Dr. Ashish Jha said on Monday that the United States is “on the road to recovery” from COVID-19, but there are still some “bumps”.
One of the biggest is the virus variant first detected in the UK, B.1.1.7, which spreads easier and faster than other strains.
To date, 690 cases of the variant have been detected in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which warned B.1.1.7 could become the dominant source of coronavirus infections in the country in March. Seven cases have been confirmed so far in Massachusetts, according to the CDC.
Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said on Monday that the United States is seeing positive trends, including falling rates of infection and hospitalizations. He also expects vaccines to be “plentiful” in late spring.
“I am optimistic about the end of spring and summer,” wrote Jha on Twitter. “But worried about the coming months.”
Infections fell by about 50%
Hospitalizations dropped about 33%
Vaccines will be abundant in late spring
All good news, right?
Yes!
But
On the road to recovery, we still have some bumps ahead of us
A major problem is the B117 – the UK variant
My discussion of why it’s so worrying https://t.co/InmwKXFWD3
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 8, 2021
The doctor pointed out data from Ireland and Germany that illustrate how B.1.1.7 can “quickly oppress a nation”. Ireland, he noted, used a blockade to control infections in October. But as the UK variant started to circulate, the country saw “exponential growth”, seeing its number of cases multiply more and more in three weeks. The country went into total blockade at the end of december.
At its peak in early January, Ireland saw 132 new cases per 100,000 people, according to Jha – a rate the United States has never seen.
“Our vacation ‘peak’ was small in comparison, ”wrote Jha.
As it stands, Jha estimated that “maybe” 2% of COVID-19 infections in the US are caused by the UK variant.
“But we don’t know why we’re not doing enough genomic surveillance yet,” he wrote. “Therefore, most public health experts expect a peak in B117. But we can avoid a horrible spike that destroys our hospitals and kills tens of thousands. “
To prepare for and contain this increase in the variant, the United States needs to “substantially increase” genomic surveillance to research the strain.
Once infections start to increase, actions must be taken quickly to contain the spread, he said.
“Our vaccines will work against B.1.1.7,” wrote Jha. “And they will mitigate the effects on people at high risk if we can get them into combat quickly enough. Today’s analysis shows that B117 will spread across the United States, but it does not need to destroy us. We have the tools to beat it. “
B117 is much more contagious – so it can quickly take over a nation
Excellent article on Andersen’s article and broader questions from @carlzimmer inside @nytimes today
If you want to understand what this variant can do to a nation, let’s look at some data
2 / 8https: //t.co/i29RXdr5jM
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
In mid-December, Germany (red) looked worse than Ireland (blue)
But the B117 was circulating in Ireland and starting to grow
Not so much in Germany
And what happened next in Ireland was really difficult
What you see is exponential growth
4/8 pic.twitter.com/tNeEMVmBbG
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
Cases peaked at 1/9 with 132 new cases / 100K
The US has never seen numbers like that
Only the Dakotas had such high infection rates
In comparison, here is the USA during this time
Our vacation “peak” was small in comparison
6/8 pic.twitter.com/Pvf61msJXq
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
It may be 2% of our infections are from B117
But we don’t know why we’re not doing enough genomic surveillance yet
Therefore, most public health experts expect a peak of B117
But we can avoid a horrible spike that destroys our hospitals and kills tens of thousands
Like?
8/9
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
Our vaccines will work against B117
And they will mitigate the effects on people at high risk
If we can put them in weapons fast enough
Today’s analysis shows that the B117 will spread across the US
But you don’t have to level us
We have the tools to beat you
Fin
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
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