Each week, during the NBA’s 2020-21 season, we’ll take a deeper dive into three of the league’s biggest stories, in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more on fact or fiction in the future.
[Last week: Draymond Green’s double standard, the struggling Celtics and NBA Top Shot]
The Los Angeles Lakers are in trouble
The Lakers have lost four of their last five games and five of their last six, falling from a game behind Western Conference leader Utah Jazz to a game against fourth-placed Phoenix Suns. Three of those losses came from double digits. The stretch coincides with Anthony Davis’ worsening of his right Achilles sprain in the first one.
So, we shouldn’t same be worried about the Lakers, right? As long as Davis returns to health in the playoffs, when he and LeBron James are the most dominant pair in the NBA, LA must still be the favorite to repeat as champion.
But …
Achilles strains are no joke. We know what happened to Kevin Durant’s Achilles strain in the 2019 playoffs, which gives the Lakers every reason not to rush Davis back before he’s totally healthy. The range for Achilles injuries is wide. Orlando Magic striker Aaron Gordon lost two games last season due to achilles pain, returned to four and rested one more before returning to the team regularly. Cleveland Cavaliers striker Kevin Love has yet to play this season with a more severe Achilles injury in the preseason. Davis is closer to love on that spectrum.
Meanwhile, his injury exposes the problems his mastery masked and places a greater burden on his fellow runners.
The Lakers adjusted their central rotation, exchanging Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee for Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell. On paper, it was an update. In practice, this made the Lakers a less vertical threat. With nearly 40% of their strokes reaching the edge, the Lakers came in second place last season for Cleaning the Glass. They are in eighth this season, close to 36%. Likewise, they saw their ranking in the percentage of opponents’ field goals in the ring drop from fifth in the last season (61%) to 17th in this season (63.4%). His margin of error was sifted.
His defense as a whole is still at the top of the league, which is another positive sign for the playoffs, but his attack dropped from 11th last season to 17th this year. That should change when the games are more meaningful, as it was last season, when their attack came in first among the final eight teams, because James and Davis are just a lethal combination, and the Lakers have the rest of the regular season to maximize the Gasol floor spacing around them.
It may be that the Lakers are finally facing the same problems that have affected so many other teams this season. They lost less games due to injuries and health protocols than most of the league, but title owner Dennis Schroder has also lost the last four games after his potential exposure to COVID-19. The Lakers have no one else on the list besides James, who consistently creates for others. This week’s release by beloved teammate Quinn Cook indicates that they are preparing to address one of their deepest concerns.
All of this put excessive pressure on James, who at 36 has played all games and has exceeded 40 minutes in four of his last 10. The second half of the season will be more arduous, especially if Davis’ absence extends beyond the weeks schedule. that the Lakers initially offered. James may be superhuman and is after his fifth MVP award, but is it really worth charging him to improve the team’s position in the West?
With Jazz extending its lead at the top of the conference and facing one of the easiest remaining schedules, it may be better for the Lakers to finish fourth or fifth in the West. From the point of view of the confrontation, runner-up Clippers still poses a greater threat to their repetition. (Who in Jazz defends James and Davis?) Avoiding rivalry in the second round in Los Angeles in the hope that another team will defeat them, as they did last year, is probably a more sensible strategy.
All that said, none of that can make a difference in the end. Unless any limitation by James and Davis, the Lakers will be the favorite to win all the series that make it into the playoffs, concerns about narrower margins and damn depth.
Determination: Fiction
Orlando Magic must perform a settlement
No team has been hit more by injuries this season than Magic, and is not close. Two of his most important building blocks – Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac – are out for the season with torn ACLs. Newcomer Cole Anthony (rib) is off the pitch during the All-Star break and Aaron Gordon (ankle) is in the midst of a four to six week recovery.
All of this leads to the March 25 negotiation deadline.
Orlando has somehow won four of his last seven games, starting with names like Dwayne Bacon, Gary Clark, James Ennis and Michael Carter-Williams around the center of All-Star Nikola Vucevic. They are just two wins from a play-in tournament slot and a chance for a third consecutive playoff appearance. It’s smoke and mirrors. Orlando is being surpassed by 6.4 points per 100 possessions, operating essentially as the third worst team in the entire league.
