The past few weeks in the United States have been the deadliest in the coronavirus pandemic, and residents in most counties continue to be at an extremely high risk of contracting the virus. At the same time, transmission appears to be declining across the country, with the average number of new cases 40 percent lower on January 29 than at the peak in the United States, three weeks earlier.
Other indicators reinforce the current downward trend in cases. Hospitalizations dropped significantly from record levels in early January. The number of tests per day has also decreased, which may obscure the true toll of the virus, but the rate of positivity for these tests has also decreased, indicating that the delayed spread is real. Still, the average daily death rate reported in the past seven days remains above 3,000, compared to less than 1,000 a day in September and October.
Hospitalizations
Improving.
100,000
October 1
January 29
-24%
New tests per day
With fewer tests, more cases are lost.
2 million
October 1
January 29
-11%
Positive rate
Improving.
10%
October 1
January 29
-5 pct.
pts.
Note: tests are shown as seven-day averages. Positive test rates are calculated using cumulative numbers from the last seven days and exclude peaks from before the time period shown. The positivity rate was higher in the spring, when testing capacity was extremely limited.·Source: The Covid Tracking Project.
The country’s peaks were extremely high: almost 1% of the US population tested positive for the virus in the two weeks before January 8. This high starting point means that, even after the big drop, hospitalizations for Covid-19 remain at the levels seen in early December, when ICUs were almost full in much of the country. Currently, they are almost twice as high as the previous peaks in spring and summer.
Experts say the reduction could mark an inflection point in the outbreak, after months of growing cases. But new and more contagious variants threaten to halt progress and may even raise case rates to a new high if they persist, especially if the national launch of the vaccine faces obstacles.
Variants discovered in the United Kingdom and South Africa have been found in the United States. Vaccine manufacturers said their drugs appear less effective against the South African variant. Other variants are also emerging: researchers have discovered a variant from California, and one from Brazil that shares similarities with the South African variant appeared in the United States for the first time.
The variants may have already caused new outbreaks in the UK, Brazil and South Africa, and federal officials have warned that the UK variant may become dominant in the United States in March. But, at least today, its presence in the United States does not appear to have significantly undermined the general downward trend. Although transmission remains dangerously high in most parts of the country, all states are seeing a decrease in the number of new cases. Hospitalizations have also declined across the country.