COVID-19 vaccines may be open to all Oregon adults until the summer, health officials say

Oregon may open vaccine appointments for all adults until mid-summer, health officials announced on Friday.

The Oregon Health Authority expects a sharp increase in the state’s vaccine supply starting next week, based on communications with suppliers and the federal government. If Oregon receives as many vaccines as announced, the state will have enough first doses for 3.5 million people by the end of May.

Oregon will establish its vaccination eligibility schedule as follows:

• No later than March 29, 2021: adults between 45 and 64 years old with underlying health conditions, migrant agricultural workers, shellfish gatherers and agricultural workers, food processors, low-income people and homes for the elderly, homeless people, people displaced by forest fires and forest firefighters.
• No later than May 1, 2021: adults between 16 and 44 years old with underlying health conditions, people in multigenerational housing, other frontline workers, as defined by the CDC. Frontline workers include grocery and food service workers, US Postal workers, transit workers, local and state government officials and journalists.
• No later than June 1, 2021: all adults between 45 and 64 years old.
• No later than July 1, 2021: all Oregon residents aged 16 and over.

David Baden, chief financial officer of the Oregon Health Authority, said that Oregon should soon receive more than 200,000 doses a week. The state would reach a point where the supply of vaccines would outpace demand soon after.

“We will be looking for people to vaccinate more than people looking for a vaccine,” said Baden.

The health authority’s projections assume that manufacturers Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson have reached their production schedules and that expected doses are delivered on time, which has not always been the case.

It was unclear on Friday how many doses of vaccine projected in Oregon would come from each provider. The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines have efficacy rates of around 95%, but require two doses and deep-frozen storage. Johnson & Johnson’s unique vaccine has a lower efficacy rate, but is also easier to store.

The increase in supply also does not immediately equal gunfire. Administering all of these additional doses of vaccine will require Oregon clinics and pharmacies to expand their capacity. The Oregon Health Authority estimates that the state’s mass vaccination sites can administer about 200% more doses than it currently does.

“The biggest limitation is the offer,” said Baden. “And as the supply increases, we feel very confident that these paths can increase and that we will be ready when more doses arrive to put them in our arms.”

At a rate of 16,000 doses of vaccines administered daily, Oregon could achieve collective immunity by the end of the calendar year. That’s when COVID-19 doesn’t spread so easily and certain social restrictions can be eased.

This rate would theoretically accelerate with more vaccines available and a greater capacity to distribute them.

Oregon Health Authority director of public health, Rachael Banks, said the state’s schedule “really focuses on being able to target resources to those who have had the greatest burden of COVID.”

The health authority last week reported racial disparities in the distribution of vaccines. People who identify themselves as Latino or Hispanic, for example, accounted for only 5% of all vaccinations, despite representing more than a quarter of Oregon’s confirmed number of cases. Whites, on the other hand, received almost 75% of vaccines; they account for less than half of Oregon cases.

Oregon reported more than 154,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the end of Thursday. At least 2,206 Oregon residents died from the disease.