Why Republicans may be open to raising the minimum wage.

Could there possibly be a bipartisan agreement to raise the minimum wage? The idea still does not seem likely. But it’s starting to at least sound plausible.

To begin with, Democrats’ efforts to raise the minimum on their own have hit an obstacle. Last week, the party abandoned its attempt to raise the federal pay floor from $ 7.25 to $ 15 an hour as part of its coronavirus relief package, after the Senate congressman decided it could not be included. for procedural reasons. They briefly considered a dubious and indirect alternative plan, which would have attempted to simulate a minimum wage by imposing a punitive tax on large employers who paid less than $ 15 an hour, before removing the issue entirely from the account.

In the meantime, several Republican senators have suggested that, while opposing the $ 15 pressure, they could accept a more modest increase. Mitt Romney of Utah and Tom Cotton of Arkansas, who have supported minimal increases in the past, have been the most expressive, touting a plan that would raise the floor to $ 10 an hour in five years and require employers to verify the legal status of their employees. workers through the E-Verify system, in order to prevent them from hiring undocumented immigrants. Their legislation is supported by Rob Portman of Ohio, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia and Susan Collins of Maine. * Capito said it could go beyond $ 10, although Democrats needed to “realize that this would have to be a commitment figure”.

There were murmurs in other parts of the GOP’s caucus as well. Bill Cassidy, of Louisiana, said recently that he would be open to “gradually” raising the minimum wage, although he did not specify a magic number. Josh Hawley, from Missouri, recently revealed his own account that would increase the minimum to $ 15 for companies that earn more than $ 1 billion. Perhaps the strangest of all, Lindsey Graham told reporters last month that he is considering a plan to raise the minimum wage at Waffle House – America’s favorite supplier of cheese grains – which he planned to share with West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, who himself said he preferred a minimum of $ 11.

“Waffle House is where rubber meets the road in terms of good affordable food and people working hard and living on tips,” said Graham. “So they have a plan that I’m going to talk to Joe Manchin about, how to raise the minimum wage and index it to inflation, which will be easier for business and get us where we want to be.” (Graham’s office did not return an email requesting more details about the Waffle House plan, although Politico reports that it would involve raising the minimum to $ 15 in “six or seven” years).

For those who are counting, there are at least eight Senate Republicans who are open to some kind of minimum wage increase. The main legislators of the Republican Party also did not repress the idea. “It is true that it has not been raised in a long time and I think it is worth discussing,” Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said on Tuesday after being asked about an increase to $ 10.

With Republicans signaling openness to negotiations, the Biden government, which previously supported a minimum of $ 15, is debating whether to try negotiations. “They don’t want to explode the world politically and pay a high political cost, but if the policy aligns with a smaller increase, Joe Biden generally wants to close deals,” a source told Politico.

If Republicans really call for Democratic concessions on immigration policy, the negotiations may go nowhere. E-Verify, in particular, appears to be an obstacle: the system is designed to prevent undocumented individuals from finding work in the United States and expelling them from the country. It does not work very well in the few states where it is mandatory, largely because of lax enforcement. But it seems unlikely that the Biden government will ever agree to impose a national mandate at the moment when it is advocating a path to citizenship for non-legal residents.

Even so, it seems that it would be worthwhile to discuss between the two sides. For Democrats, the incentives are obvious. They want to raise the minimum wage, but are being prevented from doing so unilaterally for procedural reasons. Specifically, the Senate congressman said he cannot approve an increase using the budget reconciliation process, the maneuver that lawmakers are counting on to escape Senate obstruction and pass legislation without Republican support. In theory, Democrats could choose to ignore the congressman or blow up the obstruction, but at the moment they have no support to do so in their caucus. This leaves bipartisan negotiations as the way forward.

As for the Republicans? Of course, it is possible that the Romney-Cotton proposal is an elaborate messaging exercise, designed to show the public that they are open to raising the minimum wage without actually trying to pass one. But there is good reason to genuinely think that the Republican Party’s long-standing opposition to minimum wage increases – he resoundingly rejected an increase to just $ 10.10 an hour in 2014, with everyone but one senator voting against – may be genuinely smoothing.

First, raising the minimum wage is an extremely popular idea, politically. He does polls consistently well at the national level – 83% of Americans believe the current minimum is too low – and tends to win resounding victories in state electoral initiatives, including in red America. Voters in Arkansas and Missouri approved major increases in 2018, and last year, a measure to gradually raise the minimum value to $ 15 an hour in Florida was passed with 61% support. The position of most Americans on this issue is very obvious.

Second, many Republicans represent states that already have relatively high minimums. Alaska, Missouri, Maine, Arkansas and Florida have pay floors that are above $ 10 an hour or are expected to reach it this year. Together, they also send nine Republicans to the Senate. All of these politicians have room to support an increase that will not bother their home business sponsors.

At the same time, many large retailers and other national chains have already adopted a higher minimum wage. Thanks in large part to a combination of a decent pre-COVID economy that created strong competition for hiring and a desire for decent public relations, Target, Best Buy, Amazon and Whole Foods, Starbucks, Hobby Lobby, Costco and a long list of banks have all voluntarily adopted a minimum wage of $ 15, according to a list compiled by the National Employment Law Project (some are in the process of raising it to that level). Walmart, the long-time face of low wages, is already at $ 11, although about half of its workforce is expected to earn at least $ 15 an hour after a recent outbreak.

With companies adopting their own minimum wages, there is now less lobbying pressure coming from the S&P 500 suite. Amazon has actually started advocating for a $ 15 national minimum, possibly because that would put competition at a disadvantage. And even some companies that have not adopted a higher minimum on their own have abandoned their opposition to increases at the state or federal level. In 2019, for example, McDonald’s announced that it would stop lobbying against minimum wage increases. The main reason seems to be that these networks have learned to deal with higher minimum wages in states like California and New York and have realized that they can pass on the extra cost to customers, if necessary – which basically turns a hike into a downward transfer – consumer workers who earn more.

Add it all up and you have a situation where both sides have some reason to compromise on this issue – Democrats, so they can fulfill an important item on their to-do list, and Republicans, so they don’t have to worry about being beaten in the head by a problem popular with many of its own constituents. Also, you know, it would improve livelihoods. I would not bet a lot of money that Congress will reach a bipartisan agreement on this issue. But $ 10 or $ 12? Right.