Yes, it’s a clickbait title.
No, I don’t care that you’re upset.
The simple fact is that you are reading this, which means it worked, so sit back and enjoy.
With that established, it is possible to discuss how with the 2020 NFL season in the rear view mirror, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hoisted the Lombardi trophy as the league champion. In taking the Bucs to victory, the legend of Tom Brady added another chapter, and the addition of a seventh Super Bowl victory further separates Brady from the defenders who are anywhere near him.
Brady’s greatness is relevant with the 2021 league year scheduled to start in less than four weeks on March 17, as one of the main problems facing the league teams is the impact of the COVID pandemic on 2020 revenue, and the expected lowering of the salary cap for 2021. For the Seattle Seahawks, this will mean the need to figure out how to create a cap in the coming weeks, since, although OverTheCap.com currently lists the Hawks with projections of $ 4.95 million in space , this is not a totally accurate number.
First, that number includes only 47 players under contract, so once the list is built for 51, it will represent an addition of at least $ 2.64 million in maximum costs, even if only the minimum wage beginners are added to the list (at $ 660k each) add an additional $ 3 million or more in maximum fees associated with proposals that are likely to be extended to free agents and exclusive free agents, and suddenly Seattle seems to be in the red, even with based on the forecast of a limit set at $ 180M or $ 181M
Now, it is no emergency for a team to exceed the limit, as teams can create boundary space in many ways, and it all comes down to exactly how a team decides to create the space it needs. When it comes to Seahawks, many have called on quarterback Russell Wilson to get a discount to allow the team to put better talent around them. Many of the calls cited the “discount” that Brady has provided the New England Patriots over the years, in particular offering a Business Insider article written in March 2020, which postulates that Brady “sacrificed at least $ 60 million in his career”.
Now, I could go on and on about the flaws in the analysis conducted by Business Insider and point out loopholes in his assessment of the discount Brady got, but it’s a long off-season and I’ll delve into the details of the supposed discount sometime in the coming weeks. For now, I will try to avoid discarding poor analytical work. Here is the methodology for this Business Insider article (the boldface added is mine):
We imagined a scenario in which Brady signed new deals in 2005, 2009, 2013 and 2017 that were equivalent to the rate in effect for the main defender at the time. In each of these four years, we have given Brady a new contract equal to that of the biggest contracts for veteran defenders that had been signed before that season or the previous season. So do we imagined that Brady only played four seasons in each contract and then signed a new contract.
So, basically, they created a scenario in which Brady closed contracts at opportune times. In reality, Brady signed extensions in 2005, 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019 before becoming a free agent in 2020. Therefore, starting in 2010, Brady renegotiated every three years, instead of the four years that the Business article Insider “imagines” and what their estimates are based on.
For comparative purposes, let’s take the same methodology and “imagine” a scenario where Wilson signed a contract extension every three years starting in 2015 and gave Wilson a contract equal to the biggest contracts for veteran quarterbacks that were signed before that season or the previous season. See what this looks like based on Wilson’s 2015 contract, which left him $ 100k per season below the highest-paid player in the NFL and his 2019 contract, which made him the highest-paid player in the league.
So, for reference, the contract that will be used for comparative purposes is the contract under which Aaron Rodgers played from 2015 to 2017, the Jimmy Garoppolo contract from 2018 to 2020 and Patrick Mahomes from 2021 to 2023. Here’s how, using the same methodology as above, the Wilson discount calculates.
Russell Wilson contract discount per season
| Year | Wilson | Comp | Comp Player | Wilson Discount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Wilson | Comp | Comp Player | Wilson Discount |
| 2015 | $ 7,054,000 | $ 22,000,000 | Rodgers | $ 14,946,000 |
| 2016 | $ 18,542,000 | $ 22,000,000 | Rodgers | $ 3,458,000 |
| 2017 | $ 14,660,000 | $ 22,000,000 | Rodgers | $ 7,340,000 |
| 2018 | $ 23,786,000 | $ 27,500,000 | Garoppolo | $ 3,714,000 |
| 2019 | $ 26,286,000 | $ 27,500,000 | Garoppolo | $ 1,214,000 |
| 2020 | $ 31,000,000 | $ 27,500,000 | Garoppolo | – $ 3,500,000 |
| 2021 | $ 32,000,000 | $ 45,000,000 | Mahomes | $ 13,000,000 |
| 2022 | $ 37,000,000 | $ 45,000,000 | Mahomes | $ 8,000,000 |
| 2023 | $ 39,000,000 | $ 45,000,000 | Mahomes | $ 6,000,000 |
| Total | $ 229,328,000 | $ 283,500,000 | N / D | $ 54,172,000 |
So, using this methodology, Wilson is set to play 2021 at a discount of $ 13 million over the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback, and when his current contract expires, he will have given the Seahawks a discount of over $ 54 million. Even excluding the 2015 season, when he played in the final year of his rookie contract, Wilson would be considered to have given a discount of almost $ 40 million over the eight years from 2016 to 2023, an average of $ 5 million per season .
Is this “discount” imaginary and totally invented from the scenario I “imagined”? Absolutely one hundred percent, and I did it intentionally to illustrate how the supposed $ 60 million Brady discount methodology is really missing. That said, the main thing to take away is that Russell Wilson is not going to give the Seahawks a discount, nor should he, because he is already set to play the 2021 season at a discount of $ 13 million.