Dr. Cedric Dark, an assistant professor at Baylor College of Medicine and a board member of Doctors for America, joins Kristin Myers of Yahoo Finance to review the latest developments in coronavirus.
Video transcription
KRISTIN MYERS: We have a very sad milestone in the coronavirus pandemic, as the death toll is approaching 500,000 deaths. And we have good news, however. 600 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine will arrive this summer, July, to be exact. So let’s talk more with Dr. Cedric Dark, an assistant professor at Baylor College of Medicine and a board member of Doctors for America. Dr., it’s always good to have you here with us. We have this very sad reminder here of what is really happening in this ongoing pandemic, with this death toll really high.
I hope you can remind everyone at home where we are in this pandemic right now. It seems that everyone is tired. They are trying to move on. And they kind of think it is behind us.
CEDRIC DARK: I think the word you used, “tired”, is a keyword that I heard a lot from many of my colleagues across the country. We are just feeling tired in the medical field. But as we approach nearly half a million people killed by this disease, we are talking about something that is now practically on the order of at least the third cause of death in the United States, approaching the second cause of death in the United States, which is cancer. All cancers combined account for just over half a million deaths in the United States, which is quite remarkable when you think about it.
So yes, it is a very tiring thing. But there is a little light at the end of the tunnel. We saw the case count beginning to decline. Fortunately, this is due to the vaccines being launched in the country. And then maybe we will soon get over it.
KRISTIN MYERS: Now, as I mentioned in the introduction here, we will have 600 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine in July. So, in your estimation, when will we have collective immunity in the United States?
CEDRIC DARK: So this is a very difficult thing to find out. I think I’ve heard a lot of experts talking about when that could happen. Some say that maybe already at Easter, if you look at the most optimistic scenario, assuming that many people who have been infected are asymptomatic and already have some natural immunity, versus the fact that we could be starting from scratch and just trying to vaccinate a ton of people who have no immunity. I did a little bit of simple math today and tried to figure out when we could expect this to happen.
The good news is that if we have 600 million doses, we will have enough for each American to receive their two-dose vaccine throughout the year. And that would be great. And at the rate we’re doing with about 1.5-1.6 million vaccinations a day, we may need about 180 days to vaccinate everyone. It can take twice as long, considering that it takes two doses. And that can put us anywhere between August this year or until February next year, depending on how fast we can produce, how fast we can vaccinate people.
In the meantime, what every American needs to do is keep going – with social distance, wearing masks. And when the opportunity arises for you, take this injection in your arm. Get your vaccine.
KRISTIN MYERS: OK, so quick math here. 180 days from now or just a few days ago puts us in August, add some time. So, at the very least, I know what you’re saying if everything goes according to plan. So, in the fall, say just September, we’ll have all these people vaccinated. After everyone is vaccinated or about 300 million people are vaccinated in this country, can we live a normal life? Can we say, hey, until Halloween this year, will life be great if we vaccinate everyone?
CEDRIC DARK: Sorry to put a damper. I think we will have to wait and see a little bit, number one, because we still need to find out how long immunity from vaccines lasts, how long immunity against natural infections lasts, to determine whether or not people need booster shots. This will become something like when you need an annual injection, as we do with our flu shots, or it will be something like measles, mumps, rubella, once you get vaccinated against it, it will last for almost a lifetime. So, we still don’t know these bits of information.
We will have to see what the data shows over time. And then people need to be patient and wait for us to reach a point where we achieve collective immunity, with luck at some point near the end of the year or beginning of the next. After doing this in our country, we need to make sure that it happens in other parts of the world as well. Because if we forget about the developing world, then all it will need is someone to fly from one country to another for that kind of thing to happen again, especially if that immunity decreases over time.
KRISTIN MYERS: I am very happy that you mentioned this global stage and that world play. So, you kind of touched on that – very quickly here, like we do while people are being vaccinated or even after you have been vaccinated? You still have to wear a mask and be relatively isolated, correct?
CEDRIC DARK: Yes we do. But I talked to several of my medical colleagues. And one of our greatest hopes in the coming months is that we will be able to see our family, and especially our parents again, because most of us have spent at least a year without doing so. During our spring break approaching in March, I hope to be able to see my parents, who I haven’t seen since maybe 2019, honestly, personally, because they were both vaccinated. My mother was vaccinated with both vaccines. My father should receive the next one, I think maybe in the first week of March or so.
Both my wife and I were vaccinated. We have just had a six year old child who has not yet been vaccinated because it has not yet been approved for children. But I think that, at this point, most of the people I know are willing to see their family again as soon as everyone who can be vaccinated is vaccinated.
KRISTIN MYERS: Okay, Dr. Cedric Dark, assistant professor at Baylor College of Medicine and board member of Doctors for America. Thank you as always for joining us.