The Mets’ trade talks with the Chicago Cubs for a third base star Kris Bryant have been resumed, according to Andy Martino of SNY.
With Bryant back in the Mets game, what kind of package should New York scrap?
Bryant is under a $ 19.5 million contract in 2021 and is expected to take action after the season, which means his situation is no different than with Francisco lindor early this off-season, before the Cleveland Indians – desperate to clear the payroll – negotiated with him and Carlos Carrasco for Mets.
Like Bryant, Lindor is set to reach the free agency after the 2021 season and will receive a high salary this season ($ 22.3 million). Also like Bryant, Lindor is coming out of a low season. But for Lindor, his 2020 was still productive.
Meanwhile, Bryant’s was alarming.
He hit only .206 / .293 / .351, being limited to 34 games due in part to an oblique injury.
Bryant also lost 60 games in 2018 due to a shoulder injury that affected his power. He hit only 13 home runs in 2018, but recovered to break 31 in 147 games in 2019, while cutting 0.282 / 0.382 / 0.521.
Although Bryant’s performance in 2020 seems like an aberration and his advantage is huge, it shouldn’t cost more than what is necessary to obtain Lindor and Carrasco.
And with Scott Boras as Bryant’s agent, the likelihood that the Mets will extend it (if they are interested in doing so) is probably less than their chances of extending Lindor.
Bryant being a likely rental is not the Cubs’ problem. They are free to ask for what they want in return. But for the Mets, they should be drawing a line in the sand when it comes to what they are willing to part with. What should that line be?
Team President Sandy Alderson said earlier in the off-season that the team was not necessarily reluctant to part with the prospects. To be sure, they were primarily opposed to negotiating their most valuable potential customers.
The Mets did not get rid of any of the top six when negotiating with Lindor and must have the same philosophy in the negotiations for Bryant.
This means that Francisco Alvarez, Matt Allan, Ronny Mauricio, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Brett Baty, and JT Ginn it must be off limits.
The types of players listed above are rarely moved in the lease negotiations, and the Mets should stick to it.
Instead, New York should be willing to part with one of its top 10 candidates – think of a player as the third baseman Mark Vientos – and another high-ceiling prospect in the top 30, which is years away from the big ones.
This will almost certainly not be enough, however.
While negotiating with Lindor and Carrasco, the Mets negotiated with potential Isaiah Greene together with Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario – two valuable players from the big league who have almost a decade of team control combined.
To get Bryant, they may have to get rid of another valuable piece of the big league, but the overall package should not be at the level of what it took to get Lindor and Carrasco.
For Martino, the Cubs have already expressed interest in negotiating for JD Davis, which will earn just $ 2.1 million in 2021 and still has four years of team control left.
Although Davis is a promising young hitter, his defense at third base (and in the left field) is a serious concern. Bryant’s defense in third is above average, while his offensive top is literally that of an MVP.
Will a package from Davis and Vientos (or another candidate who is not in the Mets’ top six, but in the top 15) solve this for Bryant? Possibly.
If the Cubs want an additional perspective, the Mets must insist that Chicago resume Jeurys Familia and a large part of the $ 11 million he owes this season.
Should the Mets be willing to give up that kind of package to Bryant? yea.
After Trevor Bauer he chose to go to Los Angeles, although the Mets offered him more money, it looked like the Mets had a big play left this offseason – with an exchange for Bryant between the potential plays that made the most sense.
With negotiations now resumed, the Mets must be aggressive, but firm. The end result may be a left side of the infield in 2021 that features not only Lindor, but also Bryant.