There is only one safe way to become an eligible voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame: to compile 10 consecutive years of membership in the Baseball Writers Association of America. A different group considers managers, referees, executives and players long retired, but since its founding in 1936, Hall has always asked writers to be the main judges for the game’s greatest tribute. The latest election results will be announced on Tuesday.
However, not even the most experienced and knowledgeable writer could understand the game as well as a player. What if voters came from the bench instead of the newsroom? Perhaps, with their intimate perspective, players could more easily agree on selecting the best of the best.
“I think they would certainly reach consensus,” said Ben Davis, a former San Diego, Seattle and Chicago White Sox catcher. “You know who the best guy in your league is. When you’re working out your game plan, there’s always a guy you won’t let go of. It is the same for each team. “
Ryan Spaeder, author and statistician, has been seeking those opinions in recent years, inspired by a conversation with Kevin Youkilis, the former All-Star player. When Youkilis suggested that anyone with major league experience vote in the Hall of Fame, Spaeder decided to vote as much as he could find.
On Monday afternoon, Spaeder got 76 players to take part in this year’s poll, from Hall of Fame members like Carlton Fisk and Larry Walker to players with brief careers like Steve Holm and Bucky Jacobsen. In Spaeder’s survey, only three candidates reached the 75% induction limit: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Todd Helton.
The first returns among the writers produced a different, somewhat unlikely choice: Curt Schilling, the powerful, obstinate postseason pitcher and vocal critic of the news media who promoted the QAnon conspiracy theory. Of the 182 BBWAA votes made public late Monday afternoon – as computed by Ryan Thibodaux on Twitter – only Schilling was over 75 percent, although Bonds (72.5 percent) and Clemens (72) were soon behind.
Some voters opted out of the process, citing the difficulty of applying the Hall of Fame character guidelines to players who used performance-enhancing drugs, especially in the pre-test era. Some organizations, like the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times and the Washington Post, prohibit writers from voting for awards, believing that writers should report the news, not make the news.
Writers who do not disclose their ballots tend to be more selective, so that the support of most players decreases when the full results are released. Among the polls, however, the difference between the opinions of the player and the writer is not as pronounced as it seems.
No candidate reached 80 percent among voting groups. Candidates in the 40-49 percent range among writers (Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel) were grouped between 53 and 65 percent among players – better, but still below the induction requirement. Helton, the longtime Rockies hitting player who played games at home in batters’ paradise, got far more support from players than from writers, but he also won more new votes among old writers than any other candidate and had a vote above 50 percent in its third year of voting.
“Just as you cannot control who plays on the schedule, you cannot control WHERE you play when called upon,” wrote Schilling on Spaeder’s website. “He performed at a Hall of Fame level in an incredible career. He also receives much less recognition as an advocate than he should. ”
Fisk told Spaeder he would vote for Schilling, Vizquel, Wagner, Mark Buehrle, Torii Hunter, Andy Pettitte and Aramis Ramirez – leaving out Bonds and Clemens. Walker selected a maximum of 10 candidates, including Bonds and Clemens, but two members of the Hall of Fame – who asked Spaeder to remain anonymous – were more petty. One voted only for Helton, Vizquel, Scott Rolen and Jeff Kent, and another replied, “I would not vote for anyone on the current eligibility list.”
Eric O’Flaherty, the former reliever, acknowledged being divided over voting on steroid-linked players, but said the widespread use of amphetamines also gave players an advantage. Since voters completely ignored the use of these drugs – also known as greenies – he could not penalize players for using other performance enhancers.
“I usually end up thinking that steroids should go in because I got a greenie once and I felt I could build a spaceship three minutes later,” wrote O’Flaherty, explaining his vote on Spaeder’s website. “I launched that day and had an easy inning and would have done 12 more innings if they left me.”
O’Flaherty also voted for Schilling, explaining simply: “he was very good at baseball”. No player addressed the details of Schilling’s controversial presence on social media, although only 57.9% voted for him, compared with 75.3% of writers.
Schilling himself voted for Helton, Jones, Kent, Rolen, Vizquel, Wagner and Bobby Abreu, providing Spaeder with a series of statistics and emphasizing the importance of defense, especially with Rolen and Vizquel.
“If defense is important, which goes far beyond what voters in the Hall of Fame consider, then both are blockades,” he wrote.
John Baker, a former Marlins, Padres and Cubs catcher, included five players linked to performance enhancers – Bonds, Clemens, Sheffield, Manny Ramirez and Sammy Sosa – among his 10 selections. It would be naive, Baker wrote, to assume that all current Hall of Fame members were immaculate.
“How do you think people threw chocolate milk for 20 years?” he wrote, adding later, “Induce Bonds and Clemens, bring Sammy back to Wrigley (and Cooperstown) and be willing to accept the idea that context and nuances are important for growth and understanding.”
Baker called Bonds the greatest hitter of all time, clearly noting that baseball was not integrated when Ted Williams began his career in 1939. Davis said the exclusion of Bonds was disconcerting.
“The fact that Bonds isn’t just impresses me, it really does,” he said. “You can say what you want about what he picked up, but he is the best baseball player to ever walk the earth, period. It’s not even close. “
Many writers share this view, but probably not enough that Bonds, Clemens – or anyone else, perhaps – gets the call of his life on Tuesday.