It’s official. Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is officially on the market – the first general choice in the 2009 NFL draft. While this news doesn’t set the NFL world on fire in exactly the same way as trade rumors circulating around Houston’s (current) 25-year-old QB Deshaun Watson, Stafford is one of the most intriguing veteran options available in recent seasons.
Two of the best draft analysts out there are The Draft Network’s Kyle Crabbs and Joe Marino. In yours The Draft Dudes podcast, Kyle and Joe discussed how it would be obvious for the Denver Broncos to switch to Stafford and instead discussed what it would be a fair cost to get the quarterback. Here’s the crux (listen at 32: 23-35: 01).
“This is a (first round) and choices and a player,” said Crabbs.
“One, Drew Lock, DaeSean Hamilton and a two (second round)?” Marino asked.
“Yes,” said Crabbs. “And the reason for being [Stafford’s] will be 33 this season, he is under contract for the next two seasons, you will have an extended track in addition. If he continues to play well, extend it and keep him under contract. This is not just a one-year payment. Financially, you’re paying him $ 43 million over two years for a guy who’s one of the top 10 physical talents in the position. ”
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The argument for Stafford-to-Denver
The proposed package to acquire Stafford from The Draft Dudes it was a bit of a stretch, suggesting that Denver should switch choices # 9, 40, a second round of 2022, Drew Lock, and wideout DaeSean Hamilton. Marino and Crabbs compared this commercial offer designed for Stafford with what Denver ordered Jay Cutler in the infamous 2009 trade with the Chicago Bears.
However, the big warning they missed was that Stafford will be 33 years old, while Cutler was only 25 when the Broncos moved him to Chicago. Obviously, Stafford is a better known and proven commodity, but the age difference is substantial.
The exchange that should be compared when discussing a Stafford-to-Denver scenario was Carson Palmer’s Cincinnati-Oakland exchange, which sent a first and second round player to Bengals in 2011.
The Ask for Stafford: A Pretty Penny
If Denver really wants to enter the Stafford trade market, there is no doubt that the Broncos will have to be willing to give up the ninth overall choice. Some may say it is a very high cost, but that is just the reality of the situation for a quarterback like Stafford, given his talent, remaining years of play and contract.
In addition to the first round, it will probably be necessary to choose Day 2 this year and a talent of initial caliber. Although Draft Dudes suggested Hamilton, I think Tim Patrick would be a more interesting commercial chip, given the arid desert that is the Lions wide receiver room entering this off-season.
It is rumored that, with the capital that Lions will receive for Stafford, the team will try to package the exchange and general choice # 7 to be aggressive and move up to a quarterback. While Trevor Lawrence of Clemson will be off the table, undoubtedly one from BYU’s Zach Wilson, North Dakota’s Trey Lance or Ohio State’s Justin Fields will be within reach.
These rumors suggest that adding Lock to a potential trading package may be nothing more than a lottery ticket thrown out in the eyes of Lions. Upside? Sure, but not in the same realm as the positive perception of the best potential customers in this draft class.
Stafford Attributes Seduction
At 33, Stafford is not a spring chicken, but he still has 3 to 8 years of good play in the tank. He is currently among the 8 to 12 most talented QBs in the NFL.
Although the ‘QBWinz’ crowd indicates the Lions record of wins / losses throughout his career, the different view of Stafford’s management must include an understanding of his circumstances in Detroit. Whether it’s the incredible race of absolutely horrible defenses from Detroit or the lack of a racing game to help dictate the defenders in the box, there can be no doubt that Lions have historically done a horrible job around Stafford with a competent list year after year . It may not be surprising for a team that has wasted players like Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson, but I digress.
The blocking issue
The Broncos are continually being linked to defenders in the early stages of this off-season, probably largely due to Lock’s general perception of the NFL. Occupying fifth place in many important categories, leaving consecutive seasons with an injury that cost a lot of time, and with only two years left of contractual control over the previous choice of the second round, Denver is by no means “married” to lock up.
Those close to the situation may cry out for patience and more time, denouncing the circumstances surrounding Lock’s situation as “not fair”, but the league is simply not fair. You either overcome adversity or disappear in the annals of time.
These are the opportunities in the NFL. It will never be fair. Fair or not, Lock did not do enough to guarantee a unquestionable starting point for the Broncos in 2021. As the kids say, “it’s the break”.
Paton would be remiss if he didn’t call Detroit
The merit of whether or not Denver’s new GM George Paton should summon Stafford is indisputable. Stafford would be an upgrade in the defender’s position, giving the Broncos a flag in the top 12, surrounded by an insane level of talent, albeit young, on the offensive side of the ball. However, the most important questions to ask are: what will be the cost? And is this cost worth it?
It would take some sort of prejudice (if not cognitive dissonance) to suggest that Paton should not pick up the phone and call to check the cost of acquiring Stafford. It remains to be seen whether Paton will be willing to give up a decent amount of recruiting capital in a market full of teams absolutely desperate for a defender this year, such as the San Francisco 49ers, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Football Team and the New England Patriots .
It will all come down to what the Broncos think of Stafford, the current squad, Lock, and what gives this team the best chance to compete on the offensive steamroller that has become AFC West.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.