UK Coronavirus variant Polled for Higher Risk for Younger People

An initial hypothesis, scientists say, is that one of the virus’s genetic mutations makes it better for invading a larger number of cells within the body, leading to serious illnesses in people who with previous variants of Covid-19 would have only mild symptoms or none at all. symptom.

David Strain, a doctor and instructor from the medical school at the University of Exeter who is also treating patients with Covid-19, said the initial research shows a variant of the virus that is like a thief who has become better and has invaded vulnerable cells in this case, not houses.

“We think that’s why it is making people sicker, as well as being more communicable,” said Dr. Strain.

Virologists suspect it is a specific mutation known as N501Y in the new variant’s spike protein, which has increased its ability to enter and infect human cells and move more efficiently through the human body.

Some doctors, like Dr. Strain, think this is behind the increase in younger people and women – who during most of the pandemic fell ill at lower rates – ending up in the hospital.

Some things, say doctors and scientists, do not appear to have changed with the new variant. Once hospitalized, patients seem to have the same chance of survival as before and doctors cannot tell, by symptoms, which variant the patient has.

In London, southeastern and eastern England, where the new variant was first identified in a September 20 test sample, the average age of patients admitted to intensive care units fell from 61.4 years between September and the end from November to 58.9 years from December 1st to January 21st.

The proportion of women admitted to the ICU went from 30.1% to 35.1% in the same period. Data from the rest of the country show a similar pattern.

By December, the proportion of 18- to 54-year-olds admitted to British hospitals with Covid-19 also began to increase, before a national blockade was imposed on 4 January.

Not all doctors are convinced that this is explained by mutations in the new variant. Some think it can also be a matter of behavior change, with more people, especially the younger ones, mixing during the holiday season and becoming infected.

Luke Allen, a local doctor in Oxford, for example, said he has treated more younger patients, but that he is treating more patients with Covid-19 in general, and the proportion of people appears to be the same as the first peak.

He attributes the increase in numbers to the greater transmissibility of the new variant and to the increase in socialization during the holidays. “This increases the chances of contacting us,” said Allen.

There is still considerable debate about whether the new variant is indeed more deadly, as some research suggests.

The new variant, which has become the dominant version in the UK, is estimated to be 30% to 70% more infectious than the previous varieties. Last week, a government health advisory panel said studies suggested that there was a realistic possibility that it could also be 30% to 40% more deadly than the previous variant.

Aides say his conclusions are tentative. “While there is uncertainty, we cannot always hope for certainty,” said Peter Horby, chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group, or Nervtag.

Julian Tang, clinical virologist and professor of respiratory medicine at the University of Leicester, said more evidence is needed to prove that the new variant is more deadly, as social mixing is allowed during the winter months, greatly accelerating hospitalization rates .

“Viruses generally mutate to be more transmissible and less lethal,” he said.

The spread of the new variant coincided with a huge increase in the number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 and an increase in the number of people dying from the disease in the UK, putting the state health service under unprecedented pressure. Covid-19-related deaths in the UK have been close to 100,000 since the pandemic began.

The disease caused by the variant so far does not look any different from that caused by its ancestors, but since the virus itself is able to move through the patient’s system more easily, it can overtake the body’s immune response, doctors suspect.

“If you are getting a much stronger connection, you may need a lower infectious dose to become infected, which would increase the risk of transmission,” said Dr. Horby. “So if it is able to spread between cells much faster inside the lungs, it can increase the rate of disease and the rate of inflammation, which can progress faster than your body can respond.”

To determine whether the new variant was more deadly, the scientists analyzed data from about 850,000 cases of coronavirus tested in the community, where they knew which variant of the virus each person had, including between 1,400 and 1,900 people who died.

“You have to compare people who are as similar as possible to each other,” said John Edmunds, author of one of the studies at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

The researchers combined groups of people based on age, sex and ethnicity, as well as income and where they lived, to reduce the effect that pressure on hospitals can have on mortality rates.

Dr. Edmunds’ group found that if two similar people had the coronavirus, the person who had the new variant was about 30% more likely to die from the disease it causes. A group at Imperial College London found a similar probability of mortality with the new variant compared to its ancestor. Researchers at the University of Exeter found a 91% increase in mortality risk with the new variant, although that may be because the population examined is older, said Strain.

Another study by Public Health England estimates that the chances of dying after infection with the new variant are about 65% higher than with the old version.

The results are preliminary and as only about 10% of all cases in the UK are known to have the virus variant, it may not be representative of the population as a whole.

Write to Joanna Sugden at [email protected] and Max Colchester at [email protected]