Is it the quarterback or is it his situation? It is a question that we have plagued for over a year.
It was the main question posed throughout the 2019 season, as Tom Brady and the Patriots attack struggled with few weapons established around the future Hall of Fame. Then we saw how he handled a very different team in Tampa Bay the following year.
The question arose again in 2020, looking at Josh Allen and his rise as the talent around him grew. It came during this off-season when we asked ourselves what Sam Darnold might have been able to do if he were in a better situation, or if Dolphins need to give Your Tagovailoa time with better pass catchers before moving on.
It’s always there. It will always be there. But lately there is a new poster boy for the importance of that marriage between a quarterback and his situation: Carson Wentz.
In 2017, Wentz was blacked out. He had Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz at the height of his powers. He had a tremendous offensive line. And if it weren’t for an injury at the end of the season, he could have participated in the MVP conversation that year.
In 2020, Wentz was a shell of himself. The situation was a disaster and he did the same.
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So, what quarterback is he? And can it be fixed? Is it in his head or does he just need a little help to get back to the player he was three years ago? He’s only 28. He must still be at his peak. Still, according to Ron Jaworski, the best offer the Eagles received for Wentz’s services was two Colts’ choices in the second round.
Let’s dive into some of the numbers at stake with Wentz and find out whether or not it makes any sense to the Patriots …
HE CAN PLAY?
Well … what version of Wentz are we talking about here?
He was arguably the worst starting defender in football in 2020. According to Pro Football Focus, his 24 worthy moves led the NFL, although he stayed on the bench for most of the last month of the season. Among defenders with at least 300 hits, he was the 31st of 32 players in yards per attempt (6.0), quarterback rating (72.8), clean pocket rating, adjusted completion percentage (70.1) , expected points added per game (-0.054) and higher than expected completion percentage (-5.6).
Still, in 2017, surrounded by a large support cast, he was arguably one of the top five passers until he suffered an injury at the end of the season. He had a 33 to 7 touchdown-to-intercept ratio and was eighth in the NFL in rank (101.9). There was a good football player somewhere there. But the question is whether that player will ever return and whether a complete list will be needed to take him anywhere near that point again.
In New England, depending on how the off season is going, there is a chance that Wentz will be behind a very good offensive line. And they could update their pass collectors through free agency and draft. But if Wentz needs to be placed in an ideal offensive situation, then Foxboro doesn’t seem like a great place for him at the moment.
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WOULD PATS THINK THIS Feasible?
The best offer reported to Wentz, two choices for the second round, is not exactly a franchise-destroying payment for a full-time quarterback who should be at his peak. But Wentz played so badly last season that it looks like there’s a lot to give up.
When considering where the Patriots sit at this point in their lineup – in a very different location than the Colts, for example – giving up this type of drawing capital would be paralyzing if Wentz remained a below average passer moving forward.
FOLLOW THE MONEY
This is what makes this inevitable trade fascinating. The Eagles will be subject to a $ 33.8 million dead limit charge when the limit is defined as a crater for all teams – and they still want to get rid of it. It was very bad in 2020.
Wentz’s game and his reported attitude as his performance sank made this situation untenable, and now the Eagles are on the clock. They owe Wentz another $ 10 million by March 19 in the form of a bonus on the list. Whichever team acquires Wentz, it will be investing just over $ 25 million in its limit for 2021 and $ 22 million in 2022. Not cheap. But it is still a long way from the capitalization management disaster facing Philly.
PROBABILITY TO HAPPEN
Trade compensation. The contract. The reported coachability problems. For a team rebuilt like the Patriots, for a team that prides itself on an environment built on hard training, Wentz doesn’t seem to be the best option. It is difficult to describe anything that the Patriots do as “shocking”. But that would come close.