Last July, Take-Two announced that NBA 2K21 it would be the first game to ask for $ 70 for the standard edition on “next generation” systems (ie PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series S / X). Last week, Take-Two’s CEO Strauss Zelnick doubled his decision, saying the market was ready for an increase in the games’ de facto price ceiling.
“We announced a price of $ 70 for NBA 2K21, our vision was that we are offering a range of extraordinary experiences, a lot of repeatability, and the last time there was a price increase on the front line in the US was in 2005 and 2006, so we thought consumers were ready for that ” , said Zelnick at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference (as transcribed by the Video Games Chronicle).
This is not so surprising, considering the source of the quote. But we shouldn’t have to take your word for it. Four months have passed since NBA 2K21 launched on new consoles, and six months have passed since it launched at a lower price of $ 60 on PS4 and Xbox One. That should be enough time to determine if players in general are willing to spend extra money on an experience renowned “next generation” and whether it is worth repeating Take-Two’s price experiment, right?
It turns out that answering these questions is not so simple at this point.
Ask again later …
Much of the problem with the analysis NBA 2K21The $ 70 price tag is that the game was also available in a $ 100 “Mamba Forever Edition”. This special edition included the latest generation version of the game and an update to a new generation version, as well as a series of freebies digital.
“Many people who bought the latest generation of games are now playing on their new consoles after updating the game [through the Mamba Forever Edition], “Mat Piscatella, video game market analyst at NPD, told Ars Technica.” However, the original sale is still allocated to the previous generation version. I am not even reporting platform splits, tie rates or attachment fees for these new consoles because these data points are unreliable at the moment. “
Another problem, says Piscatella, is the small sample size. After NBA 2K11 publicly changed to $ 70, only a few other major franchises followed suit, including Activision’s Call of Duty Black Ops: Cold War and a handful of original PlayStation 5 exclusives. Most other major publishers got $ 60 this holiday season, including many that offered free new generation updates for players who bought games on older consoles, further complicating comparisons.
It is even difficult to judge any of these new titles against expectations so far, says Piscatella, in part because supplies for the PS5 and Xbox Series X / S were severely limited until the new year. “Given the small sample size and the challenges surrounding the update versions and the limited hardware supply, the data still does not suggest a specific answer,” said Piscatella.
The lessons of history
Things trembled much more clearly the last time console game prices saw a significant increase between generations. At the end of 2005, it was Activision breaking the $ 50 price cap for games, asking for $ 60 a Call of Duty 2 on the then new Xbox 360. The increase was even more notable, as Activision charged $ 50 for the PC version released a month earlier.
Unlike today’s price hike, however, the 2005 price hike was an immediate and unmistakable success. In December, IGN cited NPD data showing that an impressive 77 percent of Xbox 360 owners had purchased Call of Duty 2, even with the increased price. With such a strong display, it’s no wonder that all the other big publishers were comfortable following suit in a few months.
“They were selling so many copies of Call of Duty 2 for $ 60 that the rest of the industry was like, ‘Well, hell, if it’s going to cost $ 60, let’s go to $ 60,’ “Piscatella told The Ringer.
Thanks to inflation, of course, a $ 60 game in late 2005 would be worth more than $ 78 in late 2020 dollars (according to the BLS inflation calculator). But, apart from inflation, the sector has undergone many changes that can make a higher price point more difficult to swallow today.
“There is much more [price] variability across the board than in the releases of the previous generation, many games being launched in all types of price ranges, “emphasizes Piscatella.” [console] generations, we would basically have 2 price points, maybe. “
Then there is an increase in subscriptions to be considered. On Xbox platforms, for example, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter told Ars that sales of new software have generally dropped “because 50% or more of new Xbox owners subscribe to Game Pass and already have 18 million subscriptions “. It is too early to know if these subscription players will be significantly less willing to buy an important game at a price of $ 70, said Pachter.
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$ 34.99 for Centipede on the Atari 2600 it may seem cheap, but that 1983 price is the equivalent of about $ 90 today.
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Check premium prices for Zelda titles above other NES games in the 1988 Sears catalog.
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If you wanted Streets of Rage 2 Electronics Boutique in 1993, you better be ready to overpay.
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$ 70 was a common price for N64 software, and that in 1997 dollars!
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In 2008, prices based on high-end discs stabilized at the current standard of $ 59.99.
A higher starting price point may also make less sense for games that profit heavily from post-launch microtransactions. A big name game like FIFA can do more initial revenue from a $ 70 price point, for example, but it can still hurt EA if it “affects revenue from spending on the app,” said Pachter.
Looking to the future
The real proof that the $ 70 price is here to stay will come later this year. Until then, the market as a whole will be able to digest how the current crop of $ 70 games has generally fared from expectations. If they do well, you can expect to see a good number of impersonators in the fall, said Pachter.
Still, Pachter sees the $ 70 price tag as more of a “game-by-game decision” than a new de facto standard for all big-budget games. “People are going to pay [$70] for some games, [but I’m] I’m not sure if they will do it for each game, “he said.” Most publishers will watch and see what Take-Two does and how it works. “And even Take-Two’s Zelnick said the $ 70 price will be for a title” “per title.”
Piscatella agreed that “price sensitivities have evolved” today and that a $ 70 price range would not work for all famous titles. “My hypothesis is that the largest franchises that drive the greatest demand should not have any major hurdles with this basic price of $ 70 … and many will choose even more expensive versions with additional content,” said Piscatella. Ultimately, however, “it’s all about individual play.”