New Tennessee sports director Danny White has dramatically changed the prospect of looking for Volunteer Chief Coach. And if you’re a Vols fan, Josh Heupel is a reason to feel good.
Heupel is not a candidate for UT, but he is proof that White can adjust during a coaching search and still deliver. Perhaps more impressive than Scott Frost’s hiring of UCF for White in 2015 (19-7 over two seasons, including a 13-0 campaign) or Lance Liepold for Buffalo in ’14 (37 wins and three cups) is Heupel to the Knights in ’17 Frost and Liepold were the main choices. This may not happen in Knoxville.
When Frost left UCF for Nebraska, White’s main targets (Kevin Sumlin, Neal Brown) did not end up in Orlando. Heupel, then the Missouri OC, said yes, and has had a 28-8 record with the Knights ever since. White’s current task in a SEC program hindered by years of administrative malfeasance will require an astute assessment of the market and possibly a difficult sale for a quality candidate.
How White changes Tennessee research
Last week, a coach who was interviewed while searching for White’s Buffalo praised his process and his football acumen to me, describing Tennessee’s new AD as “decisive and real”.
This is a reporter’s way of saying that top candidates now know they won’t have to deal with Crazy Tennessee. They will not have to deal with ex-DA Phil Fulmer, they will not have to guess which corner of the reinforcement network Vol is really involved in administration and they will work for someone with an excellent track record of hiring coaches who, based on their reputation, will communicate the reality of the situation in Knoxville with respect to the ongoing investigation of the NCAA in a transparent manner.
At this point, I expect White to steal an FBS technician with a contract that is logical in relation to what is coming from the NCAA. I also believe that White will try as hard as possible to get a name big enough to energize both donors and private soldiers to support yet another period of reconstruction in Knoxville.
Let’s divide the field into three categories: The best available, the publicly mentioned names and the top coaches that I believe White can try to steal:
College football ‘Big 3’
Of the top seated coaches considered the best available for any job – Matt Campbell of Iowa State, Luke Fickell of Cincinnati and Billy Napier of Louisiana – Campbell and Fickell were not options for UT before White arrived, and I believe it is still true afterwards. They said that Fickell has already told UT that he is happy with the Bearcats. To that end, I feel confident to say that Fickell is not leaving UC for anything less than Notre Dame or Ohio State. Perhaps, perhaps, if Penn State opened (see below), he would have a conversation, but the man with six children seems destined for the most prominent American job in Catholicism.
Napier is the wild card here. He was born in Cookeville, Tennessee, and grew up in Chatsworth, Georgia, literally just over the state border. He also just moved away from South Carolina and Auburn, a story that takes different paths depending on who you talk to. At face value, Auburn (even in the Saban Era) is arguably a better show than sanctioned Tennessee, but context may be the key here. White would almost certainly not chain Napier with demands or warnings from the team, specifically Kevin Steele in both situations.
Napier would be a big win for UT. They can spread the narrative that he turned down other league jobs to return “home” while preaching patience during the reconstruction. He’s a Saban Tree trainer familiar with the SEC’s sausage factory, but, unlike Pruitt, he’s an offensive guy with experience as a head coach.
Publicly mentioned names
White has a reputation for defying media predictions. He mentioned this specifically Last week.
At the moment, I am convinced that the three most mentioned candidates – PJ Fleck from Minnesota, Sonny Dykes from SMU and Clemson OC Tony Elliott – have been legitimately evaluated, but will not get the job unless White has to make a third or fourth choice.
Of the three, Fleck is most likely here. His media-friendly personality would fill what could be a substantial gap between now and whenever a post-sanctions UT can be competitive again. He is also a head coach who did a MAC program for New Year’s Six and won 11 games in Minnesota in 2019.
Do I think these names are an intentional smokescreen? So-so? I don’t want to say yes, because that would imply that these coaches are not quality candidates or that they are being used. But I believe White is using the luxury of a public list to distract himself from a larger “get” attempt.
