UK officials say the British variant of the new coronavirus may be more deadly than other strains, but they emphasize that the evidence for this is still very uncertain.
This variant, called B.1.1.7, was first identified in Kent, England, in September 2020 and has since spread around the world. This variant is more contagious, with studies finding that it is about 50 to 70% more transmissible than other strains of wide circulation, Live Science previously reported.
“In addition to spreading faster, it now also appears that there is some evidence that the new variant … may be associated with a higher degree of mortality,” said UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said during a press conference on Friday (January 22).
The data comes from several preliminary studies of mortality rates among people with the new variant compared to rates associated with other strains, according to the BBC. For example, a study by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine looked at 2,583 deaths among 1.2 million people tested for coronavirus in the UK and found that those who had the new variant were about 30% more likely to die in 28 days compared to those infected with other strains, according to data published by the UK Government.
To put this increase into context, Patrick Valance, the UK’s leading scientific advisor, told a news conference that out of a population of 1,000 people in their 60s infected with other strains, around 10 people are expected to die, but with the new variant, the number of deaths would increase to 13 per 1,000.
However, the first cases under analysis may not be representative of the total population. Furthermore, the authorities see this increase in mortality only when they look at the broader population of anyone testing positive for the virus. When they look only at those who are hospitalized, they do not see an increase in mortality with the new variant. However, the authorities noted that the time interval between hospitalization and death can be relatively long and that additional data in the coming weeks will make their analysis more definitive.
The evidence “is not yet strong,” said Valance. “There is a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get precise control over that.”
But officials stressed that all current evidence shows that the COVID-19 vaccines are effective against the new variant, just as they are against other strains.
Originally published on Live Science.