“There are two issues going on now – one is the problems with the Byrd rule, the other is the whip problems,” said House Budget President John Yarmuth (D-Ky.), Referring, in the first case, to the procedural obstacle that could cancel the Senate salary increase. “If Joe Manchin is not going to vote in favor because of the minimum wage, I suppose we have to withdraw it or make a deal in a way that he accepts.”
Some Democrats are discussing the possibility of limiting the increase to less than $ 15 an hour, to possibly $ 11 or $ 12, said Yarmuth. Such a move could satisfy Byrd’s rule restrictions that restrict the projected cost of the pandemic relief proposal outside a 10-year budget window, he said.
Budgetary rules that allow the bill to pass the Senate without the threat of obstruction essentially require that all parts of the larger package have a significant effect on federal spending, revenue and debt in a decade. If the package increases deficits beyond that window, the Senate congressman’s approval could be problematic.
Manchin had previously said that a $ 11 increase in the minimum wage, adjusted for inflation, would make more sense for his home state, West Virginia. Sinema’s support for any salary increase would probably be more difficult to earn, as she told POLITICO earlier this month that the increase “is not appropriate” as a complement to the Covid-19 aid project.
Notably, some Republicans supported a pay rise, but with extra strings that would divide Democrats. Senator Mitt Romney (R-Utah) announced last week that he will present a bill with Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) That would increase the minimum wage – although he did not specify a number – “while ensuring business does not can hire illegal immigrants. “
Progressives are not yet ready to drop the $ 15 figure. Senate Budget President Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) And his team have repeatedly stated that the Congressional Budget Office has already produced ample evidence showing that the $ 15 increase meets budget rules within the 10 year window. Sanders’ advisers note that the salary increase will have a far greater effect on the budget than oil drilling in the Arctic and the lifting of Obamacare health insurance penalties – which were previously permitted under the mysterious Senate rules.
But to ensure that the $ 15 salary increase officially ticks all the right boxes, progressives have another idea. They are promoting the possibility of a tax exemption plan for small businesses that could be combined with raising the minimum wage to ease any burdens on companies forced to raise their wages, according to a Democratic Senate aide.
Separately, Democrats are exploring other options on the Senate Finance Committee that could include closing “some loopholes that benefit the rich or the big corporations,” said the Democratic aide.
Democrats “could certainly repeal” some tax provisions, including one added to last year’s pandemic relief measure, “which benefits wealthy homeowners,” added the aide. “There are some other tax provisions that President Biden supported that would raise more than enough money to cover both the 10-year window and annual expenses in relation to the minimum wage.”
Senate Finance President Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) “Is looking for a number of options to stay within our allocation and support small businesses,” said spokesman Ashley Schapitl, noting that he had previously said that “he is doing everything you can “to keep the minimum wage increase to a minimum in the broader package.
A Democratic aide to the House, who described the issue as “a Senate math problem,” said that additional revenue could also come from a month’s cut from the unemployment insurance expiration date that the House package would extend through August. House Democrats have already cut a month from the original extension of Biden’s unemployment insurance, which he proposed to last until September, to offset the cost of the pension assistance they included in Covid-19’s aid project.
Schapitl said he had not heard of any options involving unemployment insurance and raising the minimum wage, but declined to discuss any other details.
Biden in particular signaled to governors that the pay hike is probably not happening as part of his first Covid-19 aid measure. And while Democrats can technically ignore the congressman on the issue, this is unlikely to happen, given that Biden leans heavily against the idea, POLITICO reported earlier this month.
Liberals, however, remain confident that the increase in the minimum wage will survive without any concessions – and are confident of a parliamentary decision in their favor.
“What Senator Sanders is fighting for is a minimum wage of $ 15,” said the Senate Democratic aide. “Period. End of discussion.”
Marianne LeVine contributed to this report.