WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden is signaling a tougher line with the Taliban than his predecessor, with senior officials warning that the planned withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in May may be delayed if insurgents do not keep their promises.
A flurry of statements and comments from the White House, State Department and Pentagon this week left no doubt that the Biden administration had a skeptical view of an unstable peace process launched by former President Donald Trump and the Taliban’s willingness to break through. ties to Al Qaeda and other extremists.
The government, which said it was reviewing the situation in Afghanistan, faces a series of difficult choices that will compel authorities to weigh the risk of a Taliban takeover. Any delay in withdrawing US troops could trigger an escalation of violence and lead the Taliban to abandon peace negotiations with its opponents in the Kabul government, say former US military and officials.
Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said on Friday that the government is “looking closely at how far the Taliban are actually complying” with the provisions of a US-Taliban agreement signed last year.
The February 2020 agreement called for the withdrawal of US-led troops by May 2021 in exchange for the Taliban’s break with terrorist groups, dramatically reducing violence and entering into peace negotiations with the Afghan government.
Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said on Thursday that the Taliban was not keeping its promises in the deal, that it should open the door to a peace deal between the insurgents and the US-backed Kabul government.
“Without them fulfilling their commitments to renounce terrorism and prevent violent attacks against the Afghan National Security Forces, it is very difficult to see a specific path to the negotiated settlement,” said Kirby. “But we are still committed to that.”
In another break with the previous government, Biden’s team also made a point of stressing the importance of human rights and women’s rights in Afghanistan. The Taliban, known for their draconian rule and crackdown on Afghan women during their 1996-2001 reign, made no promises about the condition of women in their deal with the United States.
In his call to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Biden’s top diplomat, Antony Blinken, said that any peace deal needed to preserve “the progress made in the past 20 years on human rights, civil liberties and the role of women in Afghan society. “
The change in tone was well received by the Afghan government, which complained of being excluded from negotiations between Washington and the Taliban. President Ashraf Ghani said on Friday that he was excited about the approach of the new team and what he called “early, focused and systematic attention”.
Although the Biden government has indicated that it is prepared to halt withdrawal plans, if necessary, it has chosen to keep Trump’s peace envoy to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, at least for now.
Khalilzad, the architect of the US-Taliban agreement, has strained relations with the Ghani government. But President Ghani suggested that Khalilzad would be working for a new US president, with a more coordinated and predictable approach.
“Now Ambassador Khalilzad will report to a very organized decision-making process,” said Ghani at a virtual event organized on Friday by the Aspen Institute think tank.
“We have two very different roles. I represent the people of Afghanistan. He is an employee of the United States government,” said the Afghan president to Carol Lee of NBC News, who organized the session.
Ghani added that he and Afghan-born Khalilzad are former classmates and “a long time ago”.
Both studied at American University in Beirut and also later crossed into the United States.
Afghanistan-born American diplomat Khalilzad faced a difficult mission in trying to persuade the Taliban to agree to peace talks with his opponents while his boss, former President Trump, surprised him with tweets about the withdrawal of American troops from the country before schedule.
Khalilzad’s first task could be to convey to the Taliban that there was no guarantee that US and NATO troops would leave the country in May, unless insurgents showed that they were fulfilling their part of the agreement, said former US military and officers. .
Americans will have to persuade the Taliban that the deal is still alive, even if the withdrawal of troops is postponed until spring, said a former American official.
“On the Taliban side, if there is a delay, it is very important to get some kind of tacit agreement with them soon, because it will not help anyone if they withdraw completely from the agreement,” said a former US official with experience in Afghanistan. “They will need time to sell it to their fighters.”
Biden, however, has only limited influence over the Taliban after Trump withdrew most American troops in his last year in office. It would have been easier to put pressure on the Taliban for results if the United States could link the incremental reduction of troops to the insurgents’ concessions, the former official said.
Postponing the withdrawal of the United States indefinitely could damage the entire peace process, and the Taliban could return to a position of total war, resuming attacks on US forces, former officials said.
“The options they face are obviously very difficult,” said the former official.
There are now about 2,500 US troops in Afghanistan and more than 7,000 NATO-led forces on the ground. A year ago, there were 12,000 American soldiers deployed to the country, a number that dropped to about 8,600 in July.
When NATO’s defense ministers meet in February, the Biden government’s position on Afghanistan is likely to be high on the agenda. As US troop levels have plummeted in recent months, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that “leaving too early or in an uncoordinated way” carries serious risks, possibly allowing the country to become a sanctuary again. terrorist groups.
Retired U.S. general John Allen, who served as commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan from 2011 to 2013, said European allies with troops in Afghanistan are likely to be open to a postponement of withdrawal.
“My guess is that if the United States wanted to slow down, they (NATO) would also slow down” the pace of withdrawal, said Allen.
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“The president could argue that the Taliban is materially violating the agreement,” said Allen, a outspoken critic of the US-Taliban agreement.
A United Nations report in May concluded that the Taliban maintained close ties with Al Qaeda and sought its advice during negotiations with American officials.
Al Qaeda, which carried out the September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States, continues to operate in 12 provinces in Afghanistan, with 400 to 600 operatives and a training camp in the eastern part of the country, according to a report released to the Council United Nations Security Council.
The Treasury Department recently found that “Al Qaeda is gaining strength in Afghanistan while continuing to operate with the Taliban under the protection of the Taliban,” according to a January 6 memorandum to the Department of Defense inspector general.
The Taliban quickly rejected the Treasury Department account and claimed that all combatants in the terrorist group left Afghanistan. “The report was compiled by party circles and warmongers based on false information,” said Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid.
A Taliban leader who led negotiations last year with the Trump administration said on Friday that the insurgency was offering a “safe passage” for American troops to leave Afghanistan.
“In the history of Afghanistan, no one has ever given foreign invaders safe passage. So this is a good chance for Americans that we are giving them safe passage to come out under this treaty. We hope that when it does overhaul, they will reach the same positive point [conclusion], “Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, Taliban deputy peace negotiator, said Friday during a visit to Moscow.