Photographer: Benjamin Girette / Bloomberg
Photographer: Benjamin Girette / Bloomberg
The French government is postponing an agonizing decision to lock up the country once again, considering options to slow down new variants of the Covid-19, as the current curfew is considered insufficient.
President Emmanuel Macron “asked for further analysis” on the spread of the virus before deciding on any new restrictions, said government spokesman Gabriel Attal after a defense cabinet meeting on Wednesday. Maintaining the status quo is “unlikely”, as the national 6 pm to 6 am curfew is not doing enough, and a rigid block is an option being considered, he said.
Macron is under pressure to close the economy for the third time in less than a year, while doctors and researchers raise the alarm about coronavirus mutations spreading across the country.
Still, with a presidential race coming up next year, the French leader also has to deal with criticism of how he handled the crisis, including a slow start to the vaccination campaign. And while the rise in cases and deaths in the UK demonstrates the dangers of new variants of the virus, disturbances in the Netherlands against the government’s curfew show the risks of stricter measures.
Risk of agitation
Christophe Castaner, head of Macron’s party in the National Assembly, told the newspaper Le Parisien that there was a risk of “civil disobedience” in France too, should a new blockade be imposed.
Voters have far less appetite for strict measures now than they did at the start of the pandemic, with 93% of adults approving the first block, compared with only 67% in favor of a third, according to a recent Elabe survey Research.
“I know there is fatigue,” said Attal during the press conference. The decision to tighten the measures will depend on health indicators, he said.
France’s second blockade began in late October and ended in mid-December with a curfew that was extended earlier this month. It brought only partial relief to the health care system, with hospitalizations and intensive care patients remaining more than five times higher than in August.
Economic Contraction
Restaurants, cafes, clubs, theaters, cinemas and sports facilities have been closed since October and are being supported by government aid, as are many areas of the economy.
A third block would cause an economic contraction of 10% to 18% compared to pre-crisis levels, according to a study by the Ministry of Finance cited by Parisien, depending on the severity of the measures. During the first – and strictest blockade – in the spring of 2020, activity declined by more than a third.
Although the government is betting on a strong recovery of its economy in the second half of the year, another blockade would threaten its growth forecasts.
Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire called the third blockade a “last resort” on Wednesday. A recent survey by the French statistics agency showed growing concern among households in January, as consumers plan to save more money for difficult times. Consumer sentiment is at its lowest level since November.
“Let’s see where we are,” said Le Maire. “There is no rush.”
The UK’s most contagious variant of the virus accounted for 9.4% of cases in an analysis of positive tests in the Paris region between 11 and 21 January. Across France, hospitalizations have increased in the past two weeks to the highest level since early December, and the number of Covid’s critically ill patients in intensive care has risen to more than 3,000 this week.
Macron could still make a final decision in the coming days – the defense office, a small, united group of ministers that gathers around the president and the prime minister, met on weekends in the past.
– With the help of Helene Fouquet and William Horobin
(Adds assessment of the current curfew in the first paragraph, economic impact of the blockade in the 10th.)