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Jack Dempsey / Associated Press
The NFL quarterback carousel had its first round of the 2021 offseason when Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff were switched over the weekend. We will probably see more movement when the free agency starts on March 17, with Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick and others scheduled to hit the market.
However, some NFL teams may not want to wait until March for another round of the carousel. The Las Vegas Raiders, for example, could try to move quarterback Darek Carr in an attempt to acquire Deshaun Watson, a disgruntled Houston Texans.
At the very least, Las Vegas is likely to receive calls about Carr’s availability. It would be foolish not to do so. Whether the Raiders receive a reasonable offer for Carr and pull the trigger for a deal is another matter.
What would a reasonable commercial package look like for Carr? Which teams may be inclined to make one? That’s what we’re going to look at here.
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Matt Patterson / Associated Press
Before we get into potential suitors and commercial packages for Carr, it’s worth immersing yourself in your current situation. This will help provide context as we get deeper into the trade scenarios.
It seems that Carr has been the focus of commercial speculation since Jon Gruden took over as head coach in 2018. The latest rumor comes from Vincent Bonsignore of Las Vegas Review-Journal, who reported that Las Vegas could move Carr in an attempt to protect Watson.
“Several NFL members expect the Raiders to take calls from teams asking about Carr’s availability,” wrote Bonsignore. “… The increased demand for their services, experts say, could create a scenario in which an exchange of three teams allows Raiders to acquire Watson.”
For Bonsignore, an insider believes that Las Vegas could get two choices in the first round for Carr, which could then be reversed in an offer to Houston by Watson.
It is important to note that Carr had a solid season in 2020 – he ranked 11th in passing yards, 11th in passing touchdowns and 10th in passing ranking among full-time holders – and that he will be just 30 in March . However, Watson, who is only 25 and already has three Pro Bowls on his resume, should be seen as an upgrade.
Watson is looking for a new home away from the Texans as soon as possible.
“He just wants to leave,” said a source close to Watson, according to Jenny Vrentas and Greg Bishop of Sports illustrated.
Although Bonsignore did not cite the sources and nothing official came from the Raiders, it is plausible that the right offer would take Carr – and that Las Vegas, in turn, would pursue Watson.
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Eric Christian Smith / Associated Press
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Watson officially requested an exchange from the Texans.
“He really did it weeks ago. The new coach, David Culley, has not changed and will not change Watson’s thinking,” tweeted Schefter last week.
If Texans believe there is no way to fix the barriers with Watson, they may be interested in making a direct deal with Las Vegas that involves Carr. Although Carr is not the biggest signal caller that Watson is, he is at least an above average quarterback with a reasonable contract until 2022.
Seeing how Detroit Lions got two choices in the first round, one choice in the third round and Goff for Stafford, the Raiders would probably have to start with a similar package for Watson.
Raiders may have to surrender Carr, first round choices in 2021 and 2022 and additional compensation. Watson should be seen as more valuable than Stafford because of his age, but the next two Las Vegas choices in the first round are more valuable than the first rounds of 2022 and 2023 that were delivered in the Stafford deal – the teams normally they value future choices less than those of the current year.
“Different teams will evaluate future choices differently, so it’s difficult to create a default value for them. I usually use the last choice from that round in the current year as my value (so a choice from the first round in 2021 would be worth the choice 32 in 2020) “wrote RJ White of CBS Sports.
It is important to note, however, that both Las Vegas and Houston would have some juggling to make this work financially. Raiders and Texans are projected to exceed the salary cap this off-season.
The trade: Raiders receive Watson. Texans receive Carr, 2021 in the first round, 2022 in the first round and 2022 in the second round.
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Butch Dill / Associated Press
If reaching a deal directly with Houston is not an option, Raiders may consider doing what they can for Carr and then use those choices in an offer to Watson. The Chicago Bears might be willing to give up some premium draft capital to play together.
The Bears brought coach Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace back to 2021. However, they could be in control after failing to develop quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and produce just eight wins in 2020. Carr would be a clear update on Trubisky – who is scheduled to become a free agent – and could help Nagy and Pace to remain employed after 2021.
These two teams have also done business in the past. Pace helped orchestrate the trade that brought Raiders pass-rusher Khalil Mack to Chicago. Part of that package included two of the Bears’ first round selections.
Would Pace send two first-round picks to Las Vegas to land on Carr? Possibly. However, it is important to note that Chicago would have to finance the finances, since the Bears are projected to be over $ 10 million over the limit.
The trade: Raiders are given a choice of 2021 in the first round and a choice of 2022 in the first round. Chicago receives Carr and a choice of 2022 in the third round.
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Matt Patterson / Associated Press
The Indianapolis Colts is a playoff team without a quarterback after Philip Rivers retires. The Indianapolis playoff window is open for now, but it could be closed without a high-quality flag in the center.
That’s where Carr comes into the equation.
He could help keep the Colts’ Super Bowl window open for at least the next two seasons at a reasonable price. Its 2021 cap will be just over $ 22 million, which would allow the Colts to continue building their squad in the off-season.
Unlike the Raiders, Texans and Bears, the Colts are in a fantastic position when it comes to the salary cap. They are designed to have more than $ 68 million in available capitalization space, so they can easily take Carr’s salary and even add a free key agent or two beside him.
Since the Colts are in such good shape, they may be willing to offer Carr a first round pair. While a team like Chicago may want more in return for absorbing Carr’s contract, that shouldn’t be a problem for Indianapolis.
The trade: Colts Carr receiver. Raiders are given a choice of 2021 in the first round and a choice of 2022 in the first round.
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Mark Tenally / Associated Press
The Washington football team may also be without a full-back in 2021. Dwayne Haskins Jr. is gone, Alex Smith’s future remains undecided and the playoff standout, Taylor Heinicke, is set to be a free agent.
Washington can try to remedy your situation with a trade. According Ben Standig from The Athletic, the franchise made a serious run at Stafford before landing with the Rams.
“A person familiar with the situation said that the WFT offer included more immediate help than what Lions got,” Standig posted. “Detroit went the other way.”
By “immediate help”, Standig may be referring to 2021 draft choices. The Lions scored 2022 and 2023 in the first round of the Rams, along with a 2021 from the third round and Jared Goff.
If Washington believed it could chase a title now with Stafford – and without some of its choices this year – it could feel the same way about Carr. The WFT could offer more of its drawing capital to entice Raiders to pull the trigger on a deal. The extra choice of the third round that Washington received in exchange for Trent Williams could help there – with the team moving the second of its two third rounds (83rd overall).
Washington is estimated to have more than $ 33 million in limit space, so it shouldn’t be difficult to fit Carr’s contract.
The trade: Washington receives Carr. Raiders receive 2021 choices from the first round, 2021 choices from the third round and 2022 choices from the first round.
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Stew Milne / Associated Press
While it is not clear whether the New England Patriots pursued Stafford, it is clear that he was not interested in joining Bill Belichick and Co.
“Stafford told Lions that they could send him anywhere but New England, “wrote Tom E. Curran of NBC Sports Boston.
New England never had a chance against Stafford, but it could be a player for Carr. Armed with more than $ 54 million in projected boundary space, the Patriots have room to face it. They also have a need.
Tom Brady is about to play in the Super Bowl for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cam Newton’s experiment was a major failure. And the Patriots seem to have little faith in Jarrett Stidham’s choice for the fourth round of 2019. Even when Newton fought, Stidham remained on the bench.
Given the questionable recent history of choices in the New England first round – Isaiah Wynn and Sony Michel were reasonably average, while N’Keal Harry wasn’t even that – separating from a pair of candidates in the first round may not seem like a high price .
The Patriots may even launch Stidham as a development perspective, at least to silence local media about their place in the hierarchy.
The trade: Patriots are given Carr and a choice of 2021 in the fourth round. Raiders are given a choice of 2021 in the first round (No. 15 overall), a choice of 2022 in the first round and Stidham.
Limit and contract information via Spotrac.