEC
SEC tournament schedule
The SEC has had a few teams come and go in the bubble this season, but six teams are solidly on the pitch and only one remains in the bubble. This team is in the top four.
Bubble Teams
Olé Miss – The rebels have shot themselves in the foot so many times that it will be difficult to make the outlaw tournament, but it is not impossible. They ended up strong, winning seven of their last night, but one of the defeats was one of their two on Quad 3. There are potential quality wins ahead if they manage to get there.
Possible bid thief
Georgia – Bulldogs have enough attacks to be dangerous, but can they chain four in a row together? They have victories over LSU, Missouri, Mississippi and Auburn, so they have to be taken seriously.