The stakes are high, as US and coalition troops in Iraq continue to defend themselves against frequent attacks by Iranian-backed Shiite militia groups. On Monday, militias launched a round of 14 107mm rockets at a Iraqi air base in Irbil, where US forces are based. Three rockets hit the base, killing a non-American contractor and injuring nine more people, including five Americans.
Tension is emerging as the Pentagon, under Biden’s direction, conducts an analysis of whether changes need to be made to U.S. military positions around the world in order to contain the growing threat from China. The review, although still in its early stages, is likely to start a new struggle for limited resources among regional military leaders.
“This was all done to signal that there is a new sheriff here in the city in Washington, and we are going to review everything [Trump] it did – no more carte blanc, ”said Bilal Saab, a former Trump defense officer now at the Middle East Institute. “At the same time … this is a relationship that you obviously don’t want to lose. It is very valuable to mess up. “
Since friction with Iran broke out in the spring of 2019, when Iran broke down two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, military leaders from the US Pentagon and Central Command have asked the White House to strengthen the US military presence in the Middle East at times in conflict with their civilian colleagues who wanted to transfer resources to Asia, according to conversations with five former and current officers, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss delicate operational planning. Military officials sounded the alarm over Saudi Arabia’s vulnerability, particularly after a September 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco’s oil processing facilities in Abqaiq, which temporarily paralyzed half of Saudi oil production.
For the most part, the push was successful. In the past two years, the Pentagon has sent thousands of additional troops, as well as fighter and bomber squadrons, warships and anti-missile defense batteries, to the region. Meanwhile, the head of the US Central Command, General Frank McKenzie, pressed to maintain at least one carrier strike group in the Middle East at all times, former and current officials said, and at the beginning of last year operated two rare aircraft carriers in the region for a long time.
Although troop levels in the region have fluctuated since May 2019, the U.S. military presence has declined in recent months, according to Central Command spokesman Captain Bill Urban. Between June 1, 2019 and December 1, 2020, Urban estimated that there were about 60,000 to 80,000 soldiers in the region most of the time. But today, U.S. strength levels are below 60,000 troops – not significantly higher than they were on May 1, 2019.
Some in the Biden government question whether the military increase in the Gulf prevented Iran. Tehran continues to move towards the ability to produce nuclear weapons, and Iranian officials publicly refuse to negotiate a new nuclear pact without easing sanctions. Meanwhile, the Houthis and other Iranian proxy forces continue to attack Saudi facilities and other US interests in the region.
The new government has signaled that it wants to put pressure on Riyadh. A few weeks after taking office, Biden ordered a temporary freeze on the sale of precision-guided weapons to Saudi Arabia pending a review and an end to all US military support for Saudi-led coalition offensive operations in the civil war. of Yemen. Management is also evaluating whether to maintain current strength levels in the region as part of the global review.
But experts say these measures will change little in Yemen, where Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been fighting Saudi forces for years. Biden officials described the revision of arms sales as routine, and the Trump administration, years ago, ended most U.S. military support for the coalition, including aerial refueling and intelligence sharing for offensive operations.
“To some extent, the Biden government was deceived in this,” said Dave Des Roches, associate professor at the Center for Strategic Studies in the Middle East and South Asia at the National Defense University, noting that the Saudis emphasized the United States’ commitment to their territorial integrity.
“If you have a spectacular attack or missile that reaches Riyadh, the Biden administrator is in trouble. You have to answer. You have to try to take out the launch points. “
A National Security Council spokesman declined to comment.
Meanwhile, the State Department reversed a last-minute decision by the Trump administration to designate the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, after humanitarian leaders warned that the terrorist designation hampered relief work in Yemen.
Still, the move should not be taken as a lack of US commitment to Saudi Arabia, but as an effort to ease the humanitarian catastrophe, said a defense official. In fact, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has spoken several times to his Saudi counterparts and last week strongly condemned Houthi’s attacks on a Saudi airport.
“The delicate balance here is that, although there is a bipartisan consensus that US military support for the coalition in Yemen has not changed anything and has only exacerbated human suffering in Yemen … there is not a bipartisan majority calling for the cut of support that would help the The Saudis defend themselves, ”said the official.
Biden also signaled that the United States would take a leading role in negotiating a diplomatic solution to the war in Yemen, appointing a veteran American diplomat, Tim Lenderking, as America’s special envoy for the conflict.
During a press conference with reporters on Tuesday, Lenderking said that a “negotiated settlement” is the only way to end the conflict, being careful to condemn the recent Houthi attacks.
“These attacks on civilian infrastructure are not the actions of a group that claims to want peace and that they must stop,” he said. “Unless and until the Houthis change their reprehensible behavior, their leaders will remain under significant pressure from the US and internationally.”
Biden and his team “made it clear that we will not allow Saudi Arabia to be a target for shooting,” he said.
And in a sign that Riyadh may be trying to get favors from the new government, authorities have released prominent women’s rights activist Loujain al-Hathloul, best known for defying the ban on women driving from prison after nearly three years.
Even so, as the new government settles in, there is little sign that the military intends to change gears. A few days after Biden’s inauguration, McKenzie traveled to Saudi Arabia, where he announced a new agreement with Riyadh to use various airports and seaports in the country’s western regions.
The review of deployments around the world is designed in part to assess Iran’s continuing threat and how to best reassure partners that the US is committed to maintaining stability in the region.
But in the meantime, the message from Central Command was consistent. In public statements last week, McKenzie noted the continued attacks on Saudi Arabia by Iranian representatives and pledged to continue US military support to defend against future incursions.
“Nothing that has been said or done means that we will not continue to involve Saudi Arabia and our other coalition partners,” said McKenzie last week. “Our focus there will be on doing things to help them defend themselves more effectively and efficiently and there is a common threat there and that threat is Iran.”
And while Biden has announced the end of US military support for Saudi-led coalition offensive operations in Yemen this month, the sharing of information related to the defense of the Kingdom will continue, the Pentagon said.
McKenzie “remains as it is,” said a former defense officer in reference to the push to expand the US military presence in Saudi Arabia. “I hope that the people at Biden think it’s crazy. This will only increase tensions to put all of these people there. But the Saudis expect that. “
Nahal Toosi contributed to this report.