Another weekend is coming. And there is another snowstorm in the forecast. Another nor’easter. This is the season, I suppose.
This coastal storm is different from the long-lasting, high-impact winter storm that hit the state earlier this week. (A “Miller Type A” vs. the previous track “Miller Type B”.) Although we have been watching this weekend’s storm develop since Monday, it was only Thursday afternoon and Friday morning that it became clear this coast -The hug system would bring a winter climate to New Jersey.
Therefore, at this point, we determined that the storm will have some impact. (It’s a “hit”.) And from this post, we have a good sense of the moment. It only remains to define accumulations and impacts.
I tried the total snowfall. But this is the kind of storm the track needs to have a big impact on the totals. A “movement” of 25 to 50 miles will make all the difference between being buried and trapped here.
Needless to say, these are not my favorite storms to predict. But we will try …
Timeline
This is the direct part. (I will never call a snow forecast “easy.”) Our initial precipitation range will arrive early Sunday morning, spreading from south to north between about 2 am and 6 am (the type of initial precipitation may be rain or mixed, but this will change quickly to an almost entirely snow event). Sunday morning hours, between about 8 am and noon. Final flakes will decrease Sunday afternoon, between about 1pm and 4pm
I want to comment on something I saw on social media. Some are calling this storm after a certain Great Football Game this also happens on Sunday. There is a certain appeal to use the name of this event, “snow” and “Sunday”, given the alliteration. Yet:
1.) This nation’s football league holds the trademark for that name, and they aggressively litigate against illegal and improper use. While news organizations and non-commercial mentions are generally safe, using this nickname to mark and promote your coverage is a gray area.
2.) The snow will end several hours before the game starts. Especially the heavy material. So I think it is a little misleading to connect the sporting event to the climatic event, when they are not happening at the same time. (In New Jersey, at least.)
Most Likely Scenario
For my first stab snow map, I opted for large areas of overlapping snow totals, aiming at what I consider to be reasonable, medium-range estimates of total snowfall. The snow target probably appears to land in the interior of South Jersey, with more than 8 “snow accumulation. It’s been a while since we had a South Jersey Special!
There are some models that paint up to a foot of snow over NJ. That is, the NAM, which can be frighteningly good at identifying and predicting heavy snow tracks. I am not ready to go there. Still.
Likewise, I believe zero snowfall is on the table for northern New Jersey here.
Another consideration here is the type of precipitation. The temperature profile of the atmosphere seems to point to an event with snow (instead of rain or hail). But there are two exceptions:
1.) Temperatures may not be cold enough early in the morning on Sunday for all snow. You can find rain or a winter mix for a few hours, before turning to snow. I don’t think it would have a significant impact on snow totals.
2.) The coast will be under the influence of an ocean breeze (relatively hotter) during part of the storm. This can keep the few kilometers along the coast warm enough for rain / mixing, rather than snow. This could result in significantly low snow accumulation along and east of the Garden State Parkway.
If the storm rocks
Due to technological and logistical issues, I have never tried this before. But watch what happens if I manually “move” my snow forecast about 50 miles in any direction.
The design is admittedly a little rough. And the numbers are even more inaccurate, just estimates. But I hope it gives you an idea of how our snow forecast might change going forward, as the storm’s trail approaches (northwest) or moves away (southeast) from New Jersey.
Winter storm clock
Since it is likely that we will experience substantial snowfall within 48 hours, the National Meteorological Service issued a Winter storm clock for most of the state:
– Midnight to 4pm Sunday … Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Salem, Somerset
—4 am to 6 pm Sunday … east of Bergen, Essex, Hudson, east of Passaic and Union
For the record, I think it was smart and necessary for the NWS to issue a wall clock at this stage of the game, given the uncertainty of the storm track and potential accumulations. I am not 100% in agreement with the geography or the timing of your forecast here. But I hope that when warnings and warnings are issued on Saturday, they will be much more targeted and specific.
Other impacts
There may be a brief gust of over 30 mph. It is not terrible.
But as this storm is passing quickly, it is not expected to push much water from the ocean towards the Jersey shore. I am encouraged by storm wave estimates of less than a foot. The tidal orientation suggests a wave of strong waves and small coastal floods behind the storm on Monday morning, but that’s about it.
It will be cold and windy behind the storm as the arctic air returns to the Garden State. It is not a “dangerous” cold, but certainly stormy and out of season. Monday morning’s low temperatures are likely to drop to the teenagers’ home, with chills possibly in the single digits.
Some reminders
I consider anything over 6 inches to be a “big” snow event. The journey will be difficult and dangerous, the traffic will be confusing and the plows will have to fall on the road. So this is where we’ll target the forecast in progress – who’s most likely to see “big” snow and who will end up in the “lesser” or “moderate” category.
It is also important to remember how much snow is still on the ground in North Jersey. We have had a good snow melt in the past three days. But there is not much space for the plows to put more snow. If Sunday’s winter moves north towards the snowiest solution, more serious and prolonged impacts are possible just because of that fact.
Finally, please, under this is an exceptionally difficult and sensitive prediction. Because of the nature of this “Nor’easter Miller Type A” and the sudden change of course, the “maneuver factor” is more important than ever. This forecast go change and evolve between now and the beginning of the storm. New data, new information and new analyzes will always result in a new perspective. This is how the weather forecast works.
What is the next?
We will use the Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon forecast models to zero in on the precise storm track, moisture content and temperature profile. I will probably launch a new blog about the weather around noon on Saturday, with a more refined and confident snow forecast.
Until then, enjoy your Friday night and have a great weekend.
Dan Zarrow is the chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecasts and real-time weather updates.