When the Houston Rockets brought in Victor Oladipo after exchanging three teams with James Harden, the question was whether Oladipo would stay in Houston for a long time. We still don’t know the answer. On Monday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Oladipo declined Houston’s two-year $ 45.2 million extension offer, almost guaranteeing that he will enter this summer as an unrestricted free agent.
In the two years, $ 45.2 million was the most that the Rockets could offer before the summer. Once the free agency starts, Houston would be eligible to offer Oladipo as high as $ 151 million in four years or $ 195 million in five, by Wojnarowski, while another team would be eligible to offer up to four years, $ 145 million.
Given that the Rockets traded Caris LeVert, a good player under the team’s control until 2023, for Oladipo, you would think they wouldn’t want to lose you for anything this summer. But perhaps that is not true. Maybe they prefer that the money just comes out of the books. The Rockets could reach about $ 20 million in cap space this summer if they renounce Oladipo, Dante Exum and PJ Tucker, the last of whom they could negotiate before the March 25 deadline for a contract to expire.
If the Rockets decide that they want more than just the space limit for Oladipo, they could switch him over the next few weeks and try to get a choice and / or a good young player with the win back. They could hang on to it and try to trade in the summer, which has recently become a more popular movement than it used to be. Or, again, they could get into a bidding war to keep Oladipo in the long run.
It is hard to imagine Oladipo, who is shooting with less than 40 percent of the field and less than 30 percent of 3 in his time with the Rockets, getting anywhere close to a maximum offer from anyone. Despite these offensive fights, you will hear Oladipo’s name a lot as the negotiation deadline approaches. Paying him for a long term is a riskier proposition than a competitor who tries to attack him in the short term with an expired contract. He showed offensive flashes of his former self, and he would help anyone on the defensive.
If Oladipo is negotiated with a playoff team and he performs well on a big stage, something in the range of $ 100 million in four years looks like a rough ceiling in terms of what he could command this summer – $ 20 million less than the Hornets gave Gordon Hayward, another ex-All-Star who never regained his form before his injury before reaching the open market.
Would the Rockets offer that kind of money? It was reported that Oladipo had long wanted to end the Miami Heat, which would be able to generate more than enough capitalization space to hire him, assuming he does not run a maximum of four years. The Knicks will have money and it is rumored to be monitoring the status of a number of veterans who have already won – CJ McCollum and Zach LaVine, notably – as they have suddenly become a playoff candidate under Tom Thibodeau.
Whatever happens, it is not surprising that Oladipo refused this two-year deal on Monday. Whether he comes from Houston or someone else, he is almost certain to have a decent long-term offer this summer, when the list of free agents will be relatively short.