Disney’s “Black Widow” and Universal’s “F9” are about to kick-start the movie season. However, the blockbuster is unlikely to arrive on time.
Although neither film has been postponed, industry experts and insiders speculate that the next round of delays on Hollywood release dates will begin to impact in mid-2021.
At this point, it is almost expected that the films that will be released in the first half of the year will be moved again. With coronavirus cases on the rise and the launch of the vaccine going more slowly than many expected, studios and, by extension, cinema operators, are essentially in the same situation as 10 months ago: the public does not go to the cinema.
Even with President Joe Biden’s recent announcement that the United States will be able to vaccinate 300 million people by July, it is still too early to say how quickly Americans will be able to resume daily activities.
In the meantime, however, ticket sales are not helping studios much. With 60% of U.S. theaters closed, the top 10 films combined yielded between $ 7 million to $ 12 million each weekend, according to Box Office Mojo. To make matters worse, conversations about the reopening of cinemas in major markets like New York and Los Angeles have apparently stopped, and Hollywood players have made it clear that they do not intend to open a busy tent without the cinemas in the back by welcoming customers.
After MGM announced in January that “No Time to Die”, Daniel Craig’s last performance as James Bond, will no longer hit theaters in April (it is now scheduled for October 8), this generated a small wave. Universal pushed Bob Odenkirk’s thriller “Nobody” for April, Paramount skipped “A Quiet Place Part II” for September and Sony hit “Ghostbusters: Afterlife and” Cinderella “for November and July, respectively. (Meanwhile, Warner Bros., apparently operating in another universe due to its HBO Max hybrid contract, moved “Godzilla vs. Kong” two months from May to March).
However, the two biggest films scheduled to debut in the coming months, the Marvel adventure led by Scarlett Johansson, “Black Widow” (set for May 7) and the sequel to “Fast and Furious” “F9” (set for May 28), have not wavered. And it is not because their respective studios are optimistic that they will be able to open them in theaters as planned. The decision is not And if these securities must be moved, it is more likely to be a matter of assessing where to move them.
However, it is an especially significant decision because postponing “Black Widow” and “F9” signals to the rest of the film industry that the trip to the cinema may be absent in another summer season.
There have been frequent rumors that “Black Widow” may keep its release date in May and follow a path similar to “Raya and the Last Dragon”, which means it would premiere simultaneously in theaters and Disney Plus for a premium price. In Disney’s quarterly earnings conference call on Thursday, Disney CEO Bob Chapek debunked this theory and emphasized that the studio “still intends to [‘Black Widow’] to be a theatrical release. “
According to insiders, this is partly because Marvel Studios boss Kevin Feige, the chief architect behind the meticulously built Marvel Cinematic Universe, opposed a hybrid launch. Having produced many of the studio’s highest grossing films, including “Avengers: Infinity War” and “Avengers: Endgame”, Feige’s opinion certainly has considerable weight at Disney. But that does not mean that the powers cannot convince Feige to change his mind – or to annul him completely.
Sources suggest that Disney has three to four weeks before making a decision on “Black Widow” and Universal has a little more time for “F9” because it is not expected to open until three weeks after the Marvel film. “Black Widow”, in particular, represents its own set of complications due to the interconnected nature of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which now encompasses both films intended for cinema distribution, and limited, continuous TV series created for Disney Plus. Hitting “Black Widow” means that “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (July 9) and “Eternals” (November 5) would almost certainly be shuffled too. It could also disrupt the carefully planned launch of its Disney Plus programs – after “The Falcon and the Winter Solider” in March, at least four other titles are due to debut on the streamer this year.
Meanwhile, Universal plans to maintain a traditional “F9” theatrical release because “Fast & Furious” is among the studio’s most profitable properties. Before the pandemic, the impending inflow would have easily generated more than $ 1 billion worldwide. In the current circumstances, getting ticket sales anywhere near that number would be as unreal an accomplishment as any of the gravity-defying acrobatics performed in a “Quick” movie. Although Universal last year entered into an agreement with major theater chains, including AMC and Cinemark, to put its films in demand earlier than usual, even the most optimistic outcome would result in a money-losing proposal due to the market impaired theatrical. Few countries have reopened cinemas, and very few people are going to the areas where cinema has returned.
For now, Universal is waiting to see how the box office recovers in China, where “Fast” films are hugely popular. Depending on Asian countries, “F9” may end up opening in late summer, possibly in July or August, or even in 2021. There is even a world in which another year is postponed.
“Black Widow” and “F9” are not small proposals; each carries nine-digit marketing campaigns in addition to production budgets of more than $ 200 million. Christopher Nolan’s “tenet”, which tried to restart the trip to the cinema last September and grossed $ 363 million globally, achieved the strongest result so far for a coronavirus era launch. Months later, “Wonder Woman 1984” raised a meager $ 154 million worldwide. If “Black Widow” and “F9” replicated these results, they would lose millions and millions.
One positive aspect: “Black Widow” and “F9” benefit from brand recognition, which means that the general public is already familiar with these franchises. Their respective studios do not need to reintroduce the characters to the public in the same way that they would with an original property. And unlike James Bond, who has profitable partnerships with Heineken and Audi, among others, neither “Fast” nor “Black Widow” has significant ties to consumer products, which makes it easier and less expensive for them to choose and change for a new date.
The eventual retreat of “Black Widow” and “F9” could have serious implications for the film industry. Various titles, including the science fiction adventure “Free Guy” by Ryan Reynolds (May 21), Paramount’s “Infinite” starring Mark Wahlberg (May 28), Sony’s “Venom” sequel (June 25) and “Top Gun: Maverick” (July 2), remain on the calendar. But plans can be changed if “Black Widow” and “F9” wave the white flag in the summer.
What is complicated is that the last half of the year was so full that there is hardly room for new titles without pushing others back. Starting in the fall, blockbuster seekers are scheduled almost every week: “A Quiet Place” (September 17), “Many Newark Saints” (September 24), “Dune” (October 1), “Halloween Kills “(October 15),” Eternals “(November 5),” Ghostbusters: Afterlife “(November 11),” Mission: Impossible “(November 19),” West Side Story “(December 10) and” The Matrix 4 ”(December 22).
Looking more closely, it seems that no one told the holiday season that there is still a strong pandemic.