07:00 PST 3/5/2021
in
Mikey O’Connell
Ignoring the best film outlier, the critics’ selections are frighteningly accurate predictors of who will win the Oscar.
Renewed criticism against the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and its Golden Globe Awards has prompted many in the industry to rethink the top of the awards season almanac – that is, who sets the tone in the race for the Oscars.
The Critics Choice Awards are a natural choice for prognosticators, as the second big compliment on the calendar arriving a week after the Globe, on March 7th. And while critics are not immune to controversy of their own, they are surprisingly reliable predictors of who will win an Oscar. The nearly 400 members of the Critics Choice Association film industry have voted in line with The Film Academy 73% of the time in the six main categories – best film, best director and four acting races – in the past five years. Chances are better in the supporting actress category, with the critics’ choice mirroring the Oscar without errors since 2010.
As for discrepancies, best film and best actress remain wild. In 2019, critics actually gave two best actress trophies – none going to eventual Oscar winner Olivia Colman.
This story first appeared in the March 3 issue of The Hollywood Reporter. Click here to subscribe.