According to the UN, Al Qaeda leader in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Khalid Batarfi, was arrested and his number two, Saad Atef al Awlaqi, died during an “operation in the city of Ghayda, governor of Al-Mahrah, in October. ”
This is the first time that Batarfi’s arrest has been officially confirmed. The UN did not provide further details about the operation or about Batarfi’s current whereabouts. In early October, the SITE Intelligence Group drew attention to “unconfirmed reports” indicating that Batarfi had been arrested by Yemeni security forces in the governor of Mahra and then handed over to Saudi Arabia.
Batarfi became the leader of AQAP in early 2020, after his predecessor was killed in an air strike in the United States. Batarfi, who is in his 40s, comes from a Yemeni family, but was born in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He trained with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan before 9/11 and later joined the Al Qaeda branch in Yemen. Batarfi became a key ideologist for the group and, according to the UN, helped oversee its external operations before becoming a leader.
The fact that Batarfi allowed himself to be captured alive during the operation instead of guaranteeing “martyrdom” like Osama bin Laden will be a major embarrassment for Al Qaeda. In his inaugural speech as AQPA leader last March, Batarfi said that “according to our methodology, martyrdom for leaders is proof of their veracity, and is a medal of honor adorned by those leaders,” according to a translation of the SITE Intelligence Group.
Given that Batarfi was the “emir” of one of Al Qaeda’s top regional affiliates, there has certainly been no senior Al Qaeda leader captured alive since bin Laden founded the group more than 30 years ago. Despite issuing statements on other matters in recent months, AQAP has failed to acknowledge Batarfi’s arrest.
Batarfi’s loss is the latest in a series of setbacks for AQAP. In February 2020, the U.S. government announced that Batarfi’s predecessor, Qassim al-Rimi, had been killed in an air strike in Yemen. This followed a deadly attack in December 2019 on the Naval Air Station Pensacola by a Saudi air force officer who was coordinating with AQAP, according to the U.S. Department of Justice.
“In addition to the loss of leadership, AQAP is eroding its ranks caused by dissensions and desertions,” and was forced to break out of Bayda’s governorship after a significant military defeat, says the UN report.
Affirms that the global network of Al Qaeda “faces a new and urgent challenge with regard to its leadership and strategic direction, after an exceptional period of wear by its senior leaders” in Afghanistan, Mali, Somalia, Yemen and in the province of Idlib in Syria.
The report states that no member state was able to confirm the reports of the death of natural causes by Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in October. Last month, the U.S. government publicly confirmed reports that its deputy, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, had been killed in Iran in August.
The UN report suggests that the next in line to take over from al-Zawahiri is Saif al-Adel, an Egyptian operative al Qaeda veteran who, like al-Masri, is believed to have resided in Iran for a long time.
The report states: “If a succession to al-Zawahiri becomes necessary, it may be difficult for the new leader to take up residence in Afghanistan, as such a move could have an impact on the Taliban’s interests, given its obligations in the peace process. Member States expect Al Qaeda to overcome these challenges, but it is unclear whether it will emerge stronger, under more dynamic leadership, or in fact where its leaders will find a safe haven to operate. “
A potential future increase in ISIS terrorist attacks
In its broad assessment of the global jihadist threat, the UN report warns that, as restrictions on coronavirus are eased, “a wave of pre-planned attacks can occur” because ISIS is determined to make global headlines once again.
The UN report notes that ISIS has enjoyed a “captive audience” among Islamic extremists confined indoors and spending more time online during the pandemic, potentially creating an accumulated threat.
Between September and November last year, jihadists carried out a series of terrorist attacks in France, Germany, Austria and Switzerland, highlighting the lasting threat to Europe. Some of the attackers may have been motivated to act before it became more difficult to reach people who met in public.
A deadly terrorist attack on a church in Nice, France, in late October, and a deadly firearm attack in central Vienna, Austria, in early November, were carried out just hours before coronavirus blocks across the country come into force in France and Austria.
According to the report, one jihadist network in Europe that causes concern is the so-called “‘Lions of the Balkans’, an international network composed of elements based at least in Austria, Germany, Switzerland and the countries of the Western Balkans”.
According to the UN, both the Vienna attacker and one of the prisoners in connection with an ISIS conspiracy to attack US and NATO military bases in Germany thwarted by German police last April were linked to this network, as were three jihadists arrested in September in North Macedonia “was found to be involved in the final stage of planning a terrorist attack”.
An increasingly bleak picture of global threat
The report warns that “Source