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| 🔄Last week: Nº 1 | Record: 19-0. The Zags achieved their seventh and potentially final victory on Quad 1 on Monday night with an 82-71 victory on BYU. There is an interesting debate about Gonzaga vs. Baylor for overall number one status. Starting today, I would narrowly put Gonzaga on top. It is No. 1 in four of the six team sheet metrics (and No. 2 in the other two), has a record of 7-0 in the first quarter and claims victories over Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa and Virginia – all on neutral courts. |
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| 🔄Last week: No. 2 | Registration: 17-0. The Bears announced on Monday that three more games would be postponed, putting them on the shelf until at least February 20. BU is ranked first on the NET and has a record of 6-0 in Quad 1 games. The selection committee has six metrics referenced in its team sheets. Baylor is No. 1 in four (NET, BPI, KenPom and Sagarin) and No. 2 in the other (KPI, Strength of Record). The question changed from “Is Baylor undefeated?” for “Will Baylor be able to play at the previous level when he returns?” |
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| ⤴️Last week: Nº 7 | Registration: 16-4. No one is going to put Ohio State on that higher level with the other two yet, but know this: the eight wins from the Buckeyes’ Quad 1 (there were nine until the NET update over night) outperform the rest of the sport. OSU is 8-3 in the first quarter and also has six wins on the road, which equals Baylor and Gonzaga for most of the major non-intermediate teams. Monday night’s win in Maryland moved OSU from No. 7 to No. 6 on NET. There are three obvious # 1 seeds at this point, so you can start to separate the others. |
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| 🔄Last week: Nº 4 | Record: 13-1. The Wolverines are scheduled to finally return this weekend in Wisconsin. Michigan is 4-1 in Quad 1 games. It is a low stock, but the Big Ten will get that number of 5 to 10 Quad 1 games for this team by the end of the month, as long as there are no more spots on the UM schedule. Considering all things at this stage, this is probably the final # 1 seed. |
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| ⤴️Last week: Nº 9 | Record: 13-3. The Wahoos are in 5th place here, but 7th in the last NET ranking. But they have a lot to prove thanks to the 2-2 Quad 1 record. The best win for this team is in Clemson. The next best win is at Notre Dame. There is also that neutral court defeat for San Francisco that we cannot forget. Fortunately, UVA has been playing so well for most of last month that it has continued to climb the ranks going 9-1 since Christmas. |
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| 🔻Last week: Nº 3 | Registration: 12-2. Wildcats have obtained a more consistent respect in the human ranking than in the computer. This is a 2-2 team on Quad 1 that has played 14 games in total and is not really entitled to 1 seed status at this time. The VU is the 11th in the NET, with its highest rating in any of the six metrics, being the 7th in Strength of the Registry (SOR). The victory in Texas was worth a lot for a long time, but a victory at Creighton this Saturday would really enhance the profile of Jay Wright’s team. |
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| ⤴️Last week: Nº 15 | Record: 15-3. Trojans invaded the AP ranking this week, but I would say that this group is still not getting the attention it deserves. The USC has high-profile wins against BYU on a neutral court in Arizona and Stanford, as well as a home win over UCLA. I’m not saying that this is seed number 3 as of today, but it is clearly number 4 at worst. A 3-1 mark on Quad 1 with just a few more top games remaining on the schedule. This seems to be the best team in the Pac-12. |
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| ⤴️Last week: Nº 16 | Record: 13-3. Here is a team with a real black-or-white metric discrepancy. You see the solid record. However, Missouri is No. 35 on the BPI and No. 32 on the Sagarin … while ranking the THIRD PARTY on the KPI and the FIFTH on the SOR. This is wild. As of today, Mizzou is 25th on the NET and has a record of 4-3 Quad 1, with no losses outside that quadrant. |
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| 🔻Last week: Nº 5 | Record: 16-2. Unfortunately for the Coogs, the elbow 112-46 in Nossa Senhora do Lago at the weekend does not count for this team’s curriculum. Houston is not getting any help from the American this season. The team’s first three wins include a good one on a neutral over Texas Tech and then an SMU scan. It will be necessary to win to give this team two defeats – which is NET’s number 5 – any chance of a second division. |
