Unemployment benefits will begin to expire for millions of Americans in less than a month, directly pressing Congress – and Democratic leaders – to pass a $ 1.9 trillion Covid relief bill.
The next four weeks will test Democratic unity and will demand that the party’s progressives and moderates put aside clear philosophical differences about the scope of what is needed for recovery now. It will also cement a reality for President Biden: his first big push in Congress will not be bipartisan. Instead, a process is underway that will allow Democrats to pass that bill in the Senate with just 51 votes.
Conclusion: Congress closed this week, but the quiet work of gathering the Democrats’ opening offer in Covid continues this week with the House on its way to approve its part of the $ 1.9 trillion proposal next week.
In the coming days, the House Budget Committee will draft the final draft based on the section by sections that the committees approved last week. This will ensure that Democrats are able to get the caucus to participate and approve the bill as early as next week.
The immediate obstacles: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a margin of five votes on this project. This is not the spring of 2020, when the economy was in craters and the uncertainty of the virus was so paralyzing for the country that lawmakers met in a matter of weeks to approve the biggest stimulus project in history with unity.
The scrutiny of this package – even by some Democrats – is more intense. This does not mean that some Republicans will not cross the aisle and vote in favor, giving Pelosi perhaps more space to move the legislation in progress, but look at members’ comments in the coming days while they are at home on the playground to get a clue of how this will represent for the mayor.
The Senate problem: In recent weeks, House Democrats have not worked in a vacuum by turning Biden’s proposal into legislative text. Democratic aides to the Finance Committee’s Senate have consulted the Chamber’s Manners and Resources panel. The Senate HELP Committee has worked closely with the Chamber’s Education and Work panel. Aides have been in close contact and Democratic senators have made it clear – both through private nudges and public comment – what they need in the House bill to make it viable on their side.
Still, House and Senate Democrats are not in complete unity now. The expectation is that changes in the House bill will take place in the Senate, but not in a formal committee bench as last week in the House. Instead, the current plan for Democrats is to take their bill – with some potential changes that have been resolved in private – directly to the Senate floor. This can happen in the week of March 2nd. However, Democrats in the Senate will have two weeks to approve their bill before unemployment insurance ends. And, if they pass a bill different from that of the House, the House will have to pass it again before March 14.
Read more about the House Democrats’ aid plan on here.