Last week, we learned that the Baseball Hall of Fame class 2021 was blank. There was no committee of veterans in December and the BBWAA vote failed to push anyone to the 75 percent threshold required to vote. Curt Schilling was the most voted, with 71.1%. There was a lot of noise about the nothingness of the class on the Internet, as I am sure you have all heard. The last time there was an empty vote at BBWAA was in 2013 and what followed was a historic wave of Hall of Fame entries. This will not necessarily be repeated, but we will see new entries in the Hall in the coming years.
I will now look ahead and put myself out there, trying to predict what will happen. Here are the next 10 members of the Baseball Hall of Fame.
1. David Ortiz
Yes, I think Big Papi will go next year on his first try. We can save all discussions and cracks until December. I am simply predicting that he will enter.
2. Minnie Minoso
The committees of veterans of “Early Baseball” (before 1950) and “Golden Days” (1950-1969) will meet at the winter meetings next December for possible consecration in the 2022 Hall of Fame class.
Minoso fits into the Golden Days group. The impact he had on the game continues to receive more attention over the years and at some point he will enter. Unfortunately the tribute would be posthumous, since he died in 2015, but a delayed tribute is still an honor and he deserves one. We’ll say the committee got it right this time and Minoso will, along with …
3. Dick Allen
Allen also falls into the Golden Days group and, unfortunately, sometimes takes a death before the committee wakes up as a player deserved – and, to be clear, the initial failure here was in the BBWAA vote, where Allen peaked at 18, 9 percent of the vote in 1996.
I already talked about why I thought he deserved better and that can happen now, unfortunately after his death.
My forecast almost a year in advance is that the 2022 class in the Hall of Fame will be Ortiz, Minoso and Allen. Minoso and Allen would be elected before Ortiz, but I’m much more sure about Ortiz’s chances, hence the ranking order.
4. Scott Rolen
It is possible that I am wrong in the 2022 class where Minoso and / or Allen may fall short. Rolen can also join the group.
If Rolen does not make it to class 2022, he will continue his momentum long enough to make it to class 2023. There has been so much movement here that it would make no sense unless a major scandal derailed him. Take a look:
- 2018: 10.2 percent
- 2019: 17.2
- 2020: 35.3
- 2021: 52.9
5. Carlos Beltran
Beltran comes to the poll for the 2023 class and it shouldn’t be long before they enter. Although he doesn’t have the old school tradition markers of 3,000 hitting or 500 home runs, he is everywhere he should matter. He finished with 2,725 hits, 565 doubles, 435 homers, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 runs and 312 steals. He won three Gold Gloves in the center field along with that power-speed combination while hitting the average and posting solid OBPs. Although there is a lot of emphasis on a particular plate appearance, he is one of the most talented postseason hitters of his generation, hitting .307 / .412 / .609 with 15 doubles, 16 homers, 42 RBI, 45 races and 11 steals in 65 playoff games. He is the ninth in the central JAWS field behind eight Hall of Fame (most of the inner circle, big names of all time) and Mike Trout. One thing that may work against Beltran, however, is his link to the Astros’ plate theft scandal.
6. Fred McGriff
Back on the veterans committee, this time it is the Today’s Game committee (1988 to the present), which will meet at the 2022 winter meetings to vote for the 2023 Hall of Fame class. Players must have been retired for at least 15 years and can no longer be eligible on the BBWAA ballot.
For years, I did everything I could to bring people on board McGriff’s case as a Hall of Fame and he ended up failing in the 2019 vote.
While there is a constant discussion about players who participated or may have participated in PEDs, it is widely accepted that McGriff did this naturally, baby.
I have a certain cautious optimism that the respect that McGriff has earned over the years from his colleagues and the cleanliness angle works in his favor here on this committee and he does it.
7. Kenny Lofton
It may also be illusory here, but Lofton is another BBWAA error that I would like to see corrected. The prototype of the initial man, Lofton reached 0.299 with a percentage of 0.372 based on a 17-year career. He is 15th in stolen career bases and 63rd in racing. Combining his exceptional base race and defense with his top-of-the-line skills, Lofton is tenth in the central JAWS field behind eight Hall of Fame members, Mike Trout and Carlos Beltran. He is one point ahead of Andruw Jones. Lofton is also the career leader on post-season stolen bases and is tied with Rickey Henderson for the most robberies in a single post-season (11 in 1995).
