The variant, called B.1.1.7, was suspected of causing further spread in Britain. It has been seen across much of the U.S. – with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimating that the variant represents more than 1,880 cases in 45 states.
The variant may “result in another wave” around April or May, said Trevor Bedford, of the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.
So how can the US avoid suspected spring increases? Some experts said on Tuesday that the best way to anticipate the increase is through vaccines.
Bedford, who has closely followed the emergence of new variants of the coronavirus, predicted that vaccination and mitigation efforts, such as wearing a mask and continuing social detachment, will help prevent the virus from spreading further.
“I still suspect that things will be under control in the summer and there will be very little virus circulating,” he said.
It is possible, however, that a new outbreak could begin in the fall, according to Bedford.
Dr. Josh Schiffer, an infectious disease specialist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, agrees.
“I think with the new infectious variants … it will be difficult to avoid a fourth wave altogether,” said Schiffer, who modeled the patterns of dissemination.
“It hurts … it hurts me when I see things like begging people to do the kind of things you know works – wearing a mask, physically separating – and denying,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
It was “really painful for me” to see hospitals crowded with Covid-19 patients, he said, and “in those same regions, there were people who denied that this was happening, saying, ‘Ah, this is fake news, it’s a mistake.’ I mean, how could you say that when people in your own state, your own city, your own county are dying? “
“Here we are today, looking at 500,000 Americans who have died so far,” said Fauci.
“This is proof of what is really going on. You cannot deny that.”
The race to vaccinate
More than 44.5 million people received at least one dose of their two-dose vaccines, according to data from the CDC.
About 19.8 million were fully vaccinated with both doses, said the CDC. That is about 6% of the US population.
The United States can expect to have a total of 240 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines by the end of March, according to statements prepared by vaccine manufacturers for a House subcommittee hearing on Tuesday.
Pfizer and Moderna – the two companies with Covid-19 vaccines authorized for emergency use in the United States – have pledged to make a combined total of 220 million doses available for shipment by the end of March.
That would be enough to vaccinate 110 million Americans, as both vaccines require two doses.
Johnson & Johnson, which has not yet received an emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine, has committed to making 20 million doses available over the same period. Your vaccine requires only one dose.
Pfizer said it expects to increase the number of doses available for shipment from about 4 million to 5 million doses per week in early February to more than 13 million doses per week by mid-March.
“We are on our way to make 120 million doses available for shipment by the end of March and another 80 million doses by the end of May. And, we anticipate that all 300 million contracted doses will be available for shipment by the end of July, allowing up to 150 million Americans to be vaccinated, “said the company in its prepared comments.
Moderna, the other company with an authorized Covid-19 vaccine, said it is on track to deliver 100 million doses by the end of March and plans to double monthly deliveries by April to more than 40 million doses per month.
“Based on this progress in increasing production, we recently agreed to increase our delivery schedule: we now intend to deliver a second hundred million doses by the end of May and a third of one hundred million doses by the end of July,” he said. Modern in its prepared observations.
1 dose of the vaccine * may * be enough for some, says NIH director
“While much more research is needed – and I’m definitely not suggesting a change from the current recommendations now – the results raise the possibility that one dose may be sufficient for someone who has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and has already generated antibodies against the virus, “wrote Collins.
He referred to a recent pre-press of a small NIH-funded study that looked at 109 people who had already received the first dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.
He found that for 41 people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies before their first injection, the immune response to the first dose was “equal or, in some cases, better” than the response to the second dose in people without infection .
“If other studies support these results, the US Food and Drug Administration can decide whether a dose is sufficient for people who have had a previous COVID-19 infection. This policy is already being considered in France and, if implemented, would help to extend providing vaccines and vaccinating more people sooner, “wrote Collins.
“But any serious consideration of this option will require more data. It will also be up to expert consultants from the FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to decide. ”
For now, Collins said, the most important things for everyone to do is follow the three Ws – wear a mask, wash their hands and observe the distance – “and roll up your sleeves for the vaccine as soon as it is available to us.”
What Americans need to do to ‘get back to normal’
“The best way to get back to normal is to double the volume now, not to take off our masks, not to eat indoors, not to do other things that we know can cause new outbreaks,” said Dr. Craig Spencer, director of global health at emergency medicine at the New York-Presbyterian / Columbia University Medical Center.
“Most people in this country, despite previous infections and despite two months of vaccination, most people still lack protection against Covid and can be infected,” said Spencer. “This is not over and we need to double.”
This means continuing to mask, keep your distance from others, avoid crowded areas and wash your hands regularly.
CNN’s Naomi Thomas, Jacqueline Howard, Christopher Rios, Jen Christensen and Michael Nedelman contributed to this report.