New research shows that maximum hurricane wind speeds around Bermuda “have more than doubled on average in the past 60 years due to rising ocean temperatures in the region”.
“Hurricanes are intensified by extracting energy from the ocean’s hot surface through air-sea heat flows, so a warmer ocean can lead to more intense hurricanes,” said a spokesman.
“Improving hurricane wind speed forecasts will help determine the right level of response before the storm and potentially limit the resulting damage in Bermuda.
“Between 1955 and 2019, the average hurricane intensity near Bermuda, as measured by maximum wind speed, increased from 35 to 73 mph – equivalent to more than 6 mph per decade. At the same time, sea surface and sub-surface temperatures in the region increase by up to 1.1 ° C, providing additional energy for hurricanes to intensify.
“The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, also develops a predictor for the intensity of hurricanes moving through the Bermuda area, using the average temperature of the upper ocean in the upper 50 m layer.”
Samantha Hallam, the lead author of this article at the University of Southampton and the National Oceanography Center [NOC], he said, “The approach we used could provide a better way to predict the intensity of the storm in Bermuda than current theory or operational methods alone. It can also be used in other parts of the subtropical Atlantic, where there is a shallow mixed layer depth, usually north of 25 degrees north.
“We used the theory of hurricane potential intensity, local weather balloon probes, observations of the surface and top of the ocean of conditions in and around hurricanes passing 100 km from Bermuda over the past 65 years [including direct hits and ‘near-miss’ storms]. “
Dr. Mark Guishard, co-author and Director of the Bermuda Meteorological Service, said that “the research demonstrates the greater relevance of heat from the top of the ocean in relation to sea surface temperatures only in predicting the intensity of the hurricane.
“Preliminary tests with the recent passage of Hurricane Paulette show promising results that this technique could be developed as an additional operational tool for local meteorologists.”
These findings are the result of a statistical analysis of hurricane trajectories within a 100 km radius of Bermuda, between 1955 and 2019. The research used observations of the temperature of the surface and subsurface of the oceans of the Bermuda Atlantic Times Series [BATS] Hydrostation S program, administered by the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences.
This research was funded by the Natural Environmental Research Council [NERC] and Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, and involved collaboration between the University of Southampton, the National Oceanography Center, the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences and the Met Office.
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