WASHINGTON – Donald Trump’s departure has brought a more normal pace back to politics in Washington, but outside the Beltway, deeper forces are reshaping the party landscape.
Data from the NBC News poll shows that voters who make up the two main parties are changing and a big shift is coming in employment: the types of jobs that Democrats and Republicans work for. There are signs that, in all racial and ethnic demographic groups, Republicans are becoming the party of American workers and the change is happening rapidly.
If the movement continues, it can have a huge impact on the future of the GOP. Consider the scale of the overall change.
In the past decade, the percentage of blue-collar voters who call themselves Republicans has grown by 12 percentage points. At the same time, the number of this group identified as Democrats decreased by 8 points. Among white-collar voters, the numbers remained stable, with Democrats seeing a small increase and Republicans seeing a small decrease.
But this blue collar change is noteworthy because of the political implications it could have for both parties. Blue-collar voters tend to want different things from the government than those with white-collar jobs on issues like trade and even Wall Street regulation.
We have already seen some signs of what this change could mean shortly after the election, when Republican voters aligned with former President Trump called for greater relief payments from the government’s COVID. Larger cash payments are not a policy choice that would normally be associated with Republicans.
In that way, the blue collar shift for the Republican Party has the potential to reshape the party, especially when you look at how comprehensive it is.
You can see this among white non-Hispanic voters, who make up the overwhelming majority of Republicans.
With these voters, the numbers reflect this shift on a large scale – a gain of 12 points for the Republican Party.
But the collision with workers also spreads to other Republican constituencies, including groups that are generally more difficult to reach. Hispanic blue-collar voters have moved to the Republican Party in the past 10 years.
This 13-point gain is impressive, even greater than the growth that Republicans have had with white workers, and it can definitely be seen as a bright spot for the party, which is trying to find a way to make inroads with the rapidly growing ethnicity. group. For years, the assumption was that Democrats had an internal path to winning the Hispanic vote, but perhaps that is less true than previously thought, especially among Hispanic workers.
And you can even see the blue collar growth of Republicans among African Americans, a group of voters that has long been deeply problematic for the Republican Party.
To be clear, these numbers are still very small. But considering the struggles Republicans are facing to attract voters back, even a small positive movement is something for the party to welcome. Ultimately, elections are all about margins, and losing a group by 7 points less can pay dividends in states where voting is close.
Together, these data suggest that the Republican Party has not only made substantial inroads with worker voters, but the party is increasingly dependent on worker voters as a key, if not the main, component of its coalition.
Political strategists often debate the best way to win voters: are cultural or economic appeals better? These data suggest that economic appeals may offer the Republican Party the best way to broaden its appeal. This path, however, would probably mean a reformulation of policy approaches to make them more resonated among worker voters.
And another point as the Republicans’ intra-party war deepens: looking at these numbers, most of the Republican Party’s blue collar growth occurred during Donald Trump’s presidency. If this is the path Republicans have chosen to move forward, it could mean tying the party even further to the former president.