I’m looking forward to Sidney Crosby’s 1,169 game, with the Penguins playing in Washington on Tuesday night.
Wait. What?
I’m sure you’re wondering how I got to that number, seeing how we just witnessed the thousandth Crosby game on Saturday against the New York Islanders.
It turns out that I think the recognition is delayed, since he also played in 168 playoff games. And based on how many NHL players talk about postseason games being “twice as intense” as regular season games, perhaps that number is actually 336.
So, if you want to give Crosby credit for the 1,336 games played, I won’t stop him.
But before turning this into a theoretical numerical exercise of the kind that we haven’t seen since Stanley Tucci’s bridge monologue in “Margin Call”, let’s get straight to the point.
In a year without a pandemic (if we will see one of these again), the championship plays 82 games.
Therefore, Crosby essentially played two extra seasons of NHL hockey in the playoffs only. That’s in addition to completing 15 regular seasons (another 16 games so far this year).
So, let’s find out how much that extra mileage will weigh on Crosby’s longevity.
If you don’t like numbers, skip to the part where you see Crosby’s statistics in bold and italics, and we’ll follow you. If you want to see how we got to the other side of the bridge, stay with me.
Here are some comparisons to other big names in the NHL with whom Crosby is usually associated.
• Steve Yzerman (22 seasons) skated 1,514 games in the regular season, 196 in the playoffs.
• Wayne Gretzky (20 seasons) played 1,487 games in the regular season, 208 in the playoffs.
• Mario Lemieux (17 seasons) recorded 915 games in the regular season, 107 in the playoffs.
In terms of hockey acumen, skill level and achievement, many draw parallels between these players and Crosby. Then there is Jaromir Jagr (24 seasons), who has similarities to No. 87 when it comes to hockey mania and dedication to training.
Jagr totaled 1,733 games in the regular season and 208 in the postseason. And God knows how many in the KHL, in the Czech league, in international competitions and in all the European leagues that he tried during the various seasons.
Crosby only missed the postseason twice. Once in the debut season. Once because of his concussions that left him out in 2011. Gretzky made it to the playoffs in 16 of 20 attempts. Jagr 18 out of 24. Yzerman 20 out of 22. Lemieux 8 out of 17.
All of these are difficult compositions to make because of pandemic breaks and work stoppages, not to mention Lemieux’s injuries and illnesses, Jagr’s trips to Europe and Crosby’s concussion problems.
However, now that we are halfway across the Tucci bridge, the picture is becoming clear enough that, despite some significant extra wear from the postseason weightlifting, it is not impossible for Crosby to play a few years later the termination of his current contract at the end of 2025.
Sid “the Kid” would have been almost 38 at the time. Gretzky retired at age 38. Yzerman was 40. Mario was also 40 when he left the game forever. Jagr ended his last NHL season in 2018 at the age of 45.
Except for Lemieux, the other three players have played between 28 and 40 more playoff games than Crosby so far.
That’s where the projections get a little confused because we don’t know how many games Crosby will play in the regular season and how often or how far the Penguins will go in the playoffs. So, let’s use the averages.
In his 13 playoff seasons, Crosby averaged nearly 13 games per playoff stint. Or approximately a series of six games and one of seven games.
Since Crosby returned from concussions and blocking, the Penguins captain has played an average of 79 games per season. This will start with the 2013-14 campaign and will run until the end of 2019, while throwing away the 2020 mess that was truncated by Crosby’s pandemic and central muscle injury.
Counting Tuesday’s dispute in Washington, the Pens have 40 games left this year. Let’s be optimistic and say that the NHL squeezes them all and Crosby doesn’t lose any.
Take 79 regular season games and multiply for the remaining four years after the completion of 2021, this gives 316 more games in the regular season. Also add the remaining 40 games this year.
Now take the average of 13 postseason games per year over five postseason (including this one, fingers crossed). This equates to another 65 playoff games before Crosby’s contract is concluded.
This gives us a projection of 421 more games in the Penguins’ uniform before Crosby’s deal ends.
With those 421 games added to Crosby’s statistics, the total number of playoffs and games for the regular season would be like this in the summer of 2025, when his contract expires.
Jagr (45) – 1,941 (24 seasons)
Yzerman (40) – 1,710 (22 seasons)
Gretzky (38) – 1,686 (20 seasons)
Crosby (38) – 1,589 (20 seasons)
Lemieux (40) – 1,022 (17 seasons)
These projections are highly optimistic for Crosby. They assume some playoff success for the Pens and that Crosby has no serious injuries. That said, when it comes to how much hockey he could have left after the contract expires, they show that he is in the same stadium as some of those historic peers.
So, what is the purpose of this exercise?
Watch “Margin Call.” That is the question. It is a highly underrated film. Timely now too. Enjoy it. Thank me later.
Besides, though, the point is that Crosby will probably still have some hockey in his tank when this contract ends. And it will be up to the Penguins and Crosby to find out if he wants to play another two or three years here or elsewhere.
“I think, as long as I feel good, I think I would love to play as much as I can,” said Crosby on Friday. “I really have no idea what that age or number is. But I think I’m just focusing on fulfilling my contract and seeing where I am, but I feel really good.
“I want to play as much as I can, so I think we’ll have to see it.”
Another comp? Two of these guys stayed in one city (Lemieux, Yzerman). No two (Gretzky, Jagr). But Gretzky and Jagr left their first teams at the age of 28. Crosby is already 33 years old.
“I love playing here and this is where I would love to play for the rest of my career,” added Crosby.
So maybe the Penguins can hire Tucci to figure out how to work another $ 8.7 million scam against the 2026 limit … and beyond.
Brian Metzer of Penguins Radio Network joins me for Tuesday’s “Breakfast with Benz” podcast. We examined the 1000th milestone of Sidney Crosby’s game, his long-term future, the struggles of Evgeni Malkin and the state of the Eastern Division.
Tim Benz is an editor on the Tribune-Review team. You can contact Tim at [email protected] or via Twitter. All tweets can be posted again. All emails are subject to publication, unless otherwise specified.
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