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| 🔻Last week: Nº 8 | Record: 14-4. Great disparity between Hey Nineteen’s love and what almost all other rating systems think of Hokies. Thirty-four on the NET, 35 on KenPom … but 15 on SOR! Two important victories to be noted, one against Villanova, an outstanding victory during Bubbleville’s time. The other comes against Virginia (at Virginia Tech) on January 30. No ugly losses here. Long-term projection, I think Virginia Tech’s roof is seed # 3 and its floor is # 7. |
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| 🔄Last week: Nº 11 | Record: 10-3. The Seminoles are preparing to play their 14th match of the season on Saturday at home against Wake Forest. FSU’s best wins are in Louisville and at home against Florida by 12. There is a strange loss at home against UCF, which is Quad 3, and the reason why the Noles are in 24th place on the NET. Only four opportunities (2-2) in the first quarter. This is a talented team that can move north in the coming weeks, if the schedule remains intact. |
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| 🔻Last week: Nº 10 | Record: 16-5. The only team that has played just one Quad 4 match in this ranking is Villanova. The lack of low-cost competition can ultimately boost Bama and help him secure second place next month. The tide (NET = No. 9) is 5-3 in Q1, 7-1 in Q2 and 3-1 in Q3. What is interesting is that there is still a relative disagreement in the predictive metrics at this point, considering how high the ranking of this team is. Bama’s No. 6 according to KPI but No. 11 by Sagarin and No. 13 by BPI. |
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| ⤴️Last week: N / R | Record: 13-5. For the first time in a long time, welcome back, Illini. NET # 4’s Illinois team has a 7-4 mark in Quad 1 games. These seven Ws are more than any other team except Ohio. Illini won four in a row and could have the best five-game losing streak in 18 games for any team in recent memory: Baylor in neutral; in Missouri; at Rutgers; vs. Maryland; vs. Ohio State. |
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| 🔻Last week: Nº 13 | Record: 13-4. Volunteers’ victories in Missouri, at home against Colorado and at home against Kansas are contributing a lot to maintaining the profile of this team. UT has a record of 4-4 Quad 1, but it is notably in 8th place on NET. It is not possible to get Alabama in the SEC ranking, but it still looks like it has a good chance of a No. 3 seed as of today. |
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| 🔻Last week: Nº 6 | Record: 12-5. The curriculum has undoubtedly been very successful recently. Texas is 2-4 in its last six, its only victories in that stretch being a sweep of the humble state of Kansas. UT, most notably, has road wins against Kansas and West Virginia. He is 21st on NET and currently holds a 4-5 mark on Quad 1. General profile type similar to that of Kansas right now, actually. |
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| ⤴️Last week: N / R | Record: 14-5. Mountaineers enter and expel Texas Tech in the process. West Virginia is now 17th on the NET and 5-5 in Quad 1 games. No loss outside the upper quadrant, and only one game in the fourth quarter, which will ultimately increase the WVU (and / or serve as a cushion) to prevent it slides a seed lower than expected. Almost no bad team on its board will matter when the committee gathers statistics next month. |
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| ⤴️Last week: N / R | Record: 17-3. The Ramblers are in the AP Top 25 this week and are currently projecting themselves as a better team than the one who made the Final Four. But their only Quad 1 game came on December 15 in Wisconsin and they lost by 14. And in Quad 2, Loyola Chicago is 3-2. Two gigantic Q1 games on the road against 18-1 Drake await this weekend. This team is 12th (12th!) On NET, which is incredible, but only 57th on KPI and 46th on SOR. |
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| ⤴️Last week: Nº 19 | Registration: 20-1. This is a team whose resume appears to have been written on rice paper. The Bruins win love here because of a 20-1 record and a 15.3 point winning margin. But SOR is the only Belmont metric that gives you any hope for an at-large right now. It’s 43rd in Record Strength, still 67 in NET and all the way down in 200 in KPI and 97 in Sagarin. The best win was at Murray State, which with 9-9 and 145th place at KenPom is playing well below expectations this season. The only other defeat that this team could endure and still maintain the hope of a fugitive would be in the game for the title. |
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| 🔻Last week: Nº 18 | Record: 12-5. I think the Sooners’ recent winning streak over Kansas, Texas and Alabama will end up putting OU in a really good position in a nice seed row. Lon Kruger’s team woke up on Wednesday in 19th place on NET. I have indicated a few teams above that vary widely between metrics; this is not the case in Oklahoma. OR is in four positions across all six metrics. All his losses are Quad 1, where he holds a 4-5 record. It will reach 5-5 with a win in West Virginia this weekend. |
