WASHINGTON (AP) – President Joe Biden is facing the political risk that accompanies the great ambition.
As one of his first acts, Biden offered a comprehensive review of immigration last week, this would provide a path to US citizenship for about 11 million people who are illegally in the United States. It would also codify provisions that would eliminate some of President Donald Trump’s characteristic hard-line policies, including the attempt to eliminate existing and protected legal status for many immigrants brought to the US as children and crackdown on asylum rules.
It is precisely the type of measure that many Latin activists longed for, especially after the difficult approach of the Trump era. But it must compete with Biden’s other striking legislative goals, including a $ 1.9 trillion plan to fight the coronavirus, an infrastructure package that promotes green energy initiatives and a “public option” to expand health insurance.
In the best of circumstances, it would be difficult to enact such a wide range of legislation. But in a narrowly divided Congress, this could be impossible. And that has the Latinos, the fastest growing electoral bloc in the country, concerned that Biden and Congressional leaders may strike deals that weaken the finished product too much – or miss anything.
“This cannot be a situation where simply a visionary bill – a message bill – is sent to Congress and nothing happens to it,” said Marielena Hincapié, executive director of the National Immigration Law Center, which defends low-income immigrants income. “There is an expectation that they will comply and that there will be a mandate now for Biden to be openly pro-immigrant and have a political imperative to do so, and the Democrats too.”
If Latinos feel betrayed, the political consequences for Democrats can be long-lasting. The 2020 election provided several warning signs that, despite Democratic efforts to build a multiracial coalition, Latin support may be at risk.
Biden has been viewed with skepticism by some Latin activists for his association with former President Barack Obama, who has been called “chief deportor” record number of immigrants who were removed from the country during his administration. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont defeated Biden in last year’s Nevada primaries and California primaries, which served as the first barometers of the Latin vote.
In his race against Trump, Biden won the support of 63% of Latin voters, compared to Trump’s 35%, according to AP VoteCast, a poll of more than 110,000 voters across the country. But Trump has narrowed the margin a little in some undecided states, like Nevada, and has also received a shock from Latin men, 39% of whom supported him compared to 33% of Latin women.
Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate since 1996 to take Arizona, partly because of strong grassroots support of Mexican-American groups that have opposed the Republican Party’s strict immigration policies for decades. But he missed Florida for underperforming in his largest Hispanic county, Miami-Dade, where the anti-socialism message of the Trump campaign resonated among Cubans and some American Venezuelans.
Biden also fell short in Texas, although running mate Kamala Harris spent valuable and late campaign time there.. The passage lost some sparsely populated, but heavily Mexican-American counties along the Mexican border, where public security agencies are the main employers and the Republican Party’s zero-tolerance immigration policy resonated.
There were more warning signs for House Democrats, who lost four seats in California and two in South Florida, but failed to get any in Texas. Expanding Hispanic populations reflected in the new US census numbers could see Texas and Florida gain parliamentary districts before the 2022 midterm elections, which could make correcting the problem even more urgent for Democrats.
The urgency does not lose to Biden. He spent months telling immigration advocates that major reforms would be at the top of his to-do list. As vice president, he watched the Obama administration use majorities in Congress to accelerate approval of a bill to stimulate the financial crisis and its health bill, while letting an immigration review languish.
“It means a lot to us to have a new president proposing a bold and visionary immigration reform on day 1. Not on day 2. Not on day 3. Not a year later,” said New Jersey Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, principal sponsor of your camera from the Biden package.
Menendez was part of a bipartisan immigration plan defended by senators from the “Gang of Eight” that collapsed in 2013. Obama then resorted to executive action to offer legal status to millions of young immigrants. President George W. Bush also promoted an immigration package – with the aim of increasing Latinos’ support for Republicans before the 2008 election – only to see him fail in Congress.
Menendez acknowledged that the latest bill will have to find the support of at least 10 Republican senators to overcome the 60-vote barrier and reach the floor, and that he “has no illusions” how difficult it will be.
Former Congressman Carlos Curbelo, a moderate Florida Republican, said Biden may find some support from the Republican Party, but he will likely have to settle for much less than what was in his original proposal.
“Many Republicans are concerned about the primary challenges,” said Curbelo, adding that the defense of Trump and his supporters of cracking down on immigration means that there is “political danger for Republicans.”
But he also said that Democrats could alienate part of their own base, appearing to prioritize the needs of people in the country illegally over the needs of struggling American citizens and therefore “appearing to go beyond the perspective of undecided voters.”
In fact, Democrats have not always aligned themselves universally with an immigration review, arguing that this could lead to an influx of cheap labor that harms American workers. Some of the party’s senators joined the Republicans to sink the Bush bill.
Even so, Latinos have not forgotten past immigration failures and often blame Democrats more than Republicans.
Chuck Roca, head of Nuestro PAC, who spent $ 4 million on ads to boost Biden in Arizona, said that while Hispanics traditionally tend to support Democrats, he has begun to see trends in the past decade when more people are registering. as independent or without party affiliation. These voters can still be regained, he said, but only if Latinos see a real change on important issues like immigration, “even if it is gradually”.
“They need to do something if they want to start reversing the loss of Latin voters,” said Rocha, who led the Latin election campaign for Sanders’ presidential campaign. “They have to do everything in their power now to get the Latinos back.”
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Associated Press writer Alan Fram contributed to this report.