Photo-illustration: Vulture and searchlight images
Every week between now and March 15, when Oscar nominations are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine changes in the run of the Oscars this year. In our “Oscar FuturesColumn, we will inform you about internal gossip, analyze entirely new developments and monitor the buzz of the industry to find out who is up, who is down and who is leading the race for the coveted Oscar nomination.
Best photo
Nomadland
Congratulations, Nomadland: You are the first candidate for Best Film to be met with constant political criticism. (I would say that the level of fury is now at “resistance” and has not yet escalated to “controversy”, let alone “reaction”.) The question is whether the treatment of the film for Amazon’s call centers smoothes the company’s issues of real-life labor rights – a fair question to ask, certainly, but one that I suspect will find it hard to resonate with members of the Academy, who inhabit an epistemological universe where the corporate giant is much less controversial. In fact, many in Hollywood can trace their salaries down to Jeff Bezos’s quest for Oscar gold, so I suspect that this narrative will likely remain just a Twitter movie. Still, it is a sign that Nomadland carries the traditional brand of a favorite: a giant target.
The Chicago Trial 7
About that, NomadlandThe biggest competition in the country continues its successful run through the precursors. The experimental drama won a surprise nod to this week’s nominations for the Art Directors Guild, overcoming Emma. for a vacancy in the Period category, despite the fact that about 73% of his execution time is spent in court. After the stunt set nomination at SAG, this is the second unexpected choice for Aaron Sorkin’s film, which has appeared in all guilds so far except Hair & Makeup. (Only Promising young woman did better.) Chicago 7 is gaining momentum and has managed to avoid any major negative reaction. We will see if both are still true after the Golden Globes.
Current predix
The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Black Bottom by Ma Rainey, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One night in miami, Promising young woman, The Chicago Trial 7
Best director
Lee Daniels, United States x Billie Holiday
It’s Christmas in February! Since Oscar has extended its window of eligibility by two months, this weekend brings a lot of last-minute participants to the race. Daniels’ Billie Holiday biopic is one of them, and while critics have high praise for star Andra Day, they blend the director’s maximal melodrama. THRDavid Rooney criticizes “the filmmaker’s demanding stylistic flourishes – random B&W, slow motion, jumping cuts, scrambled chronology”, dubbing the film as “a mess, although absorbing”. With many sober dramas in the mix, the driving race could use a little flash, but Daniels seems unlikely to repeat his Precious appointment this year.
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Speaking for VarietyIn this week’s Awards Circuit podcast, King expressed frustration at the buzz about Oscar surrounding his film, telling host Clayton Davis: “I’m better off when I don’t care about it. They are not going to give me shit anyway. “What is more depressing – that he is right, or that we all continue to torment him psychologically anyway?
Current predix
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari; David Fincher, Mank; Regina King, One night in miami; Aaron Sorkin, The Chicago Trial 7; Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Best actor
Anthony Hopkins, The father
Sony Pictures Classics decided to give The father the slowest of rolls, holding on to the drama of dementia until the last possible moment. Ironically, he was one of the first great players to be shown, debuting at Sundance last January. Even then, experts singled out Hopkins as an infallible Oscar nominee, and considering that the Welsh actor has been getting his best ads for decades – Justin Chang praises his “extraordinary psychological cunning and emotional strength” – these seem to be the only predictions from the start 2020 that will really come true. A surprise victory at the Golden Globes, where Hopkins never won, would enshrine him as Chadwick Boseman’s strongest opponent.
Tom Holland, Cherry
Oof. Cherry it should be the big adult play for the Oscars in the Netherlands, but the Russo brothers’ PTSD drama is being ravaged like a shallow pastiche by Scorsese, earning a pitiful 36% score from Rotten Tomatoes. Consider this burst.
Current predix
Riz Ahmed, Metal sound; Chadwick Boseman, Black Bottom by Ma Rainey; Anthony Hopkins, The father; Gary Oldman, Mank; Steven Yeun, Minari
Best actress
Andra Day, United States x Billie Holiday
The R&B singer performs fearlessly in her first leading role, and even the critics who make the film are singing praises to her. “Although its resemblance to the actual holiday is mainly circumstantial,” says EWfrom Leah Greenblatt, “she evokes Billie’s blues not just from her own throat … but from the bottom of her soul as well.” Day is unlikely to win the Globe this weekend and miss the cut with SAG and the long BAFTA list, so she’ll have to hope that these brilliant reviews are enough to keep her on the Academy’s radar when it matters most.
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
The normally shy McDormand gave New York a rare profile Times this week, a story that portrays her as a performer who cares a lot about how much she gives herself to Hollywood. These limits may be the obstacle that prevents her from taking home her second Best Actress trophy in four years: voters like to feel that they are providing the winners with a life-changing service, and the “I want” element of the season. awards has never been McDormand’s vibe.
Current predix
Viola Davis, Black Bottom by Ma Rainey; Andra Day, United States x Billie Holiday; Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of woman; Frances McDormand, Nomadland; Carey Mulligan, Promising young woman
Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Chicago Trial 7
If you subscribe to the idea that Chicago 7 is the favorite in Best Picture, you probably imagine that you will also have the Screenplay. But unless we are in a Spotlight situation, they usually get something else too. This is the strongest argument for Baron Cohen’s supporting actor win; the second strongest is that giving him this award would be a way of recognizing him also for Borat. The reaction in the Globes room (s), where the British comedian is nominated for both projects, will be a sign of which way the wind is blowing.
Trevant Rhodes, United States x Billie Holiday
United States x Billie Holiday has a lot in common with Judas and the Black Messiah – two FBI tales taking down a charismatic figure sending a double Black agent to infiltrate his inner circle. Rhodes has the role of LaKeith Stanfield here, but the Moonlight star curiously minimizes the character’s internal conflict. The most memorable aspect of his performance ends up being his anachronistic abdomen.
Current predix
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Chicago Trial 7; Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods; Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah; Jared Leto, The little things; Leslie Odom Jr., One night in miami
Best supporting actress
Olivia Colman, The father
As Hopkins’ suffering daughter, Colman carries an equal share of The fatherChristy Lemire’s emotional charge calling her “tremendous as always.” As in the case of McDormand, the fact that Colman won so recently probably excludes her from the Oscars, but does not rule out a surprise victory at Globo, where the crown star is hitting 1,000 for his career.
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Of course, the woman that Colman won at the Oscars was also nominated for the Globe. I hope that HFPA prefers to hand over the Supporting Actress award to their longtime favorite – she has been nominated for 15 Globes, winning three times – and thus kick-off the Glenn Close Apology Tour.
Current predix
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy; Olivia Colman, The father; Amanda Seyfried, Mank; Yuh-jung Youn, Minari; Helena Zengel, World News
see it all