US airlines have spoken out strongly against test mandates for domestic travel. Although nothing has yet become concrete and neither the White House nor the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) have released a plan to require passengers to test for travel, airlines have already expressed their discontent.
US airlines do not support domestic testing
This week, it was revealed that the Biden government was considering the possibility of domestic tests for air travel. It is not clear to what extent the authorities supported the idea and planned to put it into practice. However, discussions seemed limited within management and did not include industry professionals. This week, the airlines took a stand against it.
Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly stated the following in his fourth quarter earnings call against domestic testing:
“I am not aware that the CDC has contacted us. By extension, I am not aware that they have contacted Airlines for America. But yes, I think it would be a mistake. Is very expensive. As Tammy was pointing out in a previous interview to administer the test, we do not have adequate testing capacity for the country in the first place. Our emphasis should be on the two vaccines available and on implementing them and vaccinating the country, and I would hate it if we took our eyes off that ball. “
JetBlue COO Joanna Geraghty stated the following on her company’s earnings conference call:
“In the domestic scenario, it is difficult to see practically something like this working on this scale. Air travel is only a means of transport. You obviously have railroad, road transport, people need to travel, they will find a way to get there. They will find a way to see Mom and Dad and, frankly, putting that burden on air travel is, we think, very complicated. I’m also just concerned with testing capacity in the United States, I think, provoking a little bit about what you’re saying about Puerto Rico. In many parts of the country, test vacancies are scarce and, frankly, it takes many days and some cases actually return the results ”.
She continued with the concern of adding an undue burden to crew members who already need to monitor compliance with the mask in addition to all their current functions, which would be a logistical burden.
American Airlines also spoke out against the idea of home testing. CEO Doug Parker said he believed there were logistical difficulties in figuring out how to conduct large-scale home tests. Mr Parker also stated that there were no conversations with American about the testing institution.
Why airlines support international testing
Parker answered why airlines support international testing rather succinctly on American’s fourth-quarter earnings conference call. He stated the following:
“We support international testing because it is about making more people feel comfortable flying across borders and we have been working regularly in the administration to make that happen.”
The argument for the international test boils down to the test being a way to open travel while domestic travel, which is mostly open, would be undermined. While some airports are offering tests and others are selling machines to test at home, the infrastructure is not widely implemented to support testing each passenger before their trip.
The other reason is that airlines know that international demand is low. Even for sunny destinations in the Caribbean and Central America, operators are not seeing the same numbers as last year. Many people want to fly for domestic flights.
Think from a passenger’s perspective. When they begin their research on where to go, they first consider where they can and cannot go. A trip to see Hobbiton in New Zealand or ski in the Alps is out of the question. There are, however, some opportunities in the Caribbean and Central America.
Many of these countries require incoming travelers to provide proof of a negative test done a few days before departure. There is also an order for passengers returning to the USA to provide proof of a negative test done before departure. Therefore, if they are more risk averse, that same customer will likely choose to cross international travel.
This leaves domestic travel in the USA. That customer will see where activities are open, where restaurants are open, where there are fewer entry restrictions. Passengers will likely restrict this to places like Florida, Arizona or Hawaii in the United States.
Home testing will lead to fewer travelers
Friction in the travel process, whether it is a requirement to obtain a visa or an authorization to take a test, leads passengers to consider other, easier options. People who want to go on vacation will still find a way to go on vacation. This, however, is likely to be through a means of transport that does not require a runway.
Airlines know this and know that they cannot lose more travelers than they currently do. On Friday, January 29, the TSA registered 774,688 passengers entering security checkpoints in the United States. In 2020, that same Friday, almost 2.2 million passengers took off. And in 2019, that number was over 1.5 million.
The number of passengers fell by more than 60% year on year. As evidenced by the results list that came out in recent weeks, the current crisis is costing billions of dollars to major airlines and is unsustainable. These fewer passengers are also paying less for their ticket, on average, than they paid in 2020 or 2019, which means more bad news for airlines.
Home testing is far from a reality
A major relief for operators is that the requirement for home testing before the trip is far from reality. The Biden administration put forward the ideas. While there have been some claims that the agencies are actively looking into the matter, it is highly unlikely that any test protocol will take effect before consulting with industry groups.
A request from the CDC requiring masks for the duration of the trip aboard planes and airports takes effect from February 2 and increases President Biden’s request. The order exempts children under the age of two, people with responsibilities who cannot wear a mask because of their disability or for whom wearing the mask would create a risk to their health, safety or work obligations.
The order allows carriers to impose requirements for negative COVID-19 test results for travel. While it is possible that some airlines will require testing for passengers who cannot wear a mask, it is very unlikely that a general requirement imposed by an airline will apply to all travelers.
During his company’s earnings conference call, when asked if he believed that domestic testing would become a requirement for domestic flights, Delta CEO Ed Bastian succinctly stated the following:
“I think not.”
Do you think the US should institute domestic testing requirements for air travel? Let us know in the comments!