The clock struck midnight in Houston. The Rockets started strong after the replacement of James Harden, but now lost 11 straight games and plummeted to No. 14 seeds in the West at 11-21. Injuries have been his biggest problem. Christian Wood lost all 11 losses due to a sprained ankle, while Victor Oladipo went in and out of the squad due to minor illnesses. But it can end up being the best. Houston needs to start a complete rebuild, and that means dispatching almost anyone with value, including Oladipo, who recently rejected a two-year, $ 45 million extension.
A playoff run is virtually impossible, even if the Rockets stay healthy after the All-Star break. There are five games of no. 10 seeds, and have the toughest remaining strength on the NBA schedule. The most pressing concern is the lack of future assets after handing over the farm to Russell Westbrook in 2019. Houston will receive the least favorable of its choice, OKC and Miami in 2021, unless its choice falls among the top four. They also have only four main protections in their first in 2024 and 2026.
Removing your list is not just tanking. The Rockets already have one of the NBA’s three worst records, but if the lottery were held today, they would have only a 52 percent chance of maintaining their choice. They will not be able to increase these chances, which means that they must operate under the assumption that they will lose it. Their goal should be to acquire as many choices as possible, creating more opportunities for young players to develop. Houston has to keep reducing its deficit of choices, in the same way that Brooklyn did at the beginning of the decade, after giving all its future choices in an exchange for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce.
This is the model that the Rockets have followed in the last few months, accumulating choices by exchanging Harden (first four, four exchanges), Westbrook (one first) and Robert Covington (first two). But there is still more work to do. They have several other valuable players who don’t have a long-term future in Houston.
His only long-term building blocks are Wood and John Wall. Wood was one of the league’s biggest revelations, averaging 22.0 points in 55.8% of shots, 10.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game in his first season as a starter. He is the new face of the franchise, a great 25-year-old player who can succeed with almost any type of player around him.
Wall is a different story. The Rockets shouldn’t necessarily want to keep you around, they just don’t have a choice. Houston received a first-round pick from Washington when he left Wall for Westbrook, and he would have to give up as much, if not more, to send him elsewhere. It is not that Wall is a bad player. He is having a recovery season after losing most of the last two to serious injuries, averaging 19.9 points from 42.4 percent of shots and 6.1 assists per game. The problem is that he has a lot of money left in his business (two years, $ 92 million) for any other team to want.
That leaves Oladipo as the team’s biggest realistic commercial chip. Houston offered him as much as he could in an extension, but it still wasn’t enough for him to accept. He will be a free agent at the end of the season. It is unclear what the market is for him, but the Rockets cannot let him go for anything. Oladipo has lost 12 of 34 possible games with Houston and Indiana, and has not been healthy for nearly three seasons. The talent is still there, but it has been a long time since he has been able to put it all together. He averages 18.9 points on 39.1 percent of shots, 4.8 assists and 1.2 steals per game this season with Houston. Oladipo needs to prove that he can stay on the court and play an efficient basketball brand.
Miami and New York are rumored to be interested in Oladipo, and Houston is hoping that one of those teams will roll the dice on him. Both have the flexibility to negotiate for Oladipo without giving up any important part of their team. It is not as if neither team had great free agency options next summer, as many of the top names withdrew from the market. If the Rockets play their cards the right way, they can get Oladipo a future first and a young player.
Eric Gordon would be an easier fit on many teams as a knockdown sniper (career 36.8 percent of every 6.4 attempts per game) with the ability to defend both positions in the defense zone at a high level. The problem is that he is 32 years old and has a huge contract that will pay him $ 21 million in 2023-2024. There may not be a team willing to give up anything of value to take on this contract.
PJ Tucker is the player most likely to be traded. He is a 35-year-old man who is having one of his worst seasons in the NBA, but he is still valued in the league for his space capacity and defense of various positions on the attacking court. Even a limited version of Tucker can help many contenders. He will be a free agent at the end of the season and has also declined a contract extension with Houston. There isn’t much reason for the Rockets to keep him around right now.
The good news for the Rockets is that there may not be many other sellers on time. The new play-in series means that the top 10 finishers in each conference will make some version of the playoffs, removing the incentive for most teams to disembowel their rosters. Long-suffering franchises like Kings and Bulls probably can’t afford to explode if they still have a chance to make it into the postseason. This means that any potential buyer will have to shop in Houston.
The most encouraging thing for the Rockets is that their board, led by the new GM Rafael Stone, has shown the ability to find players in unlikely places. They jumped on Wood when many teams were still suspicious of him. And they found Jae’Sean Tate, who had a promising season as a great small ball man in Australia. The Rockets also acquired Kevin Porter Jr., who has been dominant in the G League bubble, after he fell out of favor with the Cavs when he was accused of improperly handling a firearm in a vehicle (a grand jury later refused to indict him), and later argued with the GM in the locker room.
The next seasons have to be to acquire talent. The ideal scenario would be to keep your choice in the 2021 draft, which features several potential players in the franchise. But even if they lose it, they have to keep taking young people and hope to find gold. Rockets don’t have enough of their own draft options to rebuild in a conventional way. They will have to be smart and lucky to get out of the hole they dug for themselves. That means dispatching as many players as you can on time and then hoping for the best in the lottery.