Coronavirus deaths and cases per day in the U.S. have dropped sharply in recent weeks, but are still at alarming levels, and the effort to extinguish COVID-19 is becoming an increasingly urgent race between the vaccine and the mutant virus.
The government’s leading infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said that the improvement in numbers across the country appears to reflect a “natural peak and then stagnation” after a holiday peak, rather than the arrival of the vaccine in mid-December.
Deaths averaged just under 3,100 a day, compared with more than 3,350 less than two weeks ago. The average number of new cases is about 170,000 per day, after reaching a peak of almost 250,000 on January 11. The number of COVID-19 hospitalized patients dropped to about 110,000 from a maximum of 132,000 on January 7.
States that have been hot spots in recent weeks, like California and Arizona, showed similar improvements during the same period.
On Monday, California suspended regional home stay orders in favor of county-by-county restrictions and ended the curfew at 10 pm. The move will allow restaurants and churches to resume outdoor operations and hairdressing and nail salons to reopen in many places, although local authorities may maintain stricter rules.
Elsewhere, school districts in Minnesota have begun to bring elementary school students back for personal learning. The school system in Chicago, the nation’s third-largest district, hoped to bring teachers back on Monday to prepare for students to return next month, but the teachers’ union declined.
“I don’t think that the dynamics of what we are seeing now with the plateau is significantly influenced – it will be soon – but still by the vaccine. I just think it’s the plateau’s natural course, ”Fauci told NBC’s“ Today ”program.
Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metric sciences at the University of Washington, said the expected increase in the holiday has been reduced by people traveling less than expected, and an increase in wearing masks in response to spikes in infections has since helped. to reduce the numbers. But he warned that there is a risk of prematurely celebrating progress and relaxing social detachment and wearing masks.
Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Safety, said that very few people have been vaccinated so far to have a significant impact on virus trends. She said she cannot predict how long it will take for the effects of the vaccines to be reflected in the numbers.
Rivers said he is concerned that the most contagious variants of the virus could lead to a deadly resurgence later this year.
“I think we were on the right track to have a good – or rather, at least – spring and summer, and I’m concerned that the variants may be throwing us a curved ball,” she said.
Across the country, about 18 million people, or less than 6% of the U.S. population, received at least one dose of the vaccine, including about 3 million who received the second injection, according to the Centers for Control and Prevention of Diseases. Only slightly more than half of the 41 million doses distributed to the states by the federal government were injected into the arms, according to the CDC count.
The virus killed more than 419,000 Americans and infected more than 25 million, with a widely cited model from the University of Washington projecting that the death toll will reach around 569,000 on May 1.
And health experts have warned that the most contagious and possibly deadliest variant that is sweeping Britain is likely to become the dominant source of infection in the United States in March. It has been reported in more than 20 states so far. Another mutant version is circulating in South Africa.
The more the virus spreads, the more opportunities it has to mutate. The fear is that this will end up making vaccines ineffective.
To protect himself against the new variants, President Joe Biden on Monday added South Africa to the list of more than two dozen countries whose residents are subject to coronavirus-related limits on entering the United States.
Most non-American citizens who have been to Brazil, Ireland, Great Britain and other European nations will be prevented from entering the United States by the rules reinstated by Biden after President Donald Trump acted to relax them.
Fauci said that scientists are already preparing to adjust COVID-19 vaccines to combat mutant versions.
He said that there is “a very slight and modest decrease” in the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines against these variants, but “there is sufficient cushioning with the vaccines that we have that we still consider them effective” against both.
Moderna, maker of one of the two vaccines used in the U.S., announced on Monday that it is starting to test a possible booster dose against the South African variant. Moderna’s CEO, Stephane Bancel, said the move came from “over-caution,” after preliminary laboratory tests suggested the injection produced a weaker immune response to this variant.
The vaccine’s launch in the United States was marked by disorder and confusion, with states complaining in recent days about scarcity and inadequate births that forced them to cancel mass vaccination events and tens of thousands of consultations.
New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said the shortage is preventing the city from opening more large-scale vaccination posts.
“Here you have New York City ready to vaccinate at the rate of half a million New Yorkers a week, but we don’t have the vaccine to keep up with,” said de Blasio. “Many other places in the country are ready to do much more.”
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Associated Press writers in the United States contributed to this report.