Which is what they should want to be. This is a stacked draft, featuring three or four potential customers to change the franchise. Magic knows very well what it is to choose beyond the point of dropping a draft. They missed Joel Embiid, Kristaps Porzingis, De’Aaron Fox and Trae Young for individual choices from 2014-18. The only time they had a choice in the top three in the past decade, they got Victor Oladipo. (And I gave up on him very early – a story for another day.)
Orlando is a lost cause. Even when healthy, Magic has been nothing more than fodder in the first round since the 2010 Eastern Conference finals, when overall No. 1 choice (Dwight Howard) made its last stand for them. How many current players from the squad will be present when the team threatens to advance to the third round again?
The list goes no further than Fultz, Isaac, Anthony and perhaps Chuma Okeke, the choice of the first round of 2019 that lost the entire last season with an ACL injury. Of course, they should do a sale. Evan Fournier’s business is expiring. Take what you can, as long as you can. Gordon is in his seventh season at Magic. It’s time to cut the bait. Terrence Ross was hired until 2023. Take what you can. Mo Bamba, the sixth overall pick of 2018, is playing less than 10 minutes per game. Give him a chance or extract some value before it’s painfully obvious that you’ve given up on him.
The biggest fish is the Vucevic. The 30-year-old is enjoying a statistical career year (24.1 points on 48/40/84 split shots, 11.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game) in the void left by an exhausted squad. He has two years left on his contract after this. Nobody wants to change their best player, but what is the ceiling of Magic with him in this role? Where will he be when they develop or hire someone better? It may never be more valuable than it is now. If it takes until the summer to get the best bid for it, so be it, but it’s time to blow up the Magic.
Believe in Wizards again
At the beginning of the season, I had the Wizards secure one of the Eastern Round of 16. Two weeks ago, they were 6-17, with the lowest NBA win and the worst record of their conference. All-Star guard Bradley Beal was “very tired” of carrying them so far. He had also just made a public commitment to straighten the ship in Washington.
Since then, they are 6-1, better than anyone except the growing Brooklyn Nets. This is not a smooth 6-1. His only loss came against the Clippers. They won the Nuggets twice, along with the Lakers (albeit without Davis), Celtics, Blazers and Rockets. Washington overtook three teams in the standings, losing two games from the play-in spot, with just one more loss than fifth-placed Toronto Raptors. A playoff spot is still in play.
Beal’s 32.8 points per game continue to lead the championship in scoring. Russell Westbrook has more assists than anyone in the NBA on the recent stretch of Washington, averaging 19-11-11, despite the heinous pitches (44/8/50 splits, fortunately in just two attempts at 3 points per match). They are trying to defend themselves. It is at least some resemblance to the partnership we envision, because how would two talents of the caliber All-NBA not take a team to the playoffs in the East?
And there is room to grow. The improvement coincided with a change in the initial lineup. An injury at the end of the season for Thomas Bryant and failed experiences with Robin Lopez and Alex Len gave Moe Wagner a chance to start at the center. The threat of his shot opens half a step here or there for Beal and Westbrook to attack the basket. The same goes for second-year unguarded guard Garrison Matthews, who is shooting 43.8% at four 3’s a night in the first eight matches of his career. Neither was a defense disaster, and the Wizards are no longer digging the first holes.
Davis Bertans on fire from a distance just opened up more space for everyone. Rui Hachimura’s mid-range game benefited from the previously reduced spacing by sharing the court with various non-shooting threats. Lopez has switched to a reserve defensive specialist role, especially when they need parades and veteran stewardship in times of crisis. One way or another, Wizards coach Scott Brooks has finally found a rotation that at least makes sense.
None of this is great, but when it comes to the playoffs, the Wizards have a path they can now believe in.
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Ben Rohrbach is a staff writer for Yahoo Sports. Do you have a tip? Send an email to [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach
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