When it comes to predicting Golden Globe winners on Sunday night, you must imagine a series of conflicting schedules. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which organizes the ceremony, likes to hand its trophies over to films that already have a lot of Oscar momentum, but the small size of the group – about 90 eccentric journalists who vote for the Globe – leaves all categories open to one. shock winner.
This year, the pandemic deprived members of the association of the chance to live with big celebrities, a glamorous privilege that can often influence their teams. HFPA is also under attack after a series of recent articles exposed double-dealing practices and an island affiliation that does not include black voters, which may explain why none of the acclaimed groups led by blacks in the past year, such as “Da 5 Bloods ”And“ One Night in Miami ”did Globes’ best drama cast.
Will voters try to mitigate these controversies by choosing a diverse set of worthy winners or will the traditional anarchy of Globo prevail? I expect a little of both. Here are my projections for this year’s Golden Globe film races.
Best Actress in a Film, Drama
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “United States vs. Billie Holiday ”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising young woman”
That race could reach McDormand and Mulligan, each leading zeitgeisty films that were also nominated in the drama, director and screenplay categories. Since Mulligan’s role as the fully contemporary avenger Cassie is a major change of pace for a star often seen in period pieces, I design her to win in a squeaker.
Best Actor in a Film, Drama
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian”
Boseman’s status as an Oscar favorite is so presumed that, if the Globes followed a different path, they would provoke more scrutiny and controversy at a time when they would hardly need it. This is not to say that the category lacks powerful alternatives: in any other year, Hopkins, Ahmed or Oldman can easily win here. But not this time.
Best Picture, Drama
“The father”
“Mank”
“Nomadland”
“Promising young woman”
“The Chicago 7 Trial”
With all his strength, “The Father” and “Mank” seems less urgent when faced with three Big Issue dramas. “Promising young woman” would be the provocative and spiky choice, but voters at the Globe tend to gravitate towards a film with a high chance of winning the Oscar for best film and, by that metric, “Nomadland” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7 ”have the highest hopes. It could happen anyway, but I’m projecting “Chicago 7”, written and directed by two-time Globe winner Aaron Sorkin.
Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Kate Hudson, “Music”
Michelle Pfeiffer, “French Exit”
Rosamund Pike, “I Care a Lot”
Anya Taylor-Joy, “Emma”
Bakalova performed one of the most important performances of the year as Borat’s daughter, and although she will campaign as a supporting actress for the Oscars, the Globes’ comedy / musical categories offer her an excellent opportunity to enter the main race and get a high – profile trophy. Despite a handful of contenders with long hopes at the Oscars, she is as good as gold.
Best Actor, Musical or Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
James Corden, “The Prom”
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton”
Dev Patel, “The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, “Palm Springs”
Baron Cohen won this Golden Globe for his first “Borat”, and his only real competition here is dear Miranda. Still, “Hamilton” peaked five years ago, and HFPA doesn’t like to feel like the last one to arrive at a party. Expect more votes for Baron Cohen, whose acceptance speech could spice up a socially distant night.
Best film, musical or comedy
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
“Hamilton”
“Song”
“Palm Springs”
“The prom”
“Palm Springs” and “The Prom” are not significant threats to the Globe, and the nominations for “Music” have been so ridiculed that voters would probably shy away from further recognition for the Sia-led fiasco. That leaves only “Hamilton” and “Borat”, and since the recording of “Hamilton” at Disney + will not be eligible for an Oscar, the HFPA should favor the playful in the suit of Baron Cohen.
Best supporting actress in a film
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Helena Zengel, “News of the World”
Just two years ago, Close won best actress in drama for “The Wife”, while Colman won best actress in musical or comedy for “The Favorite”. What happens when you put these two Globo winners face to face in this year’s supporting actress race? This potentially creates enough daylight for Seyfried to escape, but I think Colman still has the edge against Close for a film with better criticism that got Globe nominations across the board.
Best supporting actor in a film
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Jared Leto, “The Little Things”
Bill Murray, “On the Rocks”
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”
With Odom being considered handsome in the best song category and Baron Cohen more likely to win for “Borat”, will voters spread the wealth here and choose someone else? Kaluuya’s magnetic performance as the leader of the Black Panthers, Fred Hampton, has been very successful with the Oscars, but the Globes have gone crazy in that category before – or you don’t remember when “Night Animals” star Aaron Taylor-Johnson defeated Mahershala Ali from “Moonlight”? That is why I am tempted to predict a victory for Leto, who found traction in the disconcerting prizes for “The Little Things”: it simply would not be Globo without a chaotic victory at the top of the show.
Best director
Emerald Fennell, “Promising young woman”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Regina King, “One Night in Miami”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”
This category usually goes to the most technically complicated film, which seems to favor Fincher for the shiny and expensive “Mank”. But Zhao is considered an Oscar favorite and the HFPA has been criticized for rarely recognizing women in this race. I believe that Zhao will become the first female director to triumph here in almost four decades, since Barbra Streisand won this Globe for “Yentl”.
Best Screenplay
Emerald Fennell, “Promising young woman”
Jack Fincher, “Mank”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller, “The Father”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”
He is the promising Fennell against veteran Sorkin in this category. If the HFPA decides that Zhao is the choice of the best director, the script race offers a much more natural place to reward Sorkin, and I hope voters will seize the opportunity.
Best Foreign Film
“Another round”
“La Llorona”
“Life ahead”
“Minari”
“Two of us”
The story of the immigrant “Minari” couldn’t be more American, but an outdated HFPA rule moves it to the foreign film category because its characters generally speak Korean, and an even more pernicious rule decrees that those foreign films are then not eligible. for a best drama nomination. Knowing this, Globo will probably reward “Minari” in an attempt to contain all the controversy, but the real victory would be to break these rules completely next time.
Best animated feature film
“The Croods: A New Age”
“Forward”
“About the Moon”
“Soul”
“Wolfwalkers”
The much-admired “Wolfwalkers” has unlucky potential, and Globes usually choose that: last year, the much more modest “Lost Link” won giants like “Toy Story 4” and “Frozen 2.” That said, I’m still projecting Pixar’s “Soul” to win, as it showed enough strength with HFPA to get another nomination. By the way …
Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, “The Midnight Sky”
Ludwig Goransson, “Tenet”
James Newton Howard, “News of the World”
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “Mank”
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste, “Soul”
Reznor and Ross are doubly nominated here – and will likely repeat at the Oscars – but in the category of best soundtrack, you have to assume that the film about music has the advantage. Expect your work with Jon Batiste on “Soul” to triumph.
Best Original Song
“Fight for you” (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
“Hear My Voice” (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
“Io Sì” (“The Future Life”)
“Speak now” (“One night in Miami”)
“Tigress & Tweed” (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”)
Leslie Odom Jr. and Andra Day received two nominations for acting and composition in their films, but the Globes clearly preferred “One Night in Miami” (which also received a nomination for best director) to Billie Holiday’s Day Bio film, then ” Speak Now, ”which Odom wrote with Sam Ashworth, has a better chance of being heard here.