Cardinals are talking about trade to Nolan Arenado

Cardinals are talking about trade to Nolan Arenado

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Oh no … has a central NL team finally decided that it would try to compete this season? Because, if the latest rumors are true, the St. Louis Cardinals may be focusing on an exchange for Rockies star, third baseman, Nolan Arenado.

Nolan Arenado apparently put himself in the commercial block not long after signing an eight-year, $ 260 million extension with the Rockies a few years ago, when his promised vision for the team’s future did not align with the franchise’s actions off the field. / in the market (basically, they didn’t spend as much / tried to compete as much as they told him they would). And then the Rockies have been trying to move a (justifiably) disaffected Arenado to make him happy … but also so that they can free up enough money to extend the future free agent Trevor Story for a long term.

And although “no business seems closed” yet, there are some specifics and quite dynamic (emphasis mine):

The Cardinals are discussing with the Rockies a deal that would bring the five-time All-Star third baseman to St. Louis, according to major league sources. No deal seems closed and the other players who may be involved are not known.

Arenado, 29, probably would waive its no-trade clause to join the Cardinals, and maybe agree to withdraw their right to choose to leave after the 2021 season. The Rockies, to escape their $ 199 million guarantee over the next six seasons, almost certainly would absorb at least one expensive Cardinal veteran in addition to receiving potential customers in the business.

NOTE: this is not the first time that the Cardinals and Rockies discuss such an agreement.

One of the biggest obstacles to any Arenado negotiation (besides all the money, of course) is the presence of an opt-out after the 2021 season. Because of this clause, any team that acquired it could not be sure that it would succeed. for more than a year, which makes agreeing a value in exchange particularly difficult. However, if Arenado rejects his opt-out, as he is supposed to be willing to do, it could help facilitate a deal by providing the Cardinals (or anyone else) with more control and certainty.

Another important detail here is that the Cardinals would send “an expensive veteran” contract back to the Rockies to help offset the significant money owed to Arenado. Perhaps third-base man Matt Carpenter ($ 18.5 million due in 2021, $ 18.5 million club option in 2022 with a $ 2 million purchase) would fit the bill? Just a hunch.

In any case, switching to Arenado can really be enough to make Cardinals favorites in a particularly weak NL Central this season – ZiPS has Carpenter at 1.7 WAR for 2021 and Arenado at 4.1 WAR, for what it’s worth. So this is a deal that I prefer not to see happen (and yes, I am aware of the Arenado campaign in 2020 and I realized the weaknesses away from Coors … I still don’t want it in St. Louis this season). And, of course, there is also the possibility that St. Louis will become Arenado’s permanent residence, even after the exchange / opt-out, which I also prefer to avoid.

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Now, there is a whole other aspect to this that we need to address: The market for Kris Bryant.

If Arenado is dealt with the Cardinals, this may be a good thing for the Bryant market (assuming a fair return *), because it takes out very similar competition (a right-handed hit, expensive 3B) from the market, while sending it for a team that would definitely NOT negotiate with Bryant. And, notably, Rosenthal mentions that the Braves also checked in at Arenado. Perhaps, then, we can include them more seriously in Bryant’s list of possible business partners (who, remember, we hope to take off as soon as Justin Turner signs his contract).

* Hopefully, Cardinals are forced to give up on a HAUL … for the obvious reasons that I want them to overpay on any trade (for the first time), but also to improve the associated KB trade market.

Of course, if the Rockies release enough money to extend Trevor Story (and if the Mets extend Francisco Lindor, as I hope), perhaps Javy Baez will see a lighter shortstop competition on the market next winter and decide to resist an extension with the Cubs . Or maybe I am being too pessimistic because everything has been difficult lately.

In any case, nothing has happened yet, and even Rosenthal admits that a deal is not necessarily closed. Then again, this looks like the kind of report that comes out just before things get serious.

We will probably be watching this closely tomorrow. Good night.

UPDATE: Local reporter (St. Louis) Derrick Goold confirms the negotiations, but seems to be cautious, given Arenado’s opt-out and the big remaining salary.

UPDATE II: And now a local Denver report is putting the brakes on the business and reintroducing Braves as a possible suitor. Is that semantic? Legitimate resistance? Suspiciously useful information leaking systematically in order to preserve influence? We’ll see!

(Photo by Getty Images)

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