UK chief scientist Patrick Vallance says the new variant of COVID-19 may be more deadly, more research is needed

LONDON – There is evidence that a new variant of the coronavirus first identified in southeastern England carries a greater risk of death than the original strain, the British government’s top scientific adviser said on Friday – although he emphasized that data is uncertain.

Patrick Vallance said at a news conference that “there is evidence that there is a greater risk for those who have the new variant”.

He said that for a 60-year-old man with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that, for 1,000 infected people, approximately 10 are expected to die unfortunately.”

“With the new variant, for 1,000 infected people, about 13 or 14 people are expected to die,” he said.

VIDEO: Dr. Fauci on COVID-19 variants around the world

But Vallance emphasized that “the evidence is not yet strong” and more research is needed.

In contrast to this uncertainty, he said, there is growing confidence that the variant is transmitted more easily than the original coronavirus strain. He said it appears to be between 30% and 70% more transmissible.

Maria Van Kerkhove, technical leader of the World Health Organization at COVID-19, said that studies are underway to examine the transmission and severity of new variants of the virus.

She said that so far “they have not seen an increase in severity”, but that more transmission could lead to “an overburdened health system” and, therefore, more deaths.

British officials say they are confident that vaccines authorized for use against COVID-19 will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.

But Vallance said the scientists are concerned that the variants identified in Brazil and South Africa may be more resistant to vaccines, adding that more research needs to be done.

Concerns about the newly identified variants have spawned a series of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries have closed their borders to travelers from Britain, and the UK has suspended flights from Brazil and South Africa.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there could be more restrictions.

“We may need to go further to protect our borders,” he said.

Britain recorded 95,981 deaths among people who tested positive for coronavirus, the highest confirmed total in Europe.

The UK is currently in a blockade in an attempt to delay the most recent outbreak of the coronavirus outbreak. Pubs, restaurants, entertainment venues and many stores are closed, and people are forced to stay at home.

The number of new infections has started to drop, but deaths remain agonizingly high, averaging more than 1,000 a day, and the number of hospitalized patients is 80% higher than at the first pandemic peak in spring.

Johnson, who is often accused of making overly optimistic predictions about easing coronavirus restrictions, looked bleak.

“We will have to live with the coronavirus in one way or another for a long time,” he said, adding that “it is an open question” when measures can be relaxed.

“At this stage, you need to be very, very cautious,” he said.

Vallance agreed,

“I don’t think this virus is going anywhere,” he said. “It will probably last forever.”

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AP medical writer Maria Cheng contributed to this story.