The NFL and NFLPA are likely to find a way to raise the salary cap a little. Whether or not it reaches the $ 190 million stratosphere – $ 195 million – which the most optimistic agents are waiting for – remains to be seen, but I would be surprised if it didn’t sit at least around $ 185 million. millions.
The idea of reaching the potential $ 175 million floor seems remote, at best, based on what I am hearing, but I would still warn against those who project the normal feeding frenzy at the start of the championship to which we have become accustomed. I continue to see ample signs that owners, hit by the pandemic and the inability to meet their revenue targets in 2020 and perhaps also in 2021, will be ready to hold back more spending and target the NFL middle class, and this could result in an off-season that more closely resembles the drop-by-drop nature of baseball off-season, rather than the normal pace of a typical hot stove season.
Even with long-term television contracts on the horizon, if an owner was inclined to want to bargain in 2021 and dominate the market, there are many reasons (excuses?) For doing so. The uncertainty about the degree of fans in the stands in 2021, after almost none in 2020, and with a stagnant limit at best and with the final details of the limit probably not ending until shortly before the start of the free agency next year , everything creates a potential climate for owners to sit and wait, instead of running with both hands, launching contracts to fill as many roster spots as possible in a month.
A year ago, only half of the NFL teams spent up to the salary cap; is there really a reason, under these circumstances, to project even that number repeating, let alone an outbreak? Don’t we think that there would be financial motivation to try to buy time in the hope that a whole class of players who would normally win from $ 3 million to $ 5 million could be won by about $ 1 million? There will be a flurry of trapped players waiting for the best one-year verification deal they can get, I say, and some may start grabbing the modest bird in hand sooner or later.
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The group of teams that look like obvious spenders is not that long. The Eagles and Saints have fueled this fire in recent years, but both are dealing with significant limit issues and will not be able to push the market anywhere near what we have seen in the past. The Patriots have as much cap space and scaling flexibility as anyone, but do we really think Bill Belichick is going to go crazy throwing money from the best in the category and reconfiguring the market in various positions? The Falcons and Rams – also never averse to creating new spending rules in certain positions – more or less made their beds for 2021. Cowboys can be hurt by a quarterback on a second franchise brand counting close to $ 40 million against their limit most, if not all, of your off-season.
This is less than ideal from a spending perspective.
They are likely to be the usual suspects – historically bad teams under new management, with more limit space than they know what to do, who have to overpay for the best free agents to wink at them this time of year. This will move the engine – as it always does – but I’m not sure if there will be the intensity of competition that we normally encounter for these players. I’m thinking that half a dozen teams will be willing to dive into the deep end of the free agency, led by the Jaguars and Jets, and perhaps the Texans. The Raiders’ failure to find notable defensive players through various drafts could cause them to chase the best line players, linebackers and defenders they could find, but who else among .500 teams or better will push them? The Colts will be aggressive – but reasonably under the judicious general manager Chris Ballard – and the Bengals will certainly have no shortage of needs to fill, but we think Mike Brown will want to establish new spending brands along the offensive and defensive line, where he need help? I have some reservations. Maybe the Titans?
Teams that seem to be on the verge of perhaps a breakthrough – like Bills and Ravens – are prioritizing maintaining and expanding their own best players, a process that started last year for them and still needs to include quarterbacks of the MVP caliber in their 20s and a few years. Hard to see them doing a lot of free agent spills. Packers have to navigate trying to keep their squad together with Aaron Rodgers by not getting younger, which can limit their propensity to make big additions.
Once you take into account the abundance of players who are likely to receive a franchise label, many of them for the second year in a row, and this class of free agent loses much of its luster. No matter what the final limit is, I have my reservations about what the league can offer. With the money from the broadcast and the money from the game still to come, and yet to really pour in this off-season, I foresee many owners operating with a more limited spending capacity in 2021. I hope I am wrong.
A deal with Wentz would never be easy in a limited market
The Eagles, Colts and Bears’ chicken game over Carson Wentz was never particularly close to being resolved, despite what so many reported breathlessly around the Super Bowl, and its $ 10 million list bonus due next month remains an elephant in the room. The Eagles paid Sam Bradford a large sum of money not so long ago and negotiated it anyway, for the Vikings, for a choice in the first round. Some believe that the property may be willing to – or at the end of the day may simply have to – swallow this type of scam again to facilitate obtaining maximum compensation for what amounts to Philly’s backup QB at this point. A hard pill that won’t go down easy, but I don’t see the kind of offers that are increasing much, unless the financial burden is borne by the Eagles. There are a ton of options out there, including the draft, and a very limited market for Wentz. It was never close, it will always be complicated, and although I expect Wentz to leave in the next few weeks, it would never be easy.
Broncos will likely mark Simmons again
I made a mistake in my column last week designing the 2021 franchise etiquette class – which is robust and with a number of “repeat offenders” if you like, in clubs that will apply the etiquette for the second consecutive year on the same player (or at least taking it seriously). The Broncos paid security guard Justin Simmons $ 11.4 million a year ago on the franchise brand and sources tell me it is very likely to apply again in 2021 as a means of trying to secure a long-term deal with the star. New general manager George Paton will not want to start his regime by seeing one of his best players walk out the door and I would be shocked if Simmons was not scheduled again in a few weeks. He probably has a lot of company from a year ago.
Three teams stand out as brown suitors
The Jaguars, Chargers and Colts make a lot of sense as potential suitors for Ravens’ left tackle / right tackle, Orlando Brown Jr., as their agent continues to seek trading options after being given permission to do so. Everyone has at least some degree of interest, Chargers and Jaguars have or are about to have potential generation QB in their newbie contract that urgently needs improved protection, and Brown displayed the ability to play his favorite position – left tackle – at a very high level replacing the injured All-Pro Ronnie Stanley last season. This is likely to take a while while teams await the salary cap and teams like Colts and Bears analyze their defender options. But there was enough initial interest that a win-win that would match the Baltimore player’s value and allow him to be paid as a left tackle is out of the question.