Seated P5 Tennessee coaches may try to make hurricane
Scott Satterfield, Louisville – I’m cheating here because I’ve seen Satt mentioned for work in some places, but nowhere near as much as Fleck, Dykes and Elliott. His first Cardinals team finished 8-5, but Louisville finished 4-7 in 2020. Take the 2020 records for whatever you want; I tend to ignore them, but not everyone in the industry does. It is here that I mention that Satterfield was linked to the opening of South Carolina last fall and ended up returning to UL without extension or increase by AD Vince Tyra. I don’t think this relationship is in the best place. Satt would take the job at UT, but I don’t think he qualifies as a “wow” hire right now.
Dave Doeren, NC State – If Phil Fulmer had done this research instead of White, Doeren would probably be at the top of the list. He was part of Fulmer’s “second half” search in 2017, after ex-AD John Currie was fired and ended up with Pruitt (he was originally examined by Currie). He also almost got Ole Miss’s job during the then provisional Matt Luke that same year. Wolfpack ended at 8-4 in 2020 and it looked better than most of the industry expected and uh, yeah … I can’t see this happening with White. I am excluding Doeren because of his popularity with the previous regime (stupid logic, but popular in this industry) and his lack of national power.
Neal Brown, West Virginia – Brown has experience at the SEC as an assistant in Kentucky (and former player). He won Ed Orgeron’s LSU during Troy’s reconstruction, which means he won a SEC national title more recently than Tennessee. He’s .500 in West Virginia, but they’re trending up; several Big 12 assistants commented that Brown appears to be ahead of the WVU rebuild. His name was released at the end of the Auburn search, but the show went to Bryan Harsin, who is represented by the same agency as Brown. Honestly, I’m not sure if UT supporters would see this as a “big deal,” but Brown is popular with ADs and industry people.
James Franklin, Penn State – How bad was 2020 in Happy Valley? This remains to be determined. Hypothetically, let’s assume that one or both parties here want to move on (and let’s all pause and see how healthy the Cal / Dykes divorce ended up being). Franklin was distressed to leave Vanderbilt in 2013, not because Commodores are like the PSU, but because he realized the potential for recruitment and development at the SEC. His last two recruiting classes at Vandy were ranked above Penn State’s by 247 (2012: VU No. 46, Penn State No. 47; 2013: VU No. 25, Penn State No. 33).
Also – right or wrong – when you’re winning nine games a season in the toughest job in the best league, you can’t help but think about how good it would be in a strength program. Is Tennessee an energy program at the SEC? Not now. Penn State was in the Big Ten when he got there? Not at all, but they are a solid number 2 or 3 now. Franklin’s personality would apply well to the road ahead in Knoxville.
The reality check is that Penn State just extended Franklin last year with a deal that reaches $ 7 million a year, including incentives. This seems very steep for UT at the moment, especially if they end up having to pay Pruitt part or all of his buyout.
Mike Norvell, Florida – It depends on what you think about the state of Florida turbulence. If you are inclined to believe it is the worst case scenario, Norvell is not unlikely to think the same and want to leave. As head coach of Memphis, he was audited by several SEC programs. Some did not love him and vice versa. In terms of optics, if you’re in Tennessee, you’re not hiring the head coach from Memphis, you’re hiring the one from Florida. And if you’re a member of #FSUTwitter, my real name is William Elliott Jr. and this is my twitter.
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss – Sure, why not. I read Twitter. I know what the lunatic wants and I don’t have to explain myself.
RYAN NANNI, BANNER SOCIETY EDITOR: Steven, this is your real job.
Well. He meets all the requirements: P5 coach seated, offensive spirit, great recruitment. He even has experience in the league. And it would give Tennessee the satisfaction of snatching a head coach from the SEC, and something similar to closing after Kiffin left the Vols after the 2009 seasons. This move is unlikely, potentially hilarious and would be incredible in every good and bad way imaginable. . I can’t decide if it’s a very wild notion for White or just what it takes to make him look like a big boss.