American farmers will respond to high commodity prices by harvesting their largest soybean crop and a corn crop that could break the record set in 2016, the USDA projected on Friday.
Delivered to a hungry world recovering from the pandemic, the 2021 corn and soybean crops would reach some of the highest producer prices in years.
At its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, the USDA projected a corn crop of 15.15 billion bushels, equaling the record of 15.148 billion bushels in 2016, and a soybean crop of 4.525 billion bushels, surpassing the record of 4.428 billion bushels in 2018. In a combined 182 million acres, this year’s corn and soy plantations would be the highest total ever for the two most widely planted crops in the country.
“The current future prices of new crop soybeans in relation to corn, supported by strong Chinese demand and the narrower stock / use ratio since 2013/14, should boost soybean planting to 90.0 million acres, which would be 6.9 million acres up a year ago, ”said the USDA. “Higher corn prices are also expected to encourage planting, although with a smaller increase in cultivated area compared to soy, an increase from 1 million acres to 92 million.”
With the demand in full swing for the harvests in the country and abroad, the record harvests would be completely consumed when the 2022 harvests were ready for harvest. Corn exports were projected at a record 2.65 billion bushels and soybeans at a record 2.2 billion bushels. “Despite the increase in global demand, the US market share is likely to decline with limited export supply.” Transporting 145 million bushels of soy would be less than a two-week supply. The 1.552 billion bushel corn transfer would be a five and a half week supply.
Average season prices were projected at $ 4.20 a bushel for corn and $ 11.25 a bushel for soybeans. The price of corn would be 10 cents lower than in this marketing year and the second highest in eight years. The price of soybeans would be the highest since 2012/13.
The USDA said 5.2 billion bushels of corn would be used to produce ethanol, up 5% from this marketing year, based on expectations of higher gasoline consumption as the economy recovers from the pandemic. . “We will continue to follow this closely,” said USDA economist Justin Choe.
USDA projections for huge corn and soybean crops depended in part on the highest corn yield ever, 179.5 bushels per acre, and the second highest recorded soybean yield, 50.8 bushels per acre.
Wheat production was projected at 1.827 billion bushels, almost the same as in 2020, with plantations of 45 million acres, 651,000 acres more than last year. Wheat sowing is under pressure from the highest expected returns from corn and soybeans in the northern plains.
Cotton production was projected at 17.5 million bales, compared to 14.95 million bales last year, with higher productivity and a stable planted area. The rice crop of 202.9 million cents would be 11% less than in 2020 due to proportionally smaller sowing.
Sorghum plantations were projected to increase to 7.2 million acres, an increase of 1.3 million acres over last year, yielding a crop of 441 million bushels, compared to 373 million bushels in 2020. The United States is the world’s largest producer of sorghum and China is the largest importer. “Sorghum prices have skyrocketed … and most of them are going directly to China,” said Choe. “Almost all of this increase (in production) will go directly to exports.” The season’s average price for sorghum was projected at $ 4.70 per bushel, down 10 cents from the 2020 crop.