Sen. Alessandra Biaggi or another state legislator
Why they can win: Democrats have an extremely deep seat in the state legislature. Dozens of its 150 members are more viable than state senator George Pataki 20 months before the 1994 election, when he defeated Mario Cuomo, and it is certainly possible for some unexpected member to start a serious campaign.
The two most cited lawmakers are Biaggi and state senator Jessica Ramos. Both are part of the young freshman class that helped his party obtain a working majority in its chamber in 2018. And both would have a good chance of gaining the support of the party’s Ocasio-Cortez wing. Biaggi has already served as a candidate for the primaries, spending the past few weeks on the front lines of opposition to the Cuomo government.
A wildcard: Senate majority leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins, the highest-ranking legislator in the state Senate. No one would have a better chance of cleaning the room with a campaign statement than Stewart-Cousins, whose mandate leading the historically fractional Democratic conference was met with enthusiastic criticism from moderates and socialists.
Why they can’t win: Pataki managed to win by clinging to the then Sen. Al D’Amato state campaign apparatus. There are some groups with a presence across the state with whom candidates like Biaggi or Ramos can ally themselves – most prominently, the Working Families Party. But their greatest successes in recent years have come in legislative campaigns or in Congress, and they have yet to prove that they can be the deciding factor in a statewide dispute.
Candidates can, of course, build their own networks. But, especially for those who have minimal name recognition outside a district that represents less than 2% of the state, this is the type of organization they need to start very soon.
As for Stewart-Cousins, the biggest obstacle in her path is that she never hinted that she is interested in state positions.
Ithaca Mayor Svante Myrick
Why he can win: Myrick may be in a unique position. At the age of 33, he has been the focus of several effusive national profiles for topics such as his recent efforts to enact the country’s most comprehensive police reforms, and he would have as good a chance as any to win over the newly energized young leftists.
Unlike other progressive candidates who are equally well positioned, his tenure as mayor of a country town – although small and atypical – would put him less at risk of laying an egg north of Yonkers.
Why he can’t win: Although he can avoid the attacks that he is a “New York City socialist”, he is still far to the left. Democrats may have changed that direction in recent years, but there is still little evidence that positions such as taking police funding and establishing heroin injection sites will win voters in Hempstead.