The possibilities of Detroit Lions with the seventh overall choice in the 2021 NFL Draft are almost endless. They could add their quarterback from the future. They could arrest a receiver to fill the drastic need there. There’s also a good chance that Detroit will have a chance to hit the best defender in the draft, whether it’s Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons or whoever you believe is the best defensive striker in this year’s class.
But The Athletic’s Dane Brugler takes a totally different path in his latest simulation sketch. With the top three quarterbacks off the board – Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Zach Wilson (Jets) and Justin Fields (Panthers via negotiation) – the Lions would be in a central position throughout the draft.
Trey Lance is still on the board, and many consider him to be the final quarterback in this class. So Brugler has the Lions phone ringing off the hook, and they end up dropping to 19. But here’s what they get from the Washington Football Team, hungry for defenders.
Washington receives
- Lions choice in the first round (7th overall)
Lions receive:
- Choice of Washington in the first round (No. 19 overall)
- Choice of Washington’s third round (No. 82 overall)
- Washington’s choice for 2022 in the first round
The drop of 12 positions is significant and probably means that Detroit would put itself out of contention for a top player in this class. However, the return here is great. Detroit takes a choice of the third round, giving them three in that round to go with their own original (72nd) and the Rams’ (89th). Commerce also adds other 2022 choice of the first round, which would mean that Detroit would have five first round choices in the combined 2022 and 2023 draft. I’m already sweating.
Referring to the trade chart, here are the values of these choices:
Washington: 7th overall = 1,500 points
Detroit:
- 19th overall = 875 points
- 82nd overall = 180 points
- 2022 choice of first round =?
Total points = 1,055 + choice of first round in 2022
For this trade to be uniform, the choice of the first round received from Washington next year must be worth 445 points, which is equivalent to the 45th overall choice – more or less in the middle of the second round. Therefore, if Lions see a first round choice for next year with roughly the same value as a similar choice this year, that exchange is strongly in their favor. However, it is common practice in the NFL to discount a choice next year as a round later in this year’s draft. So having that choice for the first round of 2022 for the value of a second round in the middle of this year makes sense.
What could Lions really do with this outline? Brugler gives Lions Notre Dame linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah the 19th overall choice. Owusu-Koramoah is the linebacker / security combination that has become fashionable in today’s NFL, where speed is needed at all levels of defense. In just two years with Fighting Irish, Owusu-Koramoah has emerged as a great player, scoring 24.5 tackles for defeat, 7.0 sacks and seven passes saved in 25 games.
The Athletic’s Chris Burke started where Brugler left off and finished the Lions simulation to see what the whole thing would look like. With the extra choice of the third round, Burke selects UCLA defensive striker Osa Odighizuwa to go along with a band of defensive teams with other Detroit choices.
It is a tempting sketch of a combination simulation, as we know that Lions are taking a long-term view of this franchise. It can hurt to lose a top player, but if Detroit really wants to commit to building a young, strong base, this is a scenario that general manager Brad Holmes needs to consider seriously.