KAFR KANNA, Israel – Mansour Abbas, a conservative Muslim, is an unlikely political partner for Jewish state leaders.
He is a defender of political Islam. He leads an Arab party descended from the same religious current that gave rise to the Hamas militant movement. And for most of his political life, he never considered supporting the right-wing parties that have led Israel for the past four decades.
However, if Abbas gets what he wants, he can help decide the next Israeli prime minister after next month’s general elections, even if it means the return of a right-wing alliance to power. Tired of the peripheral role traditionally played by Israeli Arab parties, he hopes his small Islamic group, Raam, will maintain the balance of power after the election and prove to be an inevitable partner for any Jewish leader who wants to form a coalition.
“We can work with anyone,” Abbas said in an interview during the campaign in Kafr Kanna, a small Arab town in northern Israel, where the Christian Bible says that Jesus turned water into wine. In the past, “Arab politicians have been spectators of the political process in Israel,” he said. Now, he added, “the Arabs are looking for a real role in Israeli politics.”
Abbas’ move is part of a broader transformation taking place in the Arab political world in Israel.
Accelerated by the election campaign, two trends are converging: On the one hand, Arab politicians and voters increasingly believe that, to improve the lives of Arabs in Israel, they need to seek power within the system rather than exert pressure from outside. Separately, the main Israeli parties are realizing that they need to attract Arab voters to win a hotly contested election – and some are willing to work with Arab parties as potential coalition partners.
Both trends are born out of political pragmatism rather than dogma. And while the moment has the potential to give Arab voters real power, it can backfire: Abbas’ actions will split the Arab vote, as will the opening of Jewish-led parties, and both factors may reduce the number of lawmakers. Arabs in the next Parliament.
But after a strong performance in the last election, in which the Arab parties won a record of 15 seats, becoming the third largest party in the Parliament of 120 seats, and still remained outside the governing coalition, some are in search of others. options.
“After more than a decade with Netanyahu in power, some Arab politicians have proposed a new approach: if you cannot beat him, join him,” said Mohammad Magadli, a well-known Arab television presenter. “This approach is bold, but it is also very dangerous.”
Palestinian citizens of Israel make up more than a fifth of the Israeli population. Since the state’s founding in 1948, they have always sent a handful of Arab lawmakers to Parliament. But these lawmakers have always struggled to make an impact.
Jewish leaders do not see Arab parties as acceptable partners in the coalition – some on the right, defaming them as enemies of the state and seeking to suspend Arab parliamentarians from parliament. In turn, Arab parties generally feel more comfortable in the opposition, giving infrequent support only to center-left parties whose influence has diminished since the beginning of the century.
In a way, this dynamic has worsened in recent years. In 2015, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cited the relatively high threat of Arab attendance – “Arab voters are flowing in large numbers to polling stations,” he warned on election day – to scare his base and get him to vote. In 2018, his government passed new legislation that downgraded the status of the Arab and formally described Israel as the nation-state of only the Jewish people. And in 2020, even its centrist rival, Benny Gantz, refused to form a government based on the support of Arab parties.
But a year later, as Israel moves towards its fourth election in two years of political stalemate, that paradigm is changing rapidly.
Netanyahu is now vigorously courting the Arab electorate. Following his example, Yair Lapid, a centrist candidate for prime minister, said he could form a coalition with Arab lawmakers, despite depreciating them early in his career. Two left-wing parties have pledged to work with an alliance of Arab lawmakers to promote Arab interests.
The research suggests that the majority of Palestinian citizens in Israel want their legislators to play a role in government. Abbas says Arab politicians must gain influence by supporting parties that promise to improve Arab society. Another prominent Arab politician, Ali Salam, mayor of Nazareth, Israel’s largest Arab city, expressed support for Netanyahu, arguing that, despite his previous comments, the prime minister is sincere about how to improve the lives of Arabs.
“In the Israeli political system, it used to be a sin to collaborate with Arab parties or even Arab voters,” said Nahum Barnea, one of Israel’s best-known columnists. But Netanyahu suddenly made Arabs “a legitimate partner for any political maneuver”.
“In a way, he opened a box that, I hope, cannot be closed from now on,” added Barnea.
Netanyahu’s transition was one of the most notable. He promised more resources for Arab communities and to fight endemic crime in Arab neighborhoods. And he started calling himself “Yair’s father” – a reference to his son, Yair, who also affectionately riffs on the Arab practice of referring to someone as the father of his firstborn son.
At a turning point in January, he announced a “new era” for Israeli Arabs at a rally in Nazareth and made a qualified apology for his earlier comments on Arab voters. “I apologized then and today too,” he said, before adding that critics “distorted my words.”
Critics say Netanyahu is courting Arab voters because he needs them to win, not because he sincerely cares about them. This month, he also agreed to include in his next coalition a far-right party whose leader wants to disqualify many Arabs from running for parliament. And he ruled out forming a government with Abbas’ support.
Next month’s election is expected to be as close as each of the previous three.
Netanyahu is currently on trial on charges of corruption and, if he remains in power, he could follow laws that exempt him from prosecution.
“What matters to Netanyahu is Netanyahu,” said Afif Abu Much, an important commentator on Arab policy in Israel.
Likewise, Arab politicians and voters have not been free of all their discomfort with Zionism and Israeli policies in the occupied territories. But there is a growing perception that the problems facing the Arab community – gang violence, poverty and discrimination in access to housing and land – will not be resolved without Arab politicians defining policies at the highest level.
“I want different results, so I need to change the approach,” said Abbas. “The crises in Arab society have reached a boiling point.”
Still, Abbas’ plan can easily fail and undermine the little influence that Arab citizens have today.
To compete on his new platform, Abbas had to withdraw from an alliance of Arab parties, the Joint List, whose remaining members are not convinced of working with the Israeli right. And that division could dilute the collective power of Arab lawmakers.
Support for Abbas’ party currently fluctuates close to the 3.25% limit that parties need to secure entry into Parliament. Even if your party succeeds in overcoming the limits, there is no guarantee that any candidate for prime minister will need or seek party support to secure the 61 seats needed to form a coalition.
Netanyahu, despite his earlier incitement against Arabs, can also alienate Arab voters from Arab parties, reducing their influence. Even more people can stay at home, disillusioned by the divisions within the Arab parties and their inability to make significant changes, or to boycott a state whose authority they reject.
“I don’t believe in any of them, nor do I trust any of them,” said Siham Ighbariya, a 40-year-old housewife. She gained prominence through her quest to obtain justice for her husband and son, who were murdered at home in 2012 by an unknown killer.
“I dealt with all of them,” said Ighbariya of the Arab political class. “And nothing happened.”
For some Palestinians, participation in the Israeli government is a betrayal of the Palestinian cause – a criticism that Abbas understands. “I have a deep personal conflict within me,” he acknowledged. “We have been involved in a conflict for 100 years, a bloody and difficult conflict.”
But it was time to move on, he added. “You need to be able to look to the future and build a better future for everyone, both Arabs and Jews.”