If I’m right here – and it is incredibly difficult to get these things right specifically for years, then it’s doubtful – Rolen, Beltran, McGriff and Lofton would be a good class of guys who probably weren’t as appreciated as they should have been playing. Yes, even Beltran.
Beltre is just below the list because he doesn’t appear on the ballot until the 2024 vote in the Hall of Fame. Among his 3,166 hits (17th of all time), 636 doubles (11th), 477 homers (31st), 1,707 RBI (25th), 1,524 runs (64th), excellent defense and sympathy outside the cards, I’m not expecting much resistance. For those interested, he’s fourth in the JAWS from third base, behind Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews and Wade Boggs, with George Brett and Chipper Jones right behind.
9. Todd Helton
Helton does not have the impulse of Rolen, but he is not far away. In three votes, he went from 16.5 percent to 29.2 to 44.9. With seven attempts remaining and all the time in the world for the voting body to consider its work that is presumed to be PED free, I believe it is on its way. Let’s guess it’s the 2024 class.
10. Andruw Jones
After stagnating from the first to the second year, Jones went from 7.5 to 19.4 to 33.9 percent. He has six voting cycles remaining. I think there is a big boost here and let’s assume he joins Beltre and Helton in the 2024 class (possibly with Braves’ field mate Dale Murphy? See below at the end of the “veterinary committee” selection).
Wild cards
Curt Schilling – Lost in the rubble of self-sabotage that has become all too familiar with Schilling’s post-player career is that he just got the highest percentage of votes in his passage through the polls, 71.1%. He had only 16 votes before induction. He would probably have a great chance of entering next year if he was just as private as he claims to be. Instead, I feel like he’s going to keep shooting himself in the foot. However, nothing would surprise me. He really could be next.
Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens – I am not seeing anything that can realistically happen to move them to the 13 percent they need to reach the 75 percent limit. It’s not out of the question, of course, so keep watching.
Alex Rodriguez – Participating in next year’s polarizing vote may be the most polarizing figure of all. Manny Ramirez fails to break 30 percent, but A-Rod did better and did not have two failed PED tests. Bonds and Clemens are close, but A-Rod was suspended by the league for 211 games for breaking rules that Bonds and Clemens did not seem to break, since there was a system of punishment in place. I have no idea where the A-Rod lands, but I think it is somewhere south of 75 percent.
Omar Vizquel – He lost 3.5 percent in this voting cycle to 49.1. This is still entirely within reach and we will see what results from the MLB’s domestic violence investigation into allegations against Vizquel.
Billy Wagner, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon – What to do with the clasps? Wagner is our guide here and he has gained almost 30 percent in the last two voting cycles to 46.4 percent this year. Nathan and Papelbon don’t stand a chance without Wagner entering and even if he does, they will have a difficult path. I thought about putting Wagner ahead of Jones at number 10 above. He has a real shot.
Gary Sheffield – He is also gaining momentum and has 40.6 percent through seven votes. I believe it will reach a plateau below 75
Joe Mauer and Chase Utley – Mauer and Utley will end up in the Hall, it says here, but I’m not sure if they will make it on the first try and join Beltre for the 2024 class. They only missed the cut because I was stopping in a top 10. They could also do that on the first try and it wouldn’t be shocking.
More veterinary committee players – It is extremely difficult to get a read on what the committees will do for a number of reasons. We do not know who will be on the ballots, we do not know exactly who will be on the committees and we do not have a reading on the consistent voting history, as such. Minoso, Allen, McGriff and Lofton were polite assumptions, but they were still assumptions. Referees, managers, general managers and owners were not considered here, as I was only listing players and there are certainly many other players to be considered, such as Gil Hodges, Tony Oliva, Ken Boyer, Albert Belle, Will Clark, Dave Stieb, Bernie Williams and many others, not to mention the pre-1950s, where I’m not even going to try to guess how the committee would vote. In addition, the Modern Baseball Committee (1970-87) meets for the 2024 class and may include someone like Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Thurman Munson, Dwight Evans, Lou Whitaker and / or a number of other candidates worthy.