California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks during a press conference at a state and federal joint COVID-19 vaccination site set up on the campus of California State University in Los Angeles in Los Angeles, Tuesday, February 16, 2021. | AP Photo / Jae C. Hong
OAKLAND, California – The campaign to recall California Governor Gavin Newsom had nearly 670,000 signatures validated with a month remaining to reach about 1.5 million, according to an official update on Friday, but the total number of valid signatures sent is probably longer.
It looks like it will be a tight end to qualifying just for the second call for governor in California history. Longtime voting experts say the campaign continues to have an impressive validation rate for submitted signatures, but that it can still come to fruition based on Friday’s data release.
An update to the Secretary of State’s office shows 668,202 signatures valid so far, equal to a relatively high validity rate of 84% of the 798,310 signatures reviewed by local electoral offices until the beginning of February.
The authorities had not yet processed an additional 300,000 ballots, which in the reported validity fee would put organizers at around 900,000 total signatures – about 60 percent of the total required.
Anne Dunsmore, who runs one of the two groups leading the recall, said the report fell short of the campaign’s actual subscription collection fee. Dunsmore said that proponents sent about 1.2 million signatures and collected about 1.7 million in total.
“We are doing great,” said Dunsmore. “We are well on the right track.”
But campaign consultant Brandon Castillo, who is not affiliated with the recall, predicted that the result could be tight. He said it will depend on how many subscriptions the campaign has accumulated in addition to the 1.09 million that registrars officially received, assuming that their shipping fee for the following month roughly corresponds to the gross campaign total from early January to early February.
“I think it is very close. I think it is seriously possible for them to qualify. But only if they have 400,000 to 500,000 additional signatures in hand,” said Castillo.
The last official update, in January, showed that proponents sent around 410,000 valid signatures and probably collected around 610,000 valid signatures in total.
A growing consensus that the recall may well happen before voters have attracted national attention and money, with the Republican National Committee channeling $ 250,000 to bring the signature collection effort to the finish line. Republican candidates are lining up and Democrats are uniting behind Newsom.
A hesitant mass vaccination effort and the continued closure of schools fueled criticism of Newsom’s leadership.
The next official state report is scheduled for March 18 – the day after the deadline for proposers to submit signatures. County election officials are then expected to present the results to the secretary of state’s office, who will announce whether the revocation has been voted on.
If that happens, an election will likely take place in the fall. Voters would decide two issues: whether to keep Newsom in office and who should replace him if the recall